WPAC: LEKIMA - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

It's worth noting that the ECMWF is on and off again showing stronger solutions now. In fact, today's 12Z run is even deeper than the corresponding GFS run. I'm not sure I'm ready to buy that quite yet since it happens at the latitude of Okinawa, where guidance over deepens at times, but I am warming up to the idea. Francisco has done quite a bit of work filling the TUTT, which greatly reduces one negative factor I mentioned earlier. Regardless, odds are very good that we're going to see our first full-fledged typhoon since Wutip in February from 94W.

[Nancy Smar]

10W TEN 190804 0000 16.1N 131.6E WPAC 25 998

[dexterlabio]

Things got a bit complicated now with another possible storm forming south of Francisco and east of this system... Plus some models are seeing possible formation in the SCS. Interesting to see how all of these systems will interact with each other in the coming days.

[1900hurricane]

Renumber might be a little generous now. Circulation looks closedish on RGB, but I don't know if I'd be willing to classify something that broad and elongated.



EDIT: Metop-C pass looks a little better than I was expecting. Still a little elongated, but good enough for classification. Could even make an argument for a 35 kt tropical storm.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 659 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS AN AREA EMBEDDED IN A BROAD CIRCULATION WHERE
SUSTAINED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE CAUSING CONSOLIDATION. THERE IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, PLACED NEAR THE
APPARENT CONSOLIDATION IN THE MSI IMAGERY AND CONSISTENT WITH A
032009 AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS
IS BASED ON RJTD AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5
(25 KTS) BUT THERE HAS BEEN A LARGE AREA OF APPROXIMATELY 30 KT
WESTERLY WINDS OVER 100 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT POSITION. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM
(29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OFFSETTING MODERATE (10-20
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). NOTABLY, THERE IS AN ADJACENT AREA OF
FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR JUST NORTH OF THE CURRENT POSITION AND IN THE
PATH OF THE SYSTEM. TD 10W IS DRIFTING GENERALLY POLEWARD UNDER WEAK
STEERING INFLUENCE FROM A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTH TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY. TD 10W IS STILL CONSOLIDATING SO INITIAL UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH. INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED TO REACH 35 KTS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS,
NECESSITATING A WARNING.
B. THROUGH TAU 48, TD 10W IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY POLEWARD BY
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE STR. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72, THE STR
EXTENSION TO THE NORTH WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE AND THE TRACK SHOULD SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTWARD. AS TD 10W
MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE VWS REGION, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY, REACHING 55 KTS BY TAU 72. MOST OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
IS IN THE EARLY TAUS AS THE MODEL TRACKERS ARE LIKELY HAVING
DIFFICULTY IDENTIFYING THE LLCC IN THE BROADER CIRCULATION. BY TAU
36, NAVGEM STARTS TO APPEAR AS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER RELATIVE TO THE
OTHER MEMBERS. OVERALL, THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE FORECAST, LARGELY OWING TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INITIAL POSITION AND SUBSEQUENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL TRACK
GUIDANCE.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 10W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND TO
STEADILY INCREASE INTENSITY TO 70 KTS BY TAU 120. FOR THE MOST PART,
ALL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIMILAR TREND TO THE FORECAST
INTENSITY; HOWEVER, THE ENVELOPE OF POSSIBILITIES IS QUITE LARGE (50-
85 KTS) BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
HEDGED JUST ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ONLY DUE TO THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARING TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. TRACK GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS VERY LOW
PRIMARILY DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS
IS BASED ON RJTD AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5
(25 KTS) BUT THERE HAS BEEN A LARGE AREA OF APPROXIMATELY 30 KT
WESTERLY WINDS OVER 100 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT POSITION.

Translation: we're going 25 kt even though reliable data has 30-35 kt. Ugh...

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1157849280821911552

[euro6208]

12Z EURO is the strongest run so far. Bottoms *Lekima* down to 938 mb with a possible landfall for Okinawa. Huge blow for the Southern Islands.

[euro6208]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 131.9E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 04.08.2019 17.0N 131.9E MODERATE

12UTC 04.08.2019 18.5N 131.8E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.08.2019 18.8N 131.2E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.08.2019 18.5N 130.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.08.2019 18.4N 129.8E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.08.2019 19.1N 129.3E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.08.2019 18.9N 127.9E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.08.2019 20.1N 127.2E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.08.2019 21.0N 126.1E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 08.08.2019 23.2N 126.1E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.08.2019 25.0N 124.9E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 09.08.2019 26.4N 123.3E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 10.08.2019 27.7N 122.8E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[Nancy Smar]

currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 2
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 2
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber: 1
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 1.5
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened: 1
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 2
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber: 2
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 2
finalTNumberType: 1

It could be TS Lekima later.

[doomhaMwx]

TS 1909 (Lekima)
Issued at 07:20 UTC, 4 August 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 4 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°25' (17.4°)
E131°55' (131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 650 km (350 NM)
N 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 5 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°35' (18.6°)
E131°35' (131.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 6 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°30' (19.5°)
E131°05' (131.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 220 km (120 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 7 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°00' (21.0°)
E128°40' (128.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 330 km (180 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 480 km (260 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 8 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N23°20' (23.3°)
E126°10' (126.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 480 km (260 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 700 km (375 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 9 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°10' (26.2°)
E124°25' (124.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 650 km (350 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 850 km (450 NM)

[Nancy Smar]

WTPQ52 RJTD 040600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909) UPGRADED FROM TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 040600UTC 17.4N 131.9E FAIR

