Surface Trough/Possible LOW Development across the Southeastern GOM

[StormTracker]

I noticed that last night. It appeared to have a nice little rotation going...ST

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Florida-13-12-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Aric Dunn]

It is trying..

[northjaxpro]

It definitely is trying to wrap convection near its weak LLC. The LLC is just to the southeast of the shear axis. It is very close.

[boca]

Is the center about 100 miles north of due west of key west?

[northjaxpro]

Is the center about 100 miles north of due west of key west?

Yes, that is about right.

[Aric Dunn]

Is the center about 100 miles north of due west of key west?

definitely looks like there is something slowly organizing in there at the moment.

[boca]

The sun is shining bright in Boca Raton but that should change since that mass is drifting this way

[northjaxpro]

Yes, that is it Aric.

Also, 1013 mb Low Pressure being analyzed by WPC/NHC/Surface analysis in that area Aric pointed out about 100 miles west/northwest of Key West.

[ronjon]

It definitely is trying to wrap convection near its weak LLC. The LLC is just to the southeast of the shear axis. It is very close.

GFS, ICON, and some of the mesoscale models have been latching on to a weak low forming in the SE GOM and generally slowing drifting N-NE to near Tampa Bay over the next day or so. None of them get very strong, probably due to pretty strong shear from the mid-to-upper low over the north-central GOM.

[northjaxpro]

It definitely is trying to wrap convection near its weak LLC. The LLC is just to the southeast of the shear axis. It is very close.

GFS, ICON, and some of the mesoscale models have been latching on to a weak low forming in the SE GOM and generally slowing drifting N-NE to near Tampa Bay over the next day or so. None of them get very strong, probably due to pretty strong shear from the mid-to-upper low over the north-central GOM.

Yes, I have been following this closely and discussed this very thing on the forums the past few days. I created this thread very early this morning when I saw this taking shape.

[Aric Dunn]

It definitely is trying to wrap convection near its weak LLC. The LLC is just to the southeast of the shear axis. It is very close.

GFS, ICON, and some of the mesoscale models have been latching on to a weak low forming in the SE GOM and generally slowing drifting N-NE to near Tampa Bay over the next day or so. None of them get very strong, probably due to pretty strong shear from the mid-to-upper low over the north-central GOM.

Yes, I have been following this closely and discussed this very thing on the forums the past few days. I created this thread very early this morning when I saw this taking shape.

It must maintain convection though. that is all i am watching right now.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, that is the key all the time. DMAX will be interesting with this tonight, if it can stay away from the shear axis. It is so close to the shear axis. I just wonder how much longer it can hold off from that.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah, that is the key all the time. DMAX will be interesting with this tonight, if it can stay away from the shear axis. It is so close to the shear axis. I just wonder how much longer it can hold off from that.

GFS shifts the shear axis north to just north of tampa over the next 24 hours. so it might have a little room.

[boca]

Cloud tops are warming

[ronjon]

Pretty impressive for a weak low.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions/florida-radar-and-satellite-loop

[wxman57]

I see only a weak trof axis. Not organizing. Development chances near zero.

[DioBrando]

^ near 0% chances about 99.9999999% of the time ^

[Nimbus]

If the surface pressure drops below 29.85 maybe, I think 29.78 is where things start to get interesting.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EDT

[northjaxpro]

It looks like the LLC is picking up in forward speed moving due north.

[floridasun78]

not thing form in area north of keywest the low of 95l is now east of jacksonville so only going be rainy weather will come out this mess