Surface Trough/Possible LOW Development across the Southeastern GOM

[northjaxpro]

I have been curiously watchng the extreme Southeast GOM area the past couple of days as a strong, mid to Upper Level Trough has settled in place in the Central Gulf.
Meanwhile, UL difluence due to the proximity of the UL trough, has helped to generate convection across the Southeast GOM. Also, a surface trough axis, which moved from the FL Straits and through extreme South Florida and the Florida Keys the past 24 hours and overnight , is now into the extreme SE GOM as of early this morning.

There is some support from the 00Z runs last night from GFS and GFS Legacy, and Canadian that are trying to develop a surface Low Pressure area in the 1010 -1012 mb range this weekend off the SW coast of Florida. These aforementioned models, along with ICON, and a couple of the mesoscale models, have been hinting at something trying to spin up in the extreme SE GOM the past couple of days.

Just something to watch this weekend. Persistent convection festering in the Southeast GOM could potentially spawn development of a broad , weak Low Pressure with time.

It appears ex-95L has left a large, tail trail of moisture, extending ftom just off the coast of the Carolinas, southwest through the Bahamas, South Florida, and extending to the Southeast Gulf region.

One thing is for certain: Plenty of heavy rainfall potential for much of the Florida peninsula, especially South Florida, as we move into this weekend.

[northjaxpro]

Convection is flaring roughly about 100 miles w/nw of Key West currently on the tail end of the surface trough axis, which extends down into the extreme SE GOM.

06Z GFS this morning shows a 1012 mb Surface Low spinning up in that general vicinity. May be seeing the origin of a developing surface reflection.

[boca]

I see the blow up of thunderstorms off SW Florida on sat let’s see what happens now.

[Aric Dunn]

Surface obs showing a circulation. and radar is starting to show signs and pressure are slightly falling in the area. .. very small window once it starts moving with the shear

95L coming back to life lol

[Aric Dunn]

Surface obs. we have a west, NW and S wind.. nothing like a good old shear system in the gulf. have to have at least one this year... lol will this little guy be it ?

[tropicwatch]

The shear will have to really calm down for this to have a chance. imo

[Aric Dunn]

The shear will have to really calm down for this to have a chance. imo

Like I mentioned.. once it starts moving north faster with the shear it will have a chance. and we can systems that are sheared.. happens all the time.

[northjaxpro]

It looks even better now than it did when I came on and reported the budding convection with the developing circulation. It has a chance to do get going today. As I pointed out in earlier posts, I have had my eye on this potential area for a couple of days. GFS and Canadian did have some support for weak development past two days.

[Aric Dunn]

It looks even better now than it did when I came on and reported the budding convection with the developing circulation. It has a chance to do get going today. As I pointed out in earlier posts, I have had my eye on this potential for a couple of days. GFS and Canadian did have some support for weak development past two days.

yeah 95L is alive !

also the Euro yesterday tried to show some development as it headed towards the big bend area

[DioBrando]

Who thinks this will get named?

[Aric Dunn]

Who thinks this will get named?

That would be a tough one... but possible.

[Aric Dunn]

Depending on where that upper low in central gulf goes.

if it migrates to the west even a 100 miles it would open the eastern gulf to decent upper environment.

[northjaxpro]

I am wondering did 95L get deactivated late yesterday or ladt night. If so, should our SE Gulf Low be designated as a separate entity? I actually thought 95L was no more as of late last night. I could be wrong. Any clarification needed on this?

[northjaxpro]

Depending on where that upper low in central gulf goes.

if it migrates to the west even a 100 miles it would open the eastern gulf to decent upper environment.

Yeah, I agree Aric.

[wxman57]

I see evidence of a weak trof in the area. Surface pressures in the SE Gulf have been rising the past several hours. Development chances around 1-2%. No model support and moderate shear just north of the thunderstorms.

[Aric Dunn]

I am wondering did 95L get deactivated late yesterday or ladt night. If so, should our SE Gulf Low be designated as a separate entity? I actually thought 95L was no more as of late last night. I could be wrong. Any clarification needed on this?

The wave was never lost. was trackable on TPW and the low level winds. this is the remaining energy from 95L

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, Aric, makes sense now. Although most of the energy from 95L from yesterday moved up off the Florida East Coast and through the Bahamas, a piece of the energy from 95L did migrate over into the Southeast GOM last night.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah, Aric, makes sense now. Although most of the energy from 95L from yesterday moved up off the Florida East Coast and through the Bahamas, a piece of the energy from 95L did migrate over into the Southeast GOM last night.

yeah it was also the remainder of the vorticity which is also evident on TPW.

[Aric Dunn]

That large upper ridge over the central plains is shifting east it might stretch out this upper trough over the gulf and push it west.

just have to wait and see.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... rjava.html

[Aric Dunn]

there are westerly inflow CU lines showing up on sat now. the wave axis is tilting too. if it is going to do anything it would have to be in the next 6 to 12 hours..

still showing signs something is trying.

Also we now have a closed wind field. just needs convection on the nw side and it should start to tighten up..