2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[Monsoonjr99]

Doesn't the timing of the peak tend to be a little later during +AMO than during -AMO? Perhaps we should not be so surprised if things don't pick up until late and this is another backloaded season.

[wxman57]

We already had 4 named storms last year by the 8th of August, and another formed the 15th. This is much slower than 2018. Andrea barely counts as a storm. Normally, by this time in August, the tropics are showing strong signs of activity. That's not the case this August.

[TheStormExpert]

We already had 4 named storms last year by the 8th of August, and another formed the 15th. This is much slower than 2018. Andrea barely counts as a storm. Normally, by this time in August, the tropics are showing strong signs of activity. That's not the case this August.

Probably be lucky if we see 3-4 storms in September at this rate.

Those seasonal forecasts are possibly in jeopardy of busting.

[Hurricaneman]

We already had 4 named storms last year by the 8th of August, and another formed the 15th. This is much slower than 2018. Andrea barely counts as a storm. Normally, by this time in August, the tropics are showing strong signs of activity. That's not the case this August.

The closest match seems to be 2002 as there wasn’t any signs of life in the Atlantic until the last few days of August going into September but I see a more active October than 2002

[SFLcane]

We already had 4 named storms last year by the 8th of August, and another formed the 15th. This is much slower than 2018. Andrea barely counts as a storm. Normally, by this time in August, the tropics are showing strong signs of activity. That's not the case this August.

Wait... really? Ok there have been plenty of seasons with crapola storms to nothing till mid August and have produced substancial ace. Once again there is no barring to what typically takes place in June and July which In any normal season is nada 0 to what occurs from mid aug to mid oct. There is still 90% of season to come folks be ready

[NotSparta]

We already had 4 named storms last year by the 8th of August, and another formed the 15th. This is much slower than 2018. Andrea barely counts as a storm. Normally, by this time in August, the tropics are showing strong signs of activity. That's not the case this August.

The closest match seems to be 2002 as there wasn’t any signs of life in the Atlantic until the last few days of August going into September but I see a more active October than 2002

Yeah 2002 was shut off at the end due to El Niño, that doesn't appear to be the case in 2019 w/ the end of El Niño

[toad strangler]

We already had 4 named storms last year by the 8th of August, and another formed the 15th. This is much slower than 2018. Andrea barely counts as a storm. Normally, by this time in August, the tropics are showing strong signs of activity. That's not the case this August.

Probably be lucky if we see 3-4 storms in September at this rate.

Those seasonal forecasts are possibly in jeopardy of busting.

[NotSparta]

Let's pack it up everyone, season's over

[AutoPenalti]

We already had 4 named storms last year by the 8th of August, and another formed the 15th. This is much slower than 2018. Andrea barely counts as a storm. Normally, by this time in August, the tropics are showing strong signs of activity. That's not the case this August.

Probably be lucky if we see 3-4 storms in September at this rate.



Those seasonal forecasts are possibly in jeopardy of busting.

My goodness how many times have you said that already? We are not even in mid-August yet. An active season doesn’t necessarily mean quantity, quality is also a major player.

[CyclonicFury]

We already had 4 named storms last year by the 8th of August, and another formed the 15th. This is much slower than 2018. Andrea barely counts as a storm. Normally, by this time in August, the tropics are showing strong signs of activity. That's not the case this August.

Probably be lucky if we see 3-4 storms in September at this rate.

Those seasonal forecasts are possibly in jeopardy of busting.

A quiet August doesn't necessarily mean September will be quiet too. Last year only had two named storms in August but seven in September. 2001 had no hurricanes in August but four in September.

I still strongly believe the Atlantic has at LEAST one named storm form this month. I'm going with climatology over models, and this is not a Super El Niño year like 1997. It's only August 8, not August 28.

[TheStormExpert]

We already had 4 named storms last year by the 8th of August, and another formed the 15th. This is much slower than 2018. Andrea barely counts as a storm. Normally, by this time in August, the tropics are showing strong signs of activity. That's not the case this August.

Probably be lucky if we see 3-4 storms in September at this rate.

Those seasonal forecasts are possibly in jeopardy of busting.

