Disturbed Weather in North-NorthWestern GOM (Is Invest 90L)

[Aric Dunn]

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1161055237156802560

watch on sim satellite.. it comes from the leading wave. gains energy as it passes through some strong divergent shear and then conditions improve.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 218&fh=198

Edited the title.

The IR shows it better

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 81218&fh=6

[Aric Dunn]

[cycloneye]

[Cpv17]

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/08/12/gfs_ir_atl_fh6-366.gif

GOM=rocket fuel. Look at that intensification over the Gulf..crazy stuff.

[SFLcane]

Gone next run

[Nimbus]

They must have fed this afternoons observations into the model initialization.
Once this area starts developing a surface pressure gradient with some vorticity it may be able to sustain till it gets to the more favorable environment south of the ridge.
Still almost 10 days out though.

[Aric Dunn]

They must have fed this afternoons observations into the model initialization.
Once this area starts developing a surface pressure gradient with some vorticity it may be able to sustain till it gets to the more favorable environment south of the ridge.
Still almost 10 days out though.

That and if it goes just a little north or south of Hispaniola. this run has a lot of the vorticity over Hispaniola.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic along 31W S of 12N, moving W
around 15 kt. This is a low amplitude wave with cyclonic turning.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

[floridasun78]

8 PM TWD:

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic along 31W S of 12N, moving W
around 15 kt. This is a low amplitude wave with cyclonic turning.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

i see one sw of cape Verde but all dry up like other one we seen this season

[Hurricaneman]

This one seems to be doing what the waves weren’t doing before it and that’s maintain convection, we’ll see what it looks like around 40 or 50w. The 18zGFS might be catching on to future conditions and if this misses Hispaniola this could be huge trouble for even south Florida if to the north or Jamaica if to the south and that’s before any mention of farther west

[Nimbus]

8 PM TWD:

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic along 31W S of 12N, moving W
around 15 kt. This is a low amplitude wave with cyclonic turning.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

i see one sw of cape Verde but all dry up like other one we seen this season

Tonight there is some intense shower activity near the center of the "cyclonic turning"
Both IR and WV channels on weathernerds

[floridasun78]

remember that models were making other invest into strong systems but when got closer dry air in tropical kill it and SAL and shear by leewards islands but like 10days away let see how look by weekend models having issue picking up SAL and all dry air out their but heading peak part season let see

[floridasun78]

8 PM TWD:

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic along 31W S of 12N, moving W
around 15 kt. This is a low amplitude wave with cyclonic turning.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

i see one sw of cape Verde but all dry up like other one we seen this season

Tonight there is some intense shower activity near the center of the "cyclonic turning"
Both IR and WV channels on weathernerds

other invest did same their come strong that area got weak as get close to leedwards

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS (Happy Hour GFS) goes full Harvey 2.0 on this!

[Aric Dunn]

remember that models were making other invest into strong systems but when got closer dry air in tropical kill it and SAL and shear by leewards islands but like 10days away let see how look by weekend models having issue picking up SAL and all dry air out their but heading peak part season let see

This particular situation is different. As it approaches the islands the mid and upper level flow changes to the sw which not only creates a heavily sheared environment but also very divergent.

The other thing it does is push the sal back .. assuming everything at the surface is in place.... then it will move into a.moist environment with shear to enhance convection ...afterwards .. again assuming the upper lower that causes the shear lifts off to the ne... the wave will move into a good environment...

[wxman57]

18z GFS (Happy Hour GFS) goes full Harvey 2.0 on this!

Yep, that appears to be the same feature. Typically, it takes 2 weeks for a disturbance near the Cape Verde Islands to reach the NW Gulf. However, I'm not one to believe a GFS prediction of development in the 10-16 day time frame. My money would be on "nope" at this time. Let it get within 7 days or so and have all other models supporting development, then I'll bite.

[toad strangler]

remember that models were making other invest into strong systems but when got closer dry air in tropical kill it and SAL and shear by leewards islands but like 10days away let see how look by weekend models having issue picking up SAL and all dry air out their but heading peak part season let see

Love your patience and conservative nature but the weekend is a long way off and nobody around these parts is On a wait and see until then. Next suite!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

GFS long-range doomcanes is always a good sign that the Atlantic is about to come to life imo.

[cycloneye]

This wave is doing well despite the dry air to the north.It helps it staying mainly below 10N.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Will the wave develop?
A yes
B no