MOVE N 08KT

PRES 996HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT

30KT 350NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH

FORECAST

24HF 050600UTC 18.6N 131.6E 70NM 70%

MOVE N SLOWLY

PRES 990HPA

MXWD 045KT

GUST 065KT

48HF 060600UTC 19.5N 131.1E 120NM 70%

MOVE NNW SLOWLY

PRES 975HPA

MXWD 060KT

GUST 085KT

72HF 070600UTC 21.0N 128.7E 180NM 70%

MOVE WNW 07KT

PRES 965HPA

MXWD 070KT

GUST 100KT

96HF 080600UTC 23.3N 126.2E 260NM 70%

MOVE NW 08KT

PRES 950HPA

MXWD 080KT

GUST 115KT

120HF 090600UTC 26.2N 124.4E 350NM 70%

MOVE NNW 08KT

PRES 950HPA

MXWD 080KT

GUST 115KT =

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 631 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) REVEALS AN AREA EMBEDDED IN A BROAD CIRCULATION WHERE SUSTAINED
CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE APPEARS TO BE CAUSING
CONSOLIDATION. THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION,
PLACED NEAR THE APPARENT CONSOLIDATION IN THE MSI IMAGERY AND
CONSISTENT WITH A 040701Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A
BROAD SWATH OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS
BASED ON RJTD AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25
KTS) BUT THERE HAS BEEN A LARGE AREA OF APPROXIMATELY 30 KT WESTERLY
WINDS OVER 100 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT POSITION WHICH IS
APPARENT ON A 070108Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM
(29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TD 10W IS DRIFTING GENERALLY POLEWARD UNDER WEAK
STEERING INFLUENCE FROM A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 48, TD 10W IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY POLEWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE STR. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72, THE
STR EXTENSION TO THE NORTH WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE AND THE TRACK SHOULD SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTWARD. TD 10W IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY, REACHING 55 KTS BY TAU 72. MOST OF
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST IS IN THE EARLY TAUS AS THE MODEL TRACKERS ARE LIKELY HAVING
DIFFICULTY IDENTIFYING THE LLCC IN THE BROADER CIRCULATION. AFTER TAU
12, EGRR IS THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER AND MAINTAINS A TRACK 150 NM WEST OF
CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST, LARGELY OWING TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AND SUBSEQUENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 10W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND TO
STEADILY INCREASE INTENSITY TO 80 KTS BY TAU 120. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH A SPLIT OCCURRING
BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED IN
LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AS THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. TRACK GUIDANCE,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR, IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS VERY LOW PRIMARILY DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY
IN THE INITIAL POSITION.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

WTPQ32 RJTD 040600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE

PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 16.5N, 131.9E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS (LEKIMA) STATUS. TS LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 17.4N, 131.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.

3.TRACK FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA. =

[1900hurricane]

Looks like a pretty typical early stage monsoon trough tropical storm on microwave imagery.

[1900hurricane]

WDPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) REVEALS AN AREA EMBEDDED IN A BROAD CIRCULATION WHERE
SUSTAINED CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE APPEARS TO BE CAUSING
CONSOLIDATION. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION,
PLACED WITHIN THE APPARENT SHALLOW BANDING SEEN IN A 041004Z SSMIS
91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS BASED ON
MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5-2.0 (25-
35 KTS). A 041251Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS THE POSITION AND
INTENSITY ESTIMATE, SHOWING A CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF
APPROXIMATELY 35-45 KT WESTERLY WINDS OVER 100 NM TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CURRENT POSITION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AND LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TD 10W IS
DRIFTING GENERALLY POLEWARD UNDER WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE FROM A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST OF TD 10W.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 48, TD 10W IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY POLEWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE STR. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72, THE
STR EXTENSION TO THE NORTH WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE AND THE TRACK SHOULD SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTWARD. TD 10W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY, REACHING 55 KTS BY TAU 72. MOST OF
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST IS IN THE EARLY TAUS AS THE MODEL TRACKERS ARE LIKELY
HAVING DIFFICULTY IDENTIFYING THE LLCC IN THE BROADER CIRCULATION.
OVERALL, THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WITH A 350 NM SPREAD AT TAU 72, LARGELY OWING TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND SUBSEQUENT UNCERTAINTY IN
THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 10W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND TO
INCREASE STEADILY INTENSITY TO 90 KTS BY TAU 120. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT DUE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIMITED DEVIATION THROUGH TAU 120; HOWEVER, THE
INTENSITY UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO THE HIGH TRACK
UNCERTAINTY. TRACK GUIDANCE, IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF
NEARLY 1000NM BETWEEN GFS AND NAVGEM AT TAU 120, LIKELY IN PART TO
THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
POSITION.//
NNNN

Stop that JTWC. The strongest winds are clearly associated with the circulation, not the monsoon trough. This is probably a 45 kt tropical storm. The circulation has tightened up considerably on ASCAT imagery from 12 hours ago.

[mrbagyo]

JMA is now at 40knots while JTWC is still stuck at 30 knts. What's goin on.

TS 1909 (Lekima)
Issued at 13:10 UTC, 4 August 2019
<Analysis at 12 UTC, 4 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°30' (17.5°)
E130°50' (130.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 650 km (350 NM)
N 330 km (180 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 5 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°30' (18.5°)
E130°50' (130.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 6 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°35' (19.6°)
E130°20' (130.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 220 km (120 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 7 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°10' (21.2°)
E128°00' (128.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 330 km (180 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 430 km (230 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 8 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N23°50' (23.8°)
E125°25' (125.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 480 km (260 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 600 km (325 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 9 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°05' (26.1°)
E123°00' (123.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 650 km (350 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 800 km (425 NM)

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1158041650633093120

[1900hurricane]

JMA is now at 40knots while JTWC is still stuck at 30 knts. What's goin on.

[removed JMA advisory]

JTWC is ignoring some pretty clear ASCAT data near the circulation center. This is not >100 nm out like the Prognostic Reasoning states. Doesn't make much sense to me.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1158053922675789824