2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[jfk08c]

18z GFS has a low pressure area popping out into the Southwest GOM

[Hammy]

Someone posted a few days ago that there might be a small short window near the end of the suppressive conditions before they actually move out, GFS might be starting to pick up on this.

[SFLcane]

With this kind of pattern though, yeah, anything forming in the Caribbean area tends to be suppressed into Central America

[USTropics]

Area of genesis from the past 2/3 very-long range GFS runs can be tracked from this currently tilted AEW heading WSW (expected to depart the African coast on Sunday):


I've shrewdly highlighted the wave axis below as it progresses through the Atlantic:


Climatology speaking, the WGOM/BOC is a prime spot for development in the last 10 days of August:

[Hurricaneman]

Area of genesis from the past 2/3 very-long range GFS runs can be tracked from this currently tilted AEW heading WSW (expected to depart the African coast on Sunday):
https://i.imgur.com/hdN30sR.jpg

I've shrewdly highlighted the wave axis below as it progresses through the Atlantic:
https://i.ibb.co/82HBFhB/Webp-net-gifmaker-2.gif

Climatology speaking, the WGOM/BOC is a prime spot for development in the last 10 days of August:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/aug_21_31_sm.png

The 12zEURO seems to show this as a wave going north of the Caribbean, we’ll see which one may be right or even if there’s development

[cycloneye]

18z GFS still on long range tries to do something with that wave it has been showing in some scattered runs on BOC/GOM that will emerge West Africa on Sunday.

[floridasun78]

i dont watch models run that are past 10 days or so look bad models been doing after 10 days explain are 96l and other invest

[Ubuntwo]

0z GFS has a quick TC spinup by hr 200, right off of the Florida coast

[Ubuntwo]

Hurricane! Let's see if it persists in future runs

[Ubuntwo]

The 0z legacy picks up on this too

[Hammy]

The 0z legacy picks up on this too

GFS has been showing, albeit intermittently, some sort of development for some time now from the trough set to move through in about six days. Even moreso than the August 11 wave.

[Hurricaneman]

https://i.imgur.com/AViPBGG.png
Hurricane! Let's see if it persists in future runs

Have to watch this in future runs, hurricanes that formed in this area from frontal means are

Diana 1984
Carol 1954
Bob 1991
Belle 1976

The thing that’s interesting is that this is the area that the GFS developed 3 or 4 days ago in its runs although farther NE

[Hammy]

https://i.imgur.com/AViPBGG.png
Hurricane! Let's see if it persists in future runs

Have to watch this in future runs, hurricanes that formed in this area from frontal means are

Diana 1984
Carol 1954
Bob 1991
Belle 1976

The thing that’s interesting is that this is the area that the GFS developed 3 or 4 days ago in its runs although farther NE

It's shown some development in the Gulf as well from this same trough, but it certainly seems like it's latching onto some eventual seedling.

Edit: still nothing on the Euro.

[TheStormExpert]

The 00z GFS-Legacy also has it FWIW.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the 12zGFS is popping many named systems from the front, I think it’s a weird solution

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo ... 912&fh=378

[Blinhart]

I heard that the Old Farmer's Almanac states that there is going to be a system in the GoM at the beginning of September.

[Hammy]

Euro, while not showing explicit development, is starting to trend towards having some sort of low pressure that appears at least a bit less extratropical, and further south, than the recent series of ones it has moving off the east coast prior.

[tolakram]

Very long range, and no consistency yet.

[Hurricaneman]

Very long range, and no consistency yet.

https://i.imgur.com/Z6dKx9f.png

I believe that system in the eastern GOM is the wave nearing west Africa coming offshore sunday

You’re right on inconsistency as yesterday it was headed for Texas but the GFS is sensing a change toward more favorable for the western Atlantic especially the GOM and Caribbean

[cycloneye]

Here is the animation.