ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

[GCANE]

LL Vort riding pretty high but still very broad.
IMHO will take awhile to consolidate.
So I don't see any big recurve to the pole anytime soon.
Clear sailing ahead in terms of any PV Streamers.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/5059/vWUW8M.gif

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/6506/wIjeYM.gif

If the southern portion consolidates we will have a Caribbean runner... so this is key for future track.

Absolutely, my gut is telling me it will.

[GCANE]

Latest multi-sat analysis.
I hear the duck quaking.
Need a good SCAT and it'll be our next TD.

[Aric Dunn]

LL Vort riding pretty high but still very broad.
IMHO will take awhile to consolidate.
So I don't see any big recurve to the pole anytime soon.
Clear sailing ahead in terms of any PV Streamers.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/5059/vWUW8M.gif

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/6506/wIjeYM.gif

If the southern portion consolidates we will have a Caribbean runner... so this is key for future track.

Absolutely, my gut is telling me it will.

Yeah middle to south.. and then it has to be at least a minimal TS to survive the Caribbean graveyard low level flow increase. Otherwise conditions in carrib should be at least marginal.

[GCANE]

If the southern portion consolidates we will have a Caribbean runner... so this is key for future track.

Absolutely, my gut is telling me it will.

Yeah middle to south.. and then it has to be at least a minimal TS to survive the Caribbean graveyard low level flow increase. Otherwise conditions in carrib should be at least marginal.

Could explode in the West Carib given the TUTT, everyone talking about, anchored around the Bahamas.
Would create an ideal outflow channel.

[GCANE]

Latest CoC 12N 49.5W.
Strong steering due west.
Looks like the ridge will follow it west.
Very likely into the Carib.
Even if convection gets killed in the graveyard, the very-large LL-Vort momentum this has will very likely reignite it in the west Carib.
This is starting to look pretty concerning.

[GCANE]

This puppy wants to jump out of its cage.
Good vortical hot tower zipping east to west.

[GCANE]

Once the CCKW Inhibition passed over this yesterday and moved east, UL Divergence took a really big uptick.
Impressive to say the least.
UL WV even showing a nice outflow.

[GCANE]

Biggest problem is middle-level dry air to its NW.
Looks like leading-edge convection is going to plow it out of the way.
Classic protected pouch paradigm.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1157619238477189121

[GCANE]

Big difference between GFS and Euro how they initialize the mid-Atlantic ridge.
GFS wants to keep the western end while Euro wants to erode it.
Outcome will determine if it's a Carib Runner or a Shredded Bahamian.

[Visioen]

I think no matter where it goes, it will get shredded by shear...

[hohnywx]

LOL, year after year, its a recurring theme.
Tropical waves rarely develop before they hit 50W, especially early in the season.
Once they pass the "fifty-yard line" its game on.

And it’s the same people who never learn. Anyway, 96L looking pretty good this morning. I imagine NHC will be raising its percentages if this continues during the day today.

[cycloneye]

Location: 13.1°N 49.2°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 100 NM

[floridasun78]

by end today we know if this playmaker. i not sure if their low with this wave it hard tooo tell

[NDG]

Convection this morning is due to nothing more than UL divergence and some low level convergence because it is attached to the ITCZ as seen clearly on satellite.
Wake me up in the second half of August

[floridasun78]

i wont be supprise if by tonight we dont have 96l

[GCANE]

Mid-level vort may break off ahead of the Low-level vort.
This may be why the discrepency between the Euro and GFS

[AxaltaRacing24]

Convection this morning is due to nothing more than UL divergence and some low level convergence because it is attached to the ITCZ as seen clearly on satellite.
Wake me up in the second half of August

it seems that the second half of august is when the season really starts anyways each year. first half is a slightly more favorable july.

[GCANE]

Mid-level vort coming in loud and clear at 12N 51W

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1157677742906908672