Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 96L)

[NDG]

12z Euro and GFS are pretty close to each other on its forecasted track through day 7.
12z Euro does not really consolidates its vorticity until at least Sunday night if not Monday morning.

8am tomorrow...

https://i.ibb.co/4pvf4Bw/Screenshot-20190731-144719-Firefox.jpg

Overall that's not much of a circulation, that looks more like a small eddy rotating around the main circulation.

[USTropics]

12z GFS ensembles:

[NDG]

Now the Euro kills this in 9 days east of the Bahamas, what good consistency!

The Euro past its 5 day range forecast it has been worthless, very inconsistent.

[Aric Dunn]

Now the Euro kills this in 9 days east of the Bahamas, what good consistency!

Interesting change though. It kills it but thr trough lifts and ridging build in fast to nw. Remnants move over florida..

[TheStormExpert]

Now the Euro kills this in 9 days east of the Bahamas, what good consistency!

Interesting change though. It kills it but thr trough lifts and ridging build in fast to nw. Remnants move over florida..

Where does it make landfall? Wonder if the “eye” of the remnants will go over me!

[TheStormExpert]

Now the Euro kills this in 9 days east of the Bahamas, what good consistency!

The Euro past its 5 day range forecast it has been worthless, very inconsistent.

A few years ago it was beyond the 7-8 day mark. Wonder if these upgrades are doing anything.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It's not lacking in the moisture department. Also gaining quite a bit of spin

Also looks like the blue dry air alligator vs. Moisture scorpions tail (if you have imagination to see it)

[NDG]

Now the Euro kills this in 9 days east of the Bahamas, what good consistency!

Interesting change though. It kills it but thr trough lifts and ridging build in fast to nw. Remnants move over florida..

I don't see that the Euro shows the remnants to move over FL, it clearly shows its decaying low level vorticity recurving out to sea.

[TheStormExpert]

Wind Shear is the reason why it kills it just before the Bahamas.

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1156642510749556737

[NDG]

Now the Euro kills this in 9 days east of the Bahamas, what good consistency!

The Euro past its 5 day range forecast it has been worthless, very inconsistent.

A few years ago it was beyond the 7-8 day mark. Wonder if these upgrades are doing anything.

Yep, I still say that the Euro's best year ever was in 2008, its 7-8 range was always spot on, and since then it has been decaying.
It may be the best model at 3-5 day range but it is no where anything as good as it used to be past 5 days.

[SFLcane]

Now the Euro kills this in 9 days east of the Bahamas, what good consistency!

Interesting change though. It kills it but thr trough lifts and ridging build in fast to nw. Remnants move over florida..

Unless something changes this is not going past 70-75w without recurving. Might not even develop

[SFLcane]

That will recurve anything in the Bahamas.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Now the Euro kills this in 9 days east of the Bahamas, what good consistency!

Interesting change though. It kills it but thr trough lifts and ridging build in fast to nw. Remnants move over florida..

Unless something changes this is not going past 70-75w without recurving. Might not even develop


https://i.imgur.com/TgeBGnD.png

it's very possible that things might change. this is 10 days out.

[N2FSU]

12z UK:

[Frank2]

Also looks like the blue dry air alligator vs. Moisture scorpions tail (if you have imagination to see it)

It's about to get pancaked by dry air - NHC made the right decision to hold off on classifying it for now...

[floridasun78]

12z UK:

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/r3UKzlxY2zr7wegRVbzisrJcOr5r6X_0jAEAaCFSOeFAEb6PIkDmOTSUPF-23-wZhL8M2S8zMzQXvMsrE2fO6Klh_38jZbibWbwahKZUpYpSqYdSRJyykccwU2ifmVAyKG7dyyIgWP8=w2400

show us what rest of uk show cannot find it on site?

[Kingarabian]

Now the Euro kills this in 9 days east of the Bahamas, what good consistency!

The Euro past its 5 day range forecast it has been worthless, very inconsistent.

UKMET as well. What's going on with our Europe based models...

[Siker]

Now the Euro kills this in 9 days east of the Bahamas, what good consistency!

The Euro past its 5 day range forecast it has been worthless, very inconsistent.

UKMET as well. What's going on with our Europe based models...

The heat melted the supercomputers .

[USTropics]

12z ECMWF ensemble plots:

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF ensemble plots:
https://i.imgur.com/IrGJBr5.png

Different from operational that dissipates.