2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[zhukm29]

The Atlantic is struggling and it shows.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1157281630106447873

And how much ACE did the 2004 Atlantic season have before August 2? Essentially none, since the first storm of that season, Alex, had just been named a day earlier. Yet 2004 was anything but a struggling season.

The important part of Dr. Klotzbach's tweet isn't that there hasn't been much ACE, but rather that 90% of ACE is generated after August 2. The Atlantic is struggling because it climatologically should be struggling! Years like 2005 where storms start forming right off the bat are an exception rather than the rule. Even years like 2017 had their struggles early on; there were dozens of "season cancelled" posts after Bret, Don, and Harvey struggled in the MDR at first, with Harvey struggling in late August. But after August 20 or so, a switch seemingly flipped and we got several majors (and cat 5s even) in a row.

I'm not saying that this season will end up like 2017. But a struggling Atlantic on August 2 means little. If the Atlantic is still struggling on September 2, that would give a better indication on the overall direction of the season.

[DioBrando]

The Atlantic is struggling and it shows.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1157281630106447873

And how much ACE did the 2004 Atlantic season have before August 2? Essentially none, since the first storm of that season, Alex, had just been named a day earlier. Yet 2004 was anything but a struggling season.

The important part of Dr. Klotzbach's tweet isn't that there hasn't been much ACE, but rather that 90% of ACE is generated after August 2. The Atlantic is struggling because it climatologically should be struggling! Years like 2005 where storms start forming right off the bat are an exception rather than the rule. Even years like 2017 had their struggles early on; there were dozens of "season cancelled" posts after Bret, Don, and Harvey struggled in the MDR at first, with Harvey struggling in late August. But after August 20 or so, a switch seemingly flipped and we got several majors (and cat 5s even) in a row.

I'm not saying that this season will end up like 2017. But a struggling Atlantic on August 2 means little. If the Atlantic is still struggling on September 2, that would give a better indication on the overall direction of the season.

yeah but we're literally only on the C storm... usually time like now we should be on E...

[Florida1118]

The Atlantic is struggling and it shows.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1157281630106447873

And how much ACE did the 2004 Atlantic season have before August 2? Essentially none, since the first storm of that season, Alex, had just been named a day earlier. Yet 2004 was anything but a struggling season.

The important part of Dr. Klotzbach's tweet isn't that there hasn't been much ACE, but rather that 90% of ACE is generated after August 2. The Atlantic is struggling because it climatologically should be struggling! Years like 2005 where storms start forming right off the bat are an exception rather than the rule. Even years like 2017 had their struggles early on; there were dozens of "season cancelled" posts after Bret, Don, and Harvey struggled in the MDR at first, with Harvey struggling in late August. But after August 20 or so, a switch seemingly flipped and we got several majors (and cat 5s even) in a row.

I'm not saying that this season will end up like 2017. But a struggling Atlantic on August 2 means little. If the Atlantic is still struggling on September 2, that would give a better indication on the overall direction of the season.

yeah but we're literally only on the C storm... usually time like now we should be on E...

We shouldn't "be on E" by now, the 30 year climatology is one named storm forming every other year, and one named storm forming in July.

[zhukm29]

The Atlantic is struggling and it shows.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1157281630106447873

And how much ACE did the 2004 Atlantic season have before August 2? Essentially none, since the first storm of that season, Alex, had just been named a day earlier. Yet 2004 was anything but a struggling season.

The important part of Dr. Klotzbach's tweet isn't that there hasn't been much ACE, but rather that 90% of ACE is generated after August 2. The Atlantic is struggling because it climatologically should be struggling! Years like 2005 where storms start forming right off the bat are an exception rather than the rule. Even years like 2017 had their struggles early on; there were dozens of "season cancelled" posts after Bret, Don, and Harvey struggled in the MDR at first, with Harvey struggling in late August. But after August 20 or so, a switch seemingly flipped and we got several majors (and cat 5s even) in a row.

I'm not saying that this season will end up like 2017. But a struggling Atlantic on August 2 means little. If the Atlantic is still struggling on September 2, that would give a better indication on the overall direction of the season.

yeah but we're literally only on the C storm... usually time like now we should be on E...

The C storm in 2010 didn't form until August, and we ended up finishing at T that season. The season is just beginning; a slow start doesn't always determine the direction of the season!

