Texas Summer 2019

[Brent]

Weekend is trending better up here maybe

Latest guidance is quite a bit more robust in terms of
precipitation coverage early on Saturday as the upstream surface
low and attendant weak front move southward towards North Texas.
00z models indicate a large swath of mid-level showers and
perhaps some embedded thunderstorms accompanying this system into
North Texas throughout the day. This precipitation would be most
likely to affect our eastern zones, while coverage tapers off
farther to the west. As a result, Saturday could feature a
substantial temperature gradient across the CWA as our western
zones still climb into the upper 90s, while the overcast and rainy
eastern zones could struggle to climb out of the low 80s. It may
be difficult to achieve any surface-based convection during this
time, as fairly widespread clouds would limit diurnal
destabilization with most convection rooted closer to 600mb. The
one exception may be out west if isolated storms are able to
develop during the afternoon near the frontal boundary. These
areas would have a greater downburst wind potential with any
storms during peak heating due to a more deeply mixed boundary
layer and inverted-V profiles.

The front and surface low will continue to meander southward
heading into Sunday, with some additional elevated convection
possible north and east of the front due to warm advection. This
would place the greatest convective coverage across our southern
and eastern zones, while convection farther west would likely be
a bit more isolated and diurnally-driven with aid from weak low-
level convergence. The potential for stronger storms may continue
to be limited with a lack of steep lapse rates and cloudier skies
inhibiting low-level destabilization. Highs will likely only be
in the upper 80s and low 90s as slightly cooler post-frontal air
and a decent amount of cloud cover exist over the CWA.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Weekend is trending better up here maybe...

I hope this pans out. On Saturday I'll be at 28 days since the last measurable rain.

[weatherdude1108]

Noticed it's wet out this morning in yard/streets. Looked at my gauge, and it shows 0.25". I didn't even hear it(?). Cool.

I was looking at my posts to see when it last rained, and it looks like it's only been just over a week (Tuesday July 23rd) at my house when I got 0.25", but it feels like it's been a month with how hot and dry it has been. Have cracks in the backyard soil.

[Brent]

Weekend is trending better up here maybe...

I hope this pans out. On Saturday I'll be at 28 days since the last measurable rain.

yeah I hope all those people who got sick of the rain are happy now

[Ntxw]

In Texas there is no middle ground. It doesn't pleasantly turns on and off to appease us. When the rain faucet turns off mid summer...it shuts off for good for a long time.

[Brent]

In Texas there is no middle ground. It doesn't pleasantly turns on and off to appease us. When the rain faucet turns off mid summer...it shuts off for good for a long time.

True that its very much feast or famine here

[Cpv17]

In Texas there is no middle ground. It doesn't pleasantly turns on and off to appease us. When the rain faucet turns off mid summer...it shuts off for good for a long time.

True that its very much feast or famine here

Same here. Less than an inch here the entire month of July after 10”+ May & June.

[bubba hotep]

Model trends were encouraging for N & NE Texas today and FWD raised pops across the board. We are overdue a good storm! Like Ntxw said, it is all or nothing in July and August. However, it seems to have gotten more extreme in recent years? I remember 2015 being really bad. It seems like portions of TX are trending wetter overall but at the same time trending drier in July & August. Obviously, I just talking anecdotally haven't looked at any data (I'm a lazy scientist)

[Brent]

Model trends were encouraging for N & NE Texas today and FWD raised pops across the board. We are overdue a good storm! Like Ntxw said, it is all or nothing in July and August. However, it seems to have gotten more extreme in recent years? I remember 2015 being really bad. It seems like portions of TX are trending wetter overall but at the same time trending drier in July & August. Obviously, I just talking anecdotally haven't looked at any data (I'm a lazy scientist)

2015 wettest year ever at DFW but a record dry streak in the summer

[bubba hotep]

Storms?

[JMoses3419]

Storms?

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/TX_swody2.png

If they do develop main threat is probably wind and/or hail. Then again, even a storm in a marginal risk can drop tornadoes (I’ve seen them do it). If the roommate gets a rare Saturday off and it starts looking better, I might kick it around.

[Ntxw]

8 years ago today in 2011 was the hottest "day" of that summer heatwave. 110F and the rest of the week toggled between 104 to 109 at DFW.

...And then it stayed hot for which from Aug 15-31 it remained above 100F only to continue in September. But what made summer 2011 (aside from the continuous 100s) was that overnight lows often did not dip below 80F very often.

...And really summer 2011 continued right on through winter 2011-2012, one many of us would rather forget .

[Brent]

Storms?

