#9 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:21 am
Remains MEDIUM.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.7N 117.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 117.5E, APPROXIMATELY
225 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070220Z 89GHZ MHS METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH WEAK
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER 60NM TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 070221Z METOP-B 25KM
RESOLUTION ASCAT DIRECT PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LLC WITH 10-15 KNOT
WIND BARBS. THERE IS AN AREA OF 25-30 KNOT WIND BARBS 90 NM TO THE
SOUTHWEST UNDER THE CONVECTION AND NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 96W IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 96W MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BEING
ABSORBED BY TY 10W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacifichttps://www.weather.gov/gum/