ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

[StormLogic]

looks like she was getting her act together on the last few daylight frames looking on the sat

[Hurrilurker]

and it looks like it might be heading for us. Trust me, folks, St Maarten can't handle a tropical storm or worse a CAT 1 hurricane. we are still in recovery. Many people are still living under tarps 2 years after Irma. #worried

I’m supposed to be flying out of St. Maarten on Monday afternoon, getting very nervous about this. Even if the plane can take off, if a TS/hurricane is pushing winds & waves ahead of it, the ferry ride from Anguilla to St. Maarten that morning could be brutal (or canceled). Never hoped for a fish more in my life.

[sma10]

My sense over the years is that CV developers at low latitude, early in the season, tend to track more into the Caribbean, than north of PR. Are there any climatology experts that can back me up?

[USTropics]

My sense over the years is that CV developers at low latitude, early in the season, tend to track more into the Caribbean, than north of PR. Are there any climatology experts that can back me up?

Top analogs:

[sma10]

Thank you for the analogs, great stuff.

Amazing that for the top analogs of 96L, only two of them have occurred in the past 25 years

[CrazyC83]

Now 10/70.

2. A broad low pressure system located about 900 miles west-southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is possible during
the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at
about 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for development over the
weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next
week several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[AtlanticWind]

Not really impressed with those analogs as they include September and even October storms.

[USTropics]

Not really impressed with those analogs as they include September and even October storms.

I believe those analogs only use current position and strength as a criteria. Here is a list of storms that have traveled within 100 miles of the current ATCF position (9.5N, 37.4W) and formed in the months of July or August:



src: https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

[Shell Mound]

I would not expect rapid development in the short term. The islands and Bermuda likely face the greatest threat, not the U.S.:

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1156506013723504641



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1156557667269300225



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1156562085641424896



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1156690348711776258



 https://twitter.com/TJ05650196/status/1156585781072486402

[GCANE]

LL Vorts are very broad and disorganized.
I cn't see this making a turn toward the north anytime soon.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1156856334001803265

[Aric Dunn]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1156856334001803265

Its always suspect when models flip flop. 9 times out of then they return back.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1156867880782303232

[cycloneye]

Uncertainty grows as things may be bullish or bearish. Here is what the San Juan NWS discussion has.

Substantial uncertainty still exists for our next tropical
disturbance next Tuesday and Wednesday. The National Hurricane
Center currently suggests it is possible for this system to
develop into a tropical depression several hundred miles east of
the Lesser Antilles. However, there is still a great deal of
forecast model disagreement on the intensity and track of this
system. It is possible for this system to develop into a tropical
cyclone and directly impact the region. However, it is also
possible that it misses our region completely, or that it just
never develops and simply moves over us as an open tropical wave.
Indeed, there is a different forecast model suggesting each one
of those possibilities at this point, and this uncertainty is
common when this far out from the event. As such, we will keep a
close eye on this system to monitor its potential impact on our
region. It is expected that forecast models will begin to converge
on a solution as we approach the weekend.

[HurricaneEnzo]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1156867880782303232

I wouldn't really consider that an excessive amount of SAL. It is also situated pretty far North the waves are to the South of it. I've seen stuff form with more SAL around. If other conditions align I wouldn't expect it to be much of a hinderance.

[Aric Dunn]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1156867880782303232

Yeah i was just about to mention this. Looking at TPW.. it showing some of the dry air nosing out in front of the wave overnight. So we will have to see what happens

[BobHarlem]

I'm thinking the NHC will lower the development chances at 8am. Between this dry air and a TUTT, I really don't think anything is going to happen.

[Shell Mound]

The most obvious problem is that we are still in a weak El Niño pattern, globally, and that is creating unfavourable conditions over the tropical Atlantic/Caribbean.

[jconsor]

I'm thinking this model trend toward delayed development is not a flip-flop - see comments in tweet thread below. I still believe 96L has a decent chance of strengthening once it gets to near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas, assuming it survives any interactions with Hispaniola and assuming the TUTT can close off into an upper low and back to its west.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1156879434105987073

[Siker]

I'm thinking this model trend toward delayed development is not a flip-flop - see comments in tweet thread below. I still believe 96L has a decent chance of strengthening once it gets to near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas, assuming it survives any interactions with Hispaniola and assuming the TUTT can close off into an upper low and back to its west.

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1156879434105987073

Yeah, you can see on RH maps from the 6z vs. previous runs that the whole thing moves fast enough that the system is unable to tilt N/S and begin spinning up. Hard to get sufficient vorticity I guess when neither the southern nor northern half is able to change speed.