Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 96L)

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northjaxpro
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#321 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Jul 31, 2019 3:21 pm

NDG wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
NDG wrote:
The Euro past its 5 day range forecast it has been worthless, very inconsistent.

A few years ago it was beyond the 7-8 day mark. Wonder if these upgrades are doing anything.


Yep, I still say that the Euro's best year ever was in 2008, its 7-8 range was always spot on, and since then it has been decaying.
It may be the best model at 3-5 day range but it is no where anything as good as it used to be past 5 days.


Yeah, I totally agree with you about this.
The EURO past 5 days is just not anywhere near what it used to be.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#322 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jul 31, 2019 3:31 pm

Image

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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#323 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Jul 31, 2019 3:51 pm

Models are in somewhat of an agreement that it will reach 70W. After that, it's anyone's guess.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#324 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 31, 2019 4:00 pm

We have something new in the surface charts at 18z,a L.

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#325 Postby Dylan » Wed Jul 31, 2019 4:05 pm

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1156670873971175424


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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#326 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Jul 31, 2019 4:15 pm

USTropics wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:
toad strangler wrote:You know what time of year it is when you start seeing the term "thumb ridge" :lol:


What is that? I must have missed that term before. 8-)


It's exactly what it sounds like, a ridge that looks like a thumb print (see image below highlighted in green); amplified by the passing trough.

https://i.imgur.com/6kxRq1t.png



That's about what I was thinking it might be but I wasn't sure.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#327 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Jul 31, 2019 4:19 pm

it's super super early in the hurricane season. Enjoy the recurves while you can, because come end of August, this will be a different story..............
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#328 Postby SoupBone » Wed Jul 31, 2019 4:25 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:it's super super early in the hurricane season. Enjoy the recurves while you can, because come end of August, this will be a different story..............


Unless, you know, the east coast troughiness stays in place and ridging stays somewhat lessened in the Atlantic.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#329 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Jul 31, 2019 4:28 pm

I’m just as skeptical of a recurve as I am of a Bahamas impact.

It’s 10 days out. I learned my lesson from Irma.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#330 Postby BYG Jacob » Wed Jul 31, 2019 4:44 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:I’m just as skeptical of a recurve as I am of a Bahamas impact.

It’s 10 days out. I learned my lesson from Irma.

You would think everybody learned their lesson the first time.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#331 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Jul 31, 2019 4:47 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:I’m just as skeptical of a recurve as I am of a Bahamas impact.

It’s 10 days out. I learned my lesson from Irma.

You would think everybody learned their lesson the first time.

In a parallel universe I guess.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#332 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 31, 2019 4:53 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:it's super super early in the hurricane season. Enjoy the recurves while you can, because come end of August, this will be a different story..............

You can predict the future? :lol:
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#333 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Jul 31, 2019 5:04 pm

18z GFS more bullish, a 1004 mb TS at hour 108.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#334 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 31, 2019 5:12 pm

GFS is a little suspect. it takes it from below 10n to 18 north in a 12 hour period in a couple days before it develops.


GFS legacy does not do that and tracks the wave until it develops at a lower latitude where its currently at.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Wed Jul 31, 2019 5:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#335 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Jul 31, 2019 5:12 pm

we know more by wed next week what models are right look like weakness will be their by time get bahamas
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#336 Postby Kazmit » Wed Jul 31, 2019 5:16 pm

Leeward islands get smoked on this run. :(
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#337 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Jul 31, 2019 5:19 pm

Kazmit wrote:Leeward islands get smoked on this run. :(
what run?
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#338 Postby Ubuntwo » Wed Jul 31, 2019 5:20 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
Kazmit wrote:Leeward islands get smoked on this run. :(
what run?

18z GFS
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#339 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Jul 31, 2019 5:22 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:
Kazmit wrote:Leeward islands get smoked on this run. :(
what run?

18z GFS

ok let see other runs show coming days
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

#340 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 31, 2019 5:24 pm

Oh yeah. Not again please another one for Puerto Rico.There are still many homes with tarps.Wont say nothing more.
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