2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1158890483524997122

[gatorcane]

You can see why the long-range models are dead for any development on the Atlantic side. But if this forecast is correct, things should get a boost in a couple of weeks and especially as we head into September:

[gatorcane]

Another thing I am watching closely is the NAO. Notice how it dipped into the negative to almost -2 the past 2-3 weeks. A dip like that for that long last took place in early May so quite a while ago. Models are expecting it to rebound if not head into positive territory as we head into late August. It is possible that as we head into the peak of the season that NAO may not be deep into the negative territory (-2) for a long period which may end up allowing for the “semi-permanent” east coast trough that is in place now to turn any systems out to sea to not be around (at least as long as we have seen lately):

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1159048555467816961

[Hurricaneman]

Between the 20th and 25th we may see an upturn in activity especially with the sinking air starting to retreat around the 20th and even some rising air moving into the western Atlantic around the 25th but looking past that date it could be an active last few days of the month into September and maybe October that is why the CSU forecast didn’t change also

[jconsor]

There is good reason to be skeptical of seasonal and even some sub-seasonal models showing a dry Sahel and MDR near the peak of Atlantic tropical season:

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1159379008607440896

[Hammy]

Would that explain why the Euro seems to always predict above normal pressure in the Atlantic during late summer/early fall pretty much year after year regardless of what actually happens?

[jconsor]

:uarrow: Would that explain why the Euro seems to always predict above normal pressure in the Atlantic during late summer/early fall pretty much year after year regardless of what actually happens?

Yes, I believe the ECMWF seasonal model's Atlantic SST bias, along with a pronounced bias toward overdeveloping El Ninos, would explain the its above normal pressure bias in the tropical Atlantic.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1159401591214170118

[SFLcane]

Trof pattern going away soon lets hope nothing is developing in the tropics.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1159462264426172418

[CyclonicFury]

The global models do show several waves exiting Africa for the next 10-14 days, but all of them are very amplified, exit at a high latitude and do not develop. Once the WAM begins to shift south a bit in late August and early September, we should start seeing some of these waves develop as SAL should lessen and SSTs should be warm enough. September looks like it should be much more favorable than August.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1159496896253169664

[SconnieCane]

As a chaser of land-based severe convective storms, I find August is often to the hurricane season what April is to the tornado season. Being just one month before the peak, it feels like it should be a lot more active than it usually is. Instead it's often more like the "switch flip" as it is frequently described when the peak month rolls around.

[MetroMike]

As a chaser of land-based severe convective storms, I find August is often to the hurricane season what April is to the tornado season. Being just one month before the peak, it feels like it should be a lot more active than it usually is. Instead it's often more like the "switch flip" as it is frequently described when the peak month rolls around.

Maybe with the August drought from any TC's so far, the season could shift to more activity than normal into October.
Things have a way of evening out in the end.

[Hurricaneman]

Most years are quiet around this time and this year is no different as there is a lot of sinking air in the basin but the last 10 days of the month should change to a more rising air regime which will cause tropical cyclones to develop right on schedule but the experts seem to think that maybe an extremely active September and October

[Hammy]

Most years are quiet around this time and this year is no different as there is a lot of sinking air in the basin but the last 10 days of the month should change to a more rising air regime which will cause tropical cyclones to develop right on schedule but the experts seem to think that maybe an extremely active September and October

I don't think the switch is going to flip until the end of the month similar to last year. What's a bit alarming, for me at least, is that there's a very good chance to make it all the way through August, for the second year in a row at that, with only a few weak, short-lived mid-latitude systems so at this point it gets me wondering if there's something off with the entire climate the last few years, like not 2013-level but beyond the usual indicators we look at.

[NotSparta]

Most years are quiet around this time and this year is no different as there is a lot of sinking air in the basin but the last 10 days of the month should change to a more rising air regime which will cause tropical cyclones to develop right on schedule but the experts seem to think that maybe an extremely active September and October

I don't think the switch is going to flip until the end of the month similar to last year. What's a bit alarming, for me at least, is that there's a very good chance to make it all the way through August, for the second year in a row at that, with only a few weak, short-lived mid-latitude systems so at this point it gets me wondering if there's something off with the entire climate the last few years, like not 2013-level but beyond the usual indicators we look at.

Well, 2018 was still above average. It just seems to be a shift towards more activity later in the season

[tolakram]

Does 2 years make a trend? Why is it alarming? What's the difference between no storms in August and 3 very weak depressions?

[Hurricaneman]

Does 2 years make a trend? Why is it alarming? What's the difference between no storms in August and 3 very weak depressions?

We’ve had years where things didn’t get going until late August early September like 1998, 1999 2002 2018. So in short some people have no patience and think August 1st is when things should get going when its usually the last 10 days of the month

[AxaltaRacing24]

Does 2 years make a trend? Why is it alarming? What's the difference between no storms in August and 3 very weak depressions?

We’ve had years where things didn’t get going until late August early September like 1998, 1999 2002 2018. So in short some people have no patience and think August 1st is when things should get going when its usually the last 10 days of the month

people forget that the first half of august is just july 2.0. this is not a magic switch flip that starts when the month starts. it's gradual and takes until the second half of the month to transition into peak season.