2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[StruThiO]

Third week of August, no fourth week. Before you know it will be September and we will have yet to see an uptick in activity that several are hoping for.

No, because the single year in recent memory where the situation you are describing happened is 2013, which this year is not.

[Hurricaneman]

Third week of August, no fourth week. Before you know it will be September and we will have yet to see an uptick in activity that several are hoping for.

The models will probably pop something in the mid range before the August 15th model runs, but if somehow you’re right than all the weather agency’s will bust but I don’t think so as the models have yet to catch on to the CCKW and MJO in terms of system formation

[CyclonicFury]

Season cancelling because the models don't show any activity? That happens pretty much every year around this time.

[NotSparta]

Third week of August, no fourth week. Before you know it will be September and we will have yet to see an uptick in activity that several are hoping for.

it's the second week of august

[crownweather]

Season cancelling because the models don't show any activity? That happens pretty much every year around this time.

I wrote this tweet yesterday. It's an example of how quickly a hurricane season can ramp up.

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1159863660766015488

[chaser1]

I think it's reasonable to think that a Hurricane Season could very well ramp up, under La Nina conditions. People may argue about whether 2019 represented a true El Nino or not . Regardless, it's clear that a range of favorable characteristics during 1999 have yet to materialize during 2019. Also, keep in mind that even one robust Cat. 1 hurricane during this current month of August is far from what I'd call a "ramp-up". Then again, I suppose one could put it in relative terms and suggest that things are getting busy. Sure, relative no practically zero I'd guess "one hurricane" would feel like some real uptick. There will always be enough historical data to suggest the possibility of such a scenario to again play itself out. I don't believe the background state of 1999 was particularly similar to our present season. I'm beginning to think that this year's final outcome will be even less then what I was thinking prior to the start of the season.

[TheStormExpert]

And the MDR continues to be shutdown from Tropical Development.

 https://twitter.com/ReaganMatt/status/1160520181438963712

[toad strangler]

Third week of August, no fourth week. Before you know it will be September and we will have yet to see an uptick in activity that several are hoping for.

You just don’t understand how this works. Not a crime. Most of your thoughts are pure conjecture. Based off nothing meteorological. Much more can be learned by just reading.

That SAL plume next week? No surprise. Come back in 14 - 20 days.

[CyclonicFury]

There WILL be an uptick in late August/September. It's just a question of when exactly and to what degree. Even 2013 had an "uptick" - Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto and Ingrid all formed in a one month span.

Last year, after a couple hurricanes in July and some subtropical activity, the tropical Atlantic was pretty much dead through August 30, but then 9 storms spanned in a span of 40 days. In 2017, there was several weak, short-lived MDR storms before August 30, but Irma became a hurricane on August 31 - the first in the MDR in 2017. The MDR hasn't had much activity in early August in recent years.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the Euro’s depiction of the MJO is to head through the null zone into phase 1 which is quite favorable after the 20th which by contrast the GFS is moving towards phase 3 which is somewhat favorable but not the best so we’ll see

[Emmett_Brown]

Not to be an alarmist, but the long range pattern is getting a little more concerning for land areas in the W NATL basin should something develop. Here are the ingredients that could cause trouble as we get toward the peak in a few weeks:

- Stable air and marginal SSTs in the MDR preventing immediate genesis/recurvature... waves will likely get further W before developing
- Above average SST's in the Caribbean, GOM and W ATL
- Below average Caribbean shear
- Further W extension of the Bermuda High
- A return of vertical instability in W ATL basin late Aug, thru early Sept
- Nino has ended, and activity in the WPac, CPac and EPac has been near normal or a little below average ACE wise

While these conditions are not guaranteed to materialize, and if they do, storms are not guaranteed, the writing is certainly on the wall that our quiet conditions could be ending soon, and when the switch flips, whatever forms may find its way close to land. I have noticed in years past that when conditions are quiet in August, the peak in September thru October can be particularly busy. Just my personal observation.

[Hammy]

There WILL be an uptick in late August/September. It's just a question of when exactly and to what degree. Even 2013 had an "uptick" - Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto and Ingrid all formed in a one month span.

Last year, after a couple hurricanes in July and some subtropical activity, the tropical Atlantic was pretty much dead through August 30, but then 9 storms spanned in a span of 40 days. In 2017, there was several weak, short-lived MDR storms before August 30, but Irma became a hurricane on August 31 - the first in the MDR in 2017. The MDR hasn't had much activity in early August in recent years.

