Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[colbroe]

The tropical wave at 9N 40W with a 1013 low is the next area of intrest that we in the Caribbean islands need to keep an eye on

[Hurricaneman]

Not going to do anything, has the same conditions as 96L

[floridasun78]

no models show any thing coming out from line of storms maybe good rain storm when get their to islands right now no support by models

[Aric Dunn]

I guess no one notices the system se of barbados. It has a short window.. but it is really trying right now..

Sure is a whole lot of increasing vorticity..

Shear will be low for abour 48 hours..


nice moisture envelope as well

[tropicwatch]

I guess no one notices the system se of barbados. It has a short window.. but it is really trying right now..

Sure is a whole lot of increasing vorticity..

Shear will be low for abour 48 hours..


nice moisture envelope as well

You talking about the one near 11N and 58W with building convection, 850mb vorticity and a low shear environment?

[Aric Dunn]

I guess no one notices the system se of barbados. It has a short window.. but it is really trying right now..

Sure is a whole lot of increasing vorticity..

Shear will be low for abour 48 hours..




nice moisture envelope as well

You talking about the one near 11N and 58W with building convection, 850mb vorticity and a low shear environment?

Yep thats the one lol...

[Emmett_Brown]

The global models have been stingy with development this year. (And so far they have been pretty much spot on). So, maybe we are witnessing how their performance has improved, and they will be less apt to produce false positives for development going forward. Or, maybe they are now overly bearish on development, and we will get some surprises. Only time will tell!

[tropicwatch]

With it being out of the SAL, having moderate 850mb vorticity, in a low wind shear environment and building convection. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a lemon tonight or tomorrow morning.

[floridasun78]

With it being out of the SAL, having moderate 850mb vorticity, in a low wind shear environment and building convection. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a lemon tonight or tomorrow morning.
http://tropicwatch.info/antilles080720192020z.png

going into Caribbean that got shear and dry air wanting for it look happen 96l

[Aric Dunn]

With it being out of the SAL, having moderate 850mb vorticity, in a low wind shear environment and building convection. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a lemon tonight or tomorrow morning.
http://tropicwatch.info/antilles080720192020z.png

going into Caribbean that got shear and dry air wanting for it look happen 96l

dry air no...

[wxman57]

Dry air in the low levels in the east Caribbean, stronger shear mid and west Caribbean. There is a reason not a single model develops this disturbance, and why it isn't being mentioned by the NHC. Look elsewhere for the next storm. With any luck, we'll make it all the way through August without a named storm.

[Aric Dunn]

plenty of moisture......

agreed it does not have much time.. still worth watching..




and shear is low for the next 36 hours..

[floridasun78]

8pm outlook Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

[Aric Dunn]

Barbados has switched to a west wind.. radar showing some possible south moving cells and slow moving cells south side..

also a few MB lower pressure than surrounding obs..

[Aric Dunn]

Something passed pretty much right over Barbados. Watching the winds go from east to north to nw then wnw and now out of the south. Radar showing some rotation to the cells. A lot of moisture, very low shear for the next 24 hours. Good divergence..

Eventually shear increases.

[Aric Dunn]

Appears there is an actual weak circ.. passed right over the radar station. Interesting.

[Nimbus]

Big upper level high centered over the panhandle pulling the 96L energy into Central America.
Did the central pressure in this area get below 1010?
High could roll east by the time this gets west of Jamaica but shear forecast is keeping the models conservative.

[Aric Dunn]

Big upper level high centered over the panhandle pulling the 96L energy into Central America.
Did the central pressure in this area get below 1010?
High could roll east by the time this gets west of Jamaica but shear forecast is keeping the models conservative.

Currently a perfect upper high placement over this for another 12 to 24 hours.

[wxman57]

No, there is no low-level circulation. It went right over numerous obs and there was nothing. It's just a tropical wave that is starting to weaken as it moves into a less hospitable environment. Chance of development still near zero. Pressures are also pretty high in the region (1014-1016mb). I keep saying, look elsewhere for the next storm.

[StormLogic]

storms poppin off ne quad