[shiny-pebble]

[/quote]
yeah but we're literally only on the C storm... usually time like now we should be on E...[/quote]

That means nothing in terms of ACE. 2004 was on A now. (Sorry for format, on my phone right now)


Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk

[zhukm29]

The Atlantic is struggling and it shows.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1157281630106447873

Another thing to note is that we were on E right now in 2017 (and 2017 was anything but normal). However, even 2017 was called a busted season at this time because the first five storms contributed to the lowest ACE total on record!

Here's another tweet from Dr. Klotzbach that shows that the struggling Atlantic now doesn't mean anything. Almost two years to the day, in fact...
 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/892585991579369472

[USTropics]

Here is the last 30 years of data I just compiled for storms starting with C (average formation date is July 30th):

Code: Select all

1989   Jul 31   Chantal
1990   Aug 02   Cesar
1991   Sep 05   Claudette
1992   Sep 22   Charley
1993   Aug 14   Cindy
1994   Aug 17   Chris
1995   Jul 13   Chantal
1996   Jul 25   Cesar
1997   Jul 13   Claudette
1998   Aug 21   Charley
1999   Aug 20   Cindy
2000   Aug 18   Chris
2001   Aug 16   Chantal
2002   Aug 07   Cristobal
2003   Jul 08   Claudette
2004   Aug 10   Charley
2005   Jul 03   Cindy
2006   Aug 01   Chris
2007   Jul 30   Chantal
2008   Jul 19   Cristobal
2009   Aug 16   Claudette
2010   Aug 03   Colin
2011   Jul 20   Cindy
2012   Jun 18   Chris
2013   Jul 07   Chantal
2014   Aug 24   Cristobal
2015   Jul 13   Claudette
2016   Jun 05   Colin
2017   Jun 20   Cindy
2018   Jul 08   Chris


For E storms (average formation date is August 21st):

Code: Select all

1989   Aug 19   Erin
1990   Aug 03   Edouard
1991   Sep 09   Erika
1992   Sep 29   Earl
1993   Aug 25   Emily
1994   Sep 22   Ernesto
1995   Jul 31   Erin
1996   Aug 22   Edouard
1997   Sep 03   Erika
1998   Aug 31   Earl
1999   Aug 24   Emily
2000   Sep 02   Ernesto
2001   Sep 02   Erin
2002   Sep 02   Edouard
2003   Aug 14   Erika
2004   Aug 14   Earl
2005   Jul 11   Emily
2006   Aug 25   Ernesto
2007   Aug 15   Erin
2008   Aug 04   Edouard
2009   Sep 01   Erika
2010   Aug 23   Earl
2011   Aug 02   Emily
2012   Aug 02   Ernesto
2013   Aug 15   Erin
2014   Sep 12   Edouard
2015   Aug 24   Erika
2016   Aug 02   Earl
2017   Jul 31   Emily
2018   Aug 15   Ernesto


See updated climatology tracks for August below, in the past 167 years, we've had 86 tropical systems in the first 10 days of August (an average of about 1 storm every 2 years). Things really ramp up as we progress into the 2nd and especially 3rd parts of August, climatology speaking:

[DioBrando]

Here is the last 30 years of data I just compiled for storms starting with C (average formation date is July 30th):

Code: Select all

1989   Jul 31   Chantal
1990   Aug 02   Cesar
1991   Sep 05   Claudette
1992   Sep 22   Charley
1993   Aug 14   Cindy
1994   Aug 17   Chris
1995   Jul 13   Chantal
1996   Jul 25   Cesar
1997   Jul 13   Claudette
1998   Aug 21   Charley
1999   Aug 20   Cindy
2000   Aug 18   Chris
2001   Aug 16   Chantal
2002   Aug 07   Cristobal
2003   Jul 08   Claudette
2004   Aug 10   Charley
2005   Jul 03   Cindy
2006   Aug 01   Chris
2007   Jul 30   Chantal
2008   Jul 19   Cristobal
2009   Aug 16   Claudette
2010   Aug 03   Colin
2011   Jul 20   Cindy
2012   Jun 18   Chris
2013   Jul 07   Chantal
2014   Aug 24   Cristobal
2015   Jul 13   Claudette
2016   Jun 05   Colin
2017   Jun 20   Cindy
2018   Jul 08   Chris


For E storms (average formation date is August 21st):