This point is why I've referenced the CFS often--It's been very consistent in showing little to nothing in August, but also consistent (with the exception of a few scattered low-activity runs) in showing that from about early to mid-September (it's somewhat erratic as to exactly when it'll start) the lid basically comes off and, while the MDR is largely dead still, there is quite a lot of activity both north of it (Edouard-2014 type storms) as well as high and intense activity both in the western Atlantic and Gulf, extending well into early November (end of run). There will be a lot of ground to make up but it seems primed once it starts.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1160618107196575752

[AtlanticWind]

Third week of August, no fourth week. Before you know it will be September and we will have yet to see an uptick in activity that several are hoping for.

Not posting this to be mean, but I was looking at the Irma model thread and saw your post on August 29,2017 post
179 saying that conditions were very unfavorable and we know what happened from that point on

Now I am sure most of us have posted comments and predictions on this forum that have been wrong, just
wanted to point out that the season can take off from any point now.

I can assure you living in South Florida and going thru wilma and irma that I am not "hoping"that this happens, but also as someone who
has always been interested in tropical weather I will be watching closely.

[CyclonicFury]

Third week of August, no fourth week. Before you know it will be September and we will have yet to see an uptick in activity that several are hoping for.

Not posting this to be mean, but I was looking at the Irma model thread and saw your post on August 29,2017 post
179 saying that conditions were very unfavorable and we know what happened from that point on

Now I am sure most of us have posted comments and predictions on this forum that have been wrong, just
wanted to point out that the season can take off from any point now.

I can assure you living in South Florida and going thru wilma and irma that I am not "hoping"that this happens, but also as someone who
has always been interested in tropical weather I will be watching closely.

It's almost like 2013 has given some people this "bad" feeling that every season will be extremely quiet when the Atlantic is in a lull.

[StruThiO]

It's almost like 2013 has given some people this "bad" feeling that every season will be extremely quiet when the Atlantic is in a lull.

I get that 2013 was a dud, but it still surprises me how badly that year traumatised some people..

[USTropics]

It's almost like 2013 has given some people this "bad" feeling that every season will be extremely quiet when the Atlantic is in a lull.

I get that 2013 was a dud, but it still surprises me how badly that year traumatised some people..

It was as much an anomaly as 2005, a once in a lifetime event imo. I don't think we'll ever see a year where the entire global tropics struggles to produce. As others have posted, the background state in the Atlantic is not even close to 2013 (the year of the shear); dry, stable air has been the biggest detriment this year. The JMA has been forecasting the sinking branch to significantly weaken over the Atlantic beginning in 2-3 weeks, and I think we'll see instability rise in the MDR afterwards. Also, the SST configuration (higher SSTs off the EC compared to the deep tropics) helps create a more stable atmosphere in the MDR. It'll be interesting to see if this upcoming trough that seems to park itself off the EC creates enough cloud coverage (or even a tropical/subtropical system as some of the models have been forecasting) that knocks down some of those SSTs.

[CyclonicFury]

I think the strong, poleward displaced WAM may actually be delaying the start of the CV season. With the WAM so far strong, tropical waves exit Africa at a higher latitude. They are also quite amplified, making TCG during August difficult out there. If we see anything before the last week of August, it'll likely be out of the MDR. The global models currently aren't picking up on any activity during the MDR, but I'd imagine that will change at some point in the next 1-2 weeks.

2017 was a hyperactive season, but the MDR didn't have a hurricane until the last day of August (Irma). 2018 was also an above average season, but after Beryl managed to spin up in the MDR in early July, the MDR was dead until August 31 once again. The north displaced WAM may also explain why we've seen more pre-August systems since 2017, since the monsoon trough lifts northward sooner. We did have 93L this July which had a window but was unable to develop due to SAL and mid-level air, very typical of July. 96L struggled with SAL as well as its broad nature.

Normally, the MDR is most conducive in September, when the SSTs are warm enough, SAL has retreated north, and tropical waves emerge into the Atlantic. I'd say the MDR season peaks around September 5-10. However, there have been some strong hurricanes that formed in the MDR in late September, too. Perhaps the poleward displaced WAM may even allow a MDR storm to form as late as early October, like we saw with Nadine last year.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1160649855120924672

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/CyclonicFury/status/1160651099768070144