ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

[Ubuntwo]

06z gfs continues the trend of no development.

[gatorcane]

Looks like even if 96l were to have developed into a hurricane near the Bahamas like the models thought a couple of days ago, recurve away from US would probably have been the outcome. For example, look at that deep East Coast trough on the ECMWF:

[SFLcane]

Looks like even if 96l were to have developed into a hurricane near the Bahamas like the models thought a couple of days ago, recurve away from US would probably have been the outcome. For example, look at that deep East Coast trough on the ECMWF:

https://i.postimg.cc/DzyNmVwW/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-atl-10.png

Hey Gator, indeed! Nothing will come close with that December like trof in place.

[wxman57]

Development chances over the next 3-4 days look close to zero. Even if it can escape the giant dust cloud it's embedded within, it'll run into high shear as it nears the Caribbean. Only shot at development would be after it passes east of the Bahamas and is recurving to the NE and out to sea.

[northjaxpro]

-NAO still going strong, as has been the case for much of this Summer.

The -NAO , if it continues to linger, could save us and spare many from tropical cyclone impacts here especially the Southeast U.S. and much of the CONUS Eastern Seaboard.

[AutoPenalti]

:uarrow: -NAO still going strong, as has been the case for much of this Summer.

The -NAO , if it continues to linger, could save us and spare many from tropical cyclone impacts here especially the Southeast U.S. and much of the CONUS Eastern Seaboard.

NAO is forecast to go positive by the middle of August.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: -NAO still going strong, as has been the case for much of this Summer.

The -NAO , if it continues to linger, could save us and spare many from tropical cyclone impacts here especially the Southeast U.S. and much of the CONUS Eastern Seaboard.

NAO is forecast to go positive by the middle of August.

Not anymore.

[NDG]

Development chances over the next 3-4 days look close to zero. Even if it can escape the giant dust cloud it's embedded within, it'll run into high shear as it nears the Caribbean. Only shot at development would be after it passes east of the Bahamas and is recurving to the NE and out to sea.

http://wxman57.com/images/96L.JPG

A lot of that area you circled is makes it look like the dust is much larger than what it is, probably because of the sun's reflections from its angle being early in the morning.
According to this image the dust is not that extensive, but 96L has definitely sucked some of that dust into its circulation. Mid level dry air is another subject is definitely large over the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.

[msbee]

People in St Maarten collectively breathing sighs of relief! PTSD is real!

[CyclonicFury]

The 12z ECMWF shows 96L a bit more defined than the last three runs as it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1157362799766642688

[N2FSU]

6z GFS looks like it splits the wave and keeps the southern vorticity fairly strong:

[Siker]

6z GFS looks like it splits the wave and keeps the southern vorticity fairly strong:

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/aUmoTvaxeN1zQcQvXLcGZuNdRR6xP0fB1SGveGkRlI1d5InWp1eLWJpuUkSDCkCsWlmcSJ2nD81kbewvKiCSpBtNIXrWKVBcBLO-IpbKTklCI2vXExqWpoINRtKMpwaokocEe2QHz18=w2400

Yeah it’s been oscillating back in forth between which lobe would be stronger since it dropped significant development. Reminds me of Harvey and PTC10 or whatever it was which were supposed to be two halves of a merged system but eventually split with Harvey becoming a weak Caribbean cruiser that degenerated soon after the Lesser Antilles.

[Hurricaneman]

It looks as though the GFS has the right idea as it seems to be developing at 12N unlike the EURO which has it at 15N which would be better for this system as it stays south of the TUTT and might just develop in the western Caribbean

[Emmett_Brown]

12Z GFS showing a weak vort max associated with 96L approaching Jamaica by next Thursday... so a chance 96L continues W and makes it into the W Caribbean. However, GFS also predicting westerly wind shear to develop in that area, which dissipates 96L.

[Visioen]

18z GFS has the same Caribbean idea, good vorticity at first but then it moves straight into the shear

[Hurricaneman]

18z GFS has the same Caribbean idea, good vorticity at first but then it moves straight into the shear

https://i.imgur.com/yR0neMH.png

https://i.imgur.com/JejwOSR.png

Looks very El Niño with those westerlies through the Caribbean

[AxaltaRacing24]

18z GFS has the same Caribbean idea, good vorticity at first but then it moves straight into the shear

https://i.imgur.com/yR0neMH.png

https://i.imgur.com/JejwOSR.png

Looks very El Niño with those westerlies through the Caribbean

it's just typical for that area so far man. even 2017 killed harvey in that area in mid to late august and caused everybody to scream season cancel. give it 3 weeks.