2019 EPAC season

[DioBrando]

I don't think 2019 would be the same as 2014-18... probably a 2000s-style season is more likely.

[Yellow Evan]

to the shock of absolutely no one, the GFS and ECMWF have dropped the 0/50.

[DioBrando]

to the shock of absolutely no one, the GFS and ECMWF have dropped the 0/50.

called it

[Yellow Evan]

An elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
nearly 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form later this week while the system moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[hurricanes1234]

Of the four seasons in which this list of names has been used thus far in the 21st century, all of them have been below-average in some way (or in the case of this year, below expectations).

[DioBrando]

wad of shear

[DioBrando]

Cat 4 Juliette for GFS, 946mb

[Astromanía]

Models are in agrement and bery bullish on this potential system, and show consistency in the past several runs


Plus GFS insist in a tropical depresion or post tropical cyclone of this system near California, now in Los Angeles area

[Yellow Evan]

Except the ECMWF hasn't showed much love as of last check. This is basically a GFS fantasy right now.

[cycloneye]

Will this be a big one as GFS is advertising?

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south or
southeast of the southeastern coast of Mexico late this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the system over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south or
southeast of the southeastern coast of Mexico late this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the system over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south or
southeast of the southeastern coast of Mexico late this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the system over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Both GFS and Euro have it strong with GFS the strongest and go to land in Mexico,GFS to Cabo San Lucas and Euro more to Sinaloa.

[Yellow Evan]

Oh wow the 12z ECMWF actually does show this. Given their performance this year don’t have much confidence though.

[cycloneye]

Oh wow the 12z ECMWF actually does show this. Given their performance this year don’t have much confidence though.

No confidence in that model or no confidence on the system developing?

[Yellow Evan]

Oh wow the 12z ECMWF actually does show this. Given their performance this year don’t have much confidence though.

No confidence in that model or no confidence on the system developing?

Lol I’m a ECMWF hack.

No confidence in the system getting as strong as advertised at least. A 35 knot system is possible.

[cycloneye]

Oh wow the 12z ECMWF actually does show this. Given their performance this year don’t have much confidence though.

No confidence in that model or no confidence on the system developing?

Lol I’m a ECMWF hack.

No confidence in the system getting as strong as advertised at least. A 35 knot system is possible.

I am more higher on intensity as peak. (75kts)

[Kingarabian]

Quite possible we see a system. Also very possible that it will struggle with dry air or something.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane thru Gulf of California.

[talkon]

.. and 0z GFS drops the big system entirely, lol

[Astromanía]

It's not even funny a this point, if nothing strong form out of this I will not longer follow this season in all basins in northen hemisphere in general.