Code: Select all

1989   Aug 19   Erin
1990   Aug 03   Edouard
1991   Sep 09   Erika
1992   Sep 29   Earl
1993   Aug 25   Emily
1994   Sep 22   Ernesto
1995   Jul 31   Erin
1996   Aug 22   Edouard
1997   Sep 03   Erika
1998   Aug 31   Earl
1999   Aug 24   Emily
2000   Sep 02   Ernesto
2001   Sep 02   Erin
2002   Sep 02   Edouard
2003   Aug 14   Erika
2004   Aug 14   Earl
2005   Jul 11   Emily
2006   Aug 25   Ernesto
2007   Aug 15   Erin
2008   Aug 04   Edouard
2009   Sep 01   Erika
2010   Aug 23   Earl
2011   Aug 02   Emily
2012   Aug 02   Ernesto
2013   Aug 15   Erin
2014   Sep 12   Edouard
2015   Aug 24   Erika
2016   Aug 02   Earl
2017   Jul 31   Emily
2018   Aug 15   Ernesto


See updated climatology tracks for August below, in the past 167 years, we've had 86 tropical systems in the first 10 days of August (an average of about 1 storm every 2 years). Things really ramp up as we progress into the 2nd and especially 3rd parts of August, climatology speaking:
https://i.ibb.co/ZzkHkK3/Webp-net-gifmaker-1.gif

Hm, I'm just looking at recent years mainly because of global warming trends.

[CyclonicFury]

For those season canceling, I think you should read back at what everyone was saying on August 19 in 2017

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118642&start=1480

[USTropics]

Here is the last 30 years of data I just compiled for storms starting with C (average formation date is July 30th):

Code: Select all

1989   Jul 31   Chantal
1990   Aug 02   Cesar
1991   Sep 05   Claudette
1992   Sep 22   Charley
1993   Aug 14   Cindy
1994   Aug 17   Chris
1995   Jul 13   Chantal
1996   Jul 25   Cesar
1997   Jul 13   Claudette
1998   Aug 21   Charley
1999   Aug 20   Cindy
2000   Aug 18   Chris
2001   Aug 16   Chantal
2002   Aug 07   Cristobal
2003   Jul 08   Claudette
2004   Aug 10   Charley
2005   Jul 03   Cindy
2006   Aug 01   Chris
2007   Jul 30   Chantal
2008   Jul 19   Cristobal
2009   Aug 16   Claudette
2010   Aug 03   Colin
2011   Jul 20   Cindy
2012   Jun 18   Chris
2013   Jul 07   Chantal
2014   Aug 24   Cristobal
2015   Jul 13   Claudette
2016   Jun 05   Colin
2017   Jun 20   Cindy
2018   Jul 08   Chris


For E storms (average formation date is August 21st):

Code: Select all

1989   Aug 19   Erin
1990   Aug 03   Edouard
1991   Sep 09   Erika
1992   Sep 29   Earl
1993   Aug 25   Emily
1994   Sep 22   Ernesto
1995   Jul 31   Erin
1996   Aug 22   Edouard
1997   Sep 03   Erika
1998   Aug 31   Earl
1999   Aug 24   Emily
2000   Sep 02   Ernesto
2001   Sep 02   Erin
2002   Sep 02   Edouard
2003   Aug 14   Erika
2004   Aug 14   Earl
2005   Jul 11   Emily
2006   Aug 25   Ernesto
2007   Aug 15   Erin
2008   Aug 04   Edouard
2009   Sep 01   Erika
2010   Aug 23   Earl
2011   Aug 02   Emily
2012   Aug 02   Ernesto
2013   Aug 15   Erin
2014   Sep 12   Edouard
2015   Aug 24   Erika
2016   Aug 02   Earl
2017   Jul 31   Emily
2018   Aug 15   Ernesto


See updated climatology tracks for August below, in the past 167 years, we've had 86 tropical systems in the first 10 days of August (an average of about 1 storm every 2 years). Things really ramp up as we progress into the 2nd and especially 3rd parts of August, climatology speaking:
https://i.ibb.co/ZzkHkK3/Webp-net-gifmaker-1.gif

Hm, I'm just looking at recent years mainly because of global warming trends.

I would go with a +AMO cycle (which began roughly 25-30 years ago). For a recency bias, just using the past 20 years, average formation of C storm is July 23rd and the E storm average is August 17th.