A quiet August doesn't necessarily mean September will be quiet too. Last year only had two named storms in August but seven in September. 2001 had no hurricanes in August but four in September.

I still strongly believe the Atlantic has at LEAST one named storm form this month. I'm going with climatology over models, and this is not a Super El Niño year like 1997. It's only August 8, not August 28.

When the pro-mets on here aren’t bullish at all, it’s hard to ignore.

[NotSparta]

Probably be lucky if we see 3-4 storms in September at this rate.

Those seasonal forecasts are possibly in jeopardy of busting.

A quiet August doesn't necessarily mean September will be quiet too. Last year only had two named storms in August but seven in September. 2001 had no hurricanes in August but four in September.

I still strongly believe the Atlantic has at LEAST one named storm form this month. I'm going with climatology over models, and this is not a Super El Niño year like 1997. It's only August 8, not August 28.

When the pro-mets on here aren’t bullish at all, it’s hard to ignore.

At the same time, 3 major forecasting agencies have upped their numbers recently, that's hard to ignore as well

[gatorcane]

For us in South Florida the month with the most TC landfalls is October so a long way away from now. September is the month with the most hits for major hurricanes. August comes in third for TC hits. Without El Niño around I will be watching the Caribbean very closely especially October and even later into September. Most of our hits are from the south not the east.

[Kazmit]

Let's pack it up everyone, season's over

Can't be over if it didn't really start in the first place.

[CyclonicFury]

Eric Blake says to be careful about climate model rainfall forecasts for hurricane activity.
 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1159536965848616960

[toad strangler]

For us in South Florida the month with the most TC landfalls is October so a long way away from now. September is the month with the most hits for major hurricanes. August comes in third for TC hits. Without El Niño around I will be watching the Caribbean very closely especially October and even later into September. Most of our hits are from the south not the east.

Always enjoy your input gator. Not to get too off the rail but I’d have to look at this closer. One of the most historic lanes for whopper land falls is from the east into S FL or through the Straits from the E.

[USTropics]

Just want to point out that early season activity (MJJ) has next to 0 correlation for activity in ASO. I could cherry pick seasons that had limited activity in MJJ and went on to have an active ASO, and vice versa. Other then a benchmark for how the season has progressed through August 8th compared to past seasons, I certainly wouldn't use it a precursor for the remainder of the season. Instead, focus on oceanic and atmospheric patterns (as the NHC did in their August update).

Src: Climatology

[CyclonicFury]

Just want to point out that early season activity (MJJ) has next to 0 correlation for activity in ASO. I could cherry pick seasons that had limited activity in MJJ and went on to have an active ASO, and vice versa. Other then a benchmark for how the season has progressed through August 8th compared to past seasons, I certainly wouldn't use it a precursor for the remainder of the season. Instead, focus on oceanic and atmospheric patterns (as the NHC did in their August update).

Src: Climatology

Agree 100%. There have been a lot of seasons with very little ACE prior to August 20, but ended up above normal. Dissipating Niño seasons like 2019 often take longer to get going, too.

[TheStormExpert]

A quiet August doesn't necessarily mean September will be quiet too. Last year only had two named storms in August but seven in September. 2001 had no hurricanes in August but four in September.

I still strongly believe the Atlantic has at LEAST one named storm form this month. I'm going with climatology over models, and this is not a Super El Niño year like 1997. It's only August 8, not August 28.

When the pro-mets on here aren’t bullish at all, it’s hard to ignore.

At the same time, 3 major forecasting agencies have upped their numbers recently, that's hard to ignore as well

Yes, I’m having mixed signals about the future of the season. I’m also somewhat surprised at how dead it is both out there and on the models.

[NotSparta]

When the pro-mets on here aren’t bullish at all, it’s hard to ignore.

At the same time, 3 major forecasting agencies have upped their numbers recently, that's hard to ignore as well

Yes, I’m having mixed signals about the future of the season. I’m also somewhat surprised at how dead it is both out there and on the models.

Probably the result of the -NAO suppressing subtropical activity, the not very busy climo of early August, and a suppressed MJO pulse for now