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/TX_swody2.png

NAM has an MCS in the morning right over the metroplex

[Ntxw]

Globals have it too, the rain. We could use it and this time of year you can get locally very heavy downpours with weak steering. For those lucky, but that's July and August, it can dump 2-3" of rain and in one go you are above average.

[bubba hotep]

The daily record rainfall at DFW tomorrow is 1.45 and 0.76 for Sunday. Hi-Res models are indicating that one or both of those records could fall this weekend or DFW could end up with less than 0.10" lol

Also, 1.91" is the monthly normal.

[weatherdude1108]

I hope we get a break this weekend , because after Monday,


Bob Rose:

Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

A Few Showers Possible this Weekend. Otherwise, More Very Hot Temperatures Expected Next Week.

Friday, August 2, 2019 3:31 PM
​

The hot, oppressive days of August are now upon us. This week brought some of the hottest temperatures we've seen so far this summer, with most parts of the Hill Country and Central Texas recording triple-digit temperatures. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the Austin-Camp Mabry weather station recorded a temperature of 103 degrees. These hot readings developed as a result of the ground drying out and from sinking air produced by strong ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere. For most of the week, the ridge has been centered over the Texas Panhandle. But Friday's analysis shows the center of the ridge has shifted west to central New Mexico as a trough of pressure develops from the Ohio Valley south to the Gulf of Mexico. Forecast solutions call for the center of the ridge to remain over New Mexico through Monday, but shift back to Northwest Texas early next week.

This afternoon's weather is shaping up to be mostly sunny, dry and quite hot. High temperatures are forecast to be near 99-102 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. Middle 90s are predicted for the coastal plains where a couple of isolated rain showers and thunderstorms will be possible.

With the ridge parked out to the west, some changes to the current hot and dry pattern are forecast to take place this weekend when a trough of low pressure moving south around the eastern flank of the upper ridge reaches Oklahoma and Arkansas. Forecasts call for an area of rain showers and thunderstorms to develop across Oklahoma and northern Texas Saturday afternoon, with the some of the rain activity sinking south to the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Saturday evening and Saturday night. The probability for rain will be near 40 percent across the Hill Country and near 30 percent across Central Texas Saturday evening and Saturday night. Saturday's weather is predicted to be partly cloudy and hot with high temperatures in the upper 90s.

An outflow boundary associated with Saturday's rain and storms is forecast to settle south to Central Texas on Sunday. This boundary is expected to become a focus for the generation of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the entire region Sunday into Sunday evening. The probability for rain will generally be near 40 percent, decreasing to 20 percent Sunday night. Sunday's sky will be partly to mostly cloudy. Temperatures should be slightly lower, with readings reaching the middle 90s. Forecasts indicate a slight chance for isolated rain showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area Monday, but the probability for rain at any given location will only be 20 percent. Monday's temperature is forecast to reach the mid and upper 90s.

Rain amounts from the weekend rains are not expected to be very high, with most totals averaging around a quarter inch. A couple of isolated totals to around an inch will be possible. While widespread severe thunderstorms are not forecast, some of the weekend storms may produce strong and gusty downburst winds.

After hanging out across New Mexico and the Four Corners region for a few days, the center of the high pressure ridge is forecast to shift back to Northwest Texas Tuesday into Wednesday. The center of the ridge is then forecast to shift southeast towards Central Texas late next week into next weekend. Based on the outlook for the position of the ridge, weather conditions are expected to trend sunny, dry and quite hot beginning next Wednesday, continuing through the following weekend. High temperatures are forecast to be near 100-103 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions beginning next Wednesday, continuing into the weekend. Across the coastal plains, high temperatures are predicted to reach the upper 90s Wednesday and Thursday, and may even flirt with 100 degrees Friday into next weekend.

Today's longer-range solutions call for this dry and very hot pattern to persist through about the middle of August, before temperatures finally begin to trend down a couple of degrees. Barring any potential activity from the tropics, the weather pattern is expected to stay generally dry through at least the middle of the month.

Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

https://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-we ... ather.aspx

[gpsnowman]

Enjoy the weekend break Metroplexers, it's about to get hot next week.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Enjoy the weekend break Metroplexers, it's about to get hot next week.

Ugh. Multiple 100+ days by the end of next week. How long will the heat last? Days are getting shorter and peak temp averages are next weekend?

Meanwhile, my rain drought is officially over. .17" so far this morning, with a few more decent showers still moving y way.

[Ntxw]

Steady light to moderate rain with a few claps of thunder.

Fall is just around the corner.

[bubba hotep]

The Euro shows 100's Thursday through the end of the run. However, it has been too warm this summer beyond D5. The upgraded GFS appears to a significant warm bias and has had DFW constantly over 100 in the longer range. The Euro EPS does have a few days over 100 at DFW lining up with the climo peak of summer heat.