[Hammy]

For those season canceling, I think you should read back at what everyone was saying on August 19 in 2017

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118642&start=1480

To be fair there were indicators in both 2017 (which many including myself ignored) and 2018 that they would be active--both seasons having unusual MDR activity early on for example--2017 produced Bret in June and two systems in July, while 2018 produced a hurricane (as well as a near-hurricane in the GoM in May). 2019 has generated nothing of tropical origin thus far, and the two systems we had struggled intensely. Even with Kelvin wave producing three fairly strong waves, background conditions are so poor that none were able to take advantage.

And the CFS was showing an above average season the last two years--in fact so extreme in 2017 I figured it had to be wrong.

[DioBrando]

For those season canceling, I think you should read back at what everyone was saying on August 19 in 2017

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118642&start=1480

To be fair there were indicators in both 2017 (which many including myself ignored) and 2018 that they would be active--both seasons having unusual MDR activity early on for example--2017 produced Bret in June and two systems in July, while 2018 produced a hurricane (as well as a near-hurricane in the GoM in May). 2019 has generated nothing of tropical origin thus far, and the two systems we had struggled intensely. Even with Kelvin wave producing three fairly strong waves, background conditions are so poor that none were able to take advantage.

And the CFS was showing an above average season the last two years--in fact so extreme in 2017 I figured it had to be wrong.

Don't tell me you're gonna say 2013...

Edit: seems like a downcaster after reading previous posts. i'm jumping on the downcasting bandwagon too I guess

[DioBrando]

Won't it hurt to see a hurricane in 2019 like Gert in 1999, or Eddy in 1996? Danielle in 2010? I would absolutely want them right now.

[Ntxw]

Looking at just the overall background state (rising motion) across the globe this summer a few things do stand out.

First while early season indicators are often not good precursors to the peak of the season for the Atlantic we can still play an odds game. 2017 started out quite quiet but the background forcing (hindsight always 20/20) was favorable in silence. Upward motion over Africa, and the Maritime Continent/Indonesia (Nina-ish despite the early indicators were showing Nino but failed at the surface). Both of these tropical forcing regions play a vital role in providing the foundations for which then the Atlantic can take advantage of, later on in that season.

Early Summer 2017 (blue/cool colors is rising motion)


ASO 2017 then really went to town over the MC/Indonesia and we know what happened



2018 was not as strong over the MC but was pretty decent




Now in 2019 the MC/Indonesia is in reverse so you likely won't see the Nina-like forcing happen this year despite waning ENSO unless something changes there pretty quickly here in the next few weeks. However, Africa should be respected as it does play an important role. The blocks are not as stacked as 2017, and probably not even as much as 2018 but it's definitely too soon to write anything off yet.



To note: this is a very small sample size of one factor (background) and does not portray everything as a whole. If you want to mention 2013 that year had good forcing over the Maritime Continent/Nina-like but yet did not behave as such, to show how much of an outlier anomaly that was.

[Hammy]

For those season canceling, I think you should read back at what everyone was saying on August 19 in 2017

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118642&start=1480

To be fair there were indicators in both 2017 (which many including myself ignored) and 2018 that they would be active--both seasons having unusual MDR activity early on for example--2017 produced Bret in June and two systems in July, while 2018 produced a hurricane (as well as a near-hurricane in the GoM in May). 2019 has generated nothing of tropical origin thus far, and the two systems we had struggled intensely. Even with Kelvin wave producing three fairly strong waves, background conditions are so poor that none were able to take advantage.

And the CFS was showing an above average season the last two years--in fact so extreme in 2017 I figured it had to be wrong.

Don't tell me you're gonna say 2013...

Edit: seems like a downcaster after reading previous posts. i'm jumping on the downcasting bandwagon too I guess

2013 had things going on that were pretty much impossible to see in real time with the thermohaline circulation and featured winter-like cold lows getting down into the deep tropics, anomalous shear across the entire basin, and waves that were failing to even emerge from Africa (at least two instances I remember with high development where the waves simply stalled out on the coast and dissipated) and global reduction in activity--hurricanes in the EP struggling to even reach Cat 2 (they've already had a 4 this year now)

This year on the other hand is behaving very much like an weak to moderate El Nino--this year from the start has felt very 2002 to me with background conditions, a season that really didn't get going until the end of August, and if we're going to get an extreme quiet season, though not what I'd forecast at the moment, 1997 would be far more likely than 2013.

[DioBrando]

To be fair there were indicators in both 2017 (which many including myself ignored) and 2018 that they would be active--both seasons having unusual MDR activity early on for example--2017 produced Bret in June and two systems in July, while 2018 produced a hurricane (as well as a near-hurricane in the GoM in May). 2019 has generated nothing of tropical origin thus far, and the two systems we had struggled intensely. Even with Kelvin wave producing three fairly strong waves, background conditions are so poor that none were able to take advantage.

And the CFS was showing an above average season the last two years--in fact so extreme in 2017 I figured it had to be wrong.

Don't tell me you're gonna say 2013...

Edit: seems like a downcaster after reading previous posts. i'm jumping on the downcasting bandwagon too I guess

2013 had things going on that were pretty much impossible to see in real time with the thermohaline circulation and featured winter-like cold lows getting down into the deep tropics, anomalous shear across the entire basin, and waves that were failing to even emerge from Africa (at least two instances I remember with high development where the waves simply stalled out on the coast and dissipated) and global reduction in activity--hurricanes in the EP struggling to even reach Cat 2 (they've already had a 4 this year now)

This year on the other hand is behaving very much like an weak to moderate El Nino--this year from the start has felt very 2002 to me with background conditions, a season that really didn't get going until the end of August, and if we're going to get an extreme quiet season, though not what I'd forecast at the moment, 1997 would be far more likely than 2013.

which I don't see happening

[Siker]

For those season canceling, I think you should read back at what everyone was saying on August 19 in 2017

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118642&start=1480

To be fair there were indicators in both 2017 (which many including myself ignored) and 2018 that they would be active--both seasons having unusual MDR activity early on for example--2017 produced Bret in June and two systems in July, while 2018 produced a hurricane (as well as a near-hurricane in the GoM in May). 2019 has generated nothing of tropical origin thus far, and the two systems we had struggled intensely. Even with Kelvin wave producing three fairly strong waves, background conditions are so poor that none were able to take advantage.

And the CFS was showing an above average season the last two years--in fact so extreme in 2017 I figured it had to be wrong.

I did see in the 2017 thread that you were consistently mentioning the favorable conditions depicted by the CFS, but you also commented at some point in mid-late August when the CFS dropped this depiction that you had pretty much given up on notable activity. Not picking on you, just something I saw in the mass of activity’s coming vs. activity will never come posts from that thread.

[Hammy]

For those season canceling, I think you should read back at what everyone was saying on August 19 in 2017

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118642&start=1480

To be fair there were indicators in both 2017 (which many including myself ignored) and 2018 that they would be active--both seasons having unusual MDR activity early on for example--2017 produced Bret in June and two systems in July, while 2018 produced a hurricane (as well as a near-hurricane in the GoM in May). 2019 has generated nothing of tropical origin thus far, and the two systems we had struggled intensely. Even with Kelvin wave producing three fairly strong waves, background conditions are so poor that none were able to take advantage.

And the CFS was showing an above average season the last two years--in fact so extreme in 2017 I figured it had to be wrong.

I did see in the 2017 thread that you were consistently mentioning the favorable conditions depicted by the CFS, but you also commented at some point in mid-late August when the CFS dropped this depiction that you had pretty much given up on notable activity. Not picking on you, just something I saw in the mass of activity’s coming vs. activity will never come posts from that thread.

Usually for me at least (last year being a glaring exception) if things don't start going by about the 20th or so--in part because the late 90s being when I became really interested, and had several such years--it starts feeling like the season might not be following what the early indicators would lead one to expect, and 2017's case the models simply weren't picking anything up at that point, not even the usual phantom storms you'd start seeing.

This year however has consistently felt like the signs were pointing to a less active season, at least less active than many of the forecasts, and we're getting back into that state of the models developing waves because the conditions at that moment look favorable, and not taking into account that those conditions are temporary (the Kelvan wave for instance). It's really had a 2002-feel in general with the overall pattern.

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at everything it looks like around the 20th the lid may come off when the convectively suppressed kelvin wave moves on but until then enjoy the quiet

[NDG]

Things as we know are dry over the middle of the Atlantic but this might be also a reason why the majority of the EPAC systems have struggled (compared to the last few years) across the EPAC.
Something has to give and like some have said this month is the month to watch for trends as we head into the peak of the season.