2019 WPAC Season
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
EURO sticking to it's guns. Has the dateline system even stronger.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
GFS says i'll be there along with a few others...
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Looks like some of the models especially GFS and NAVGEM have begun hinting at another monsoon pattern trying to develop. Interesting to see if the oher models follows suit.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
EPS has favorable Velocity Potential around the time of the dateline system. It also has almost the entire month of September prime for TC activity.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
euro6208 wrote:EURO sticking to it's guns. Has the dateline system even stronger.
https://i.imgur.com/sg9rsTA.png
Down to 938.9 mb on weathermodels.com
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
It's actually quite strong on the Canadian too; about 966 mb at the end of the model run.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Dateline crosser continues to be in the Euro... but GFS very weak.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
12z EPS data
12z ECMWF data
12z ECMWF data
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Potentially 3 storms according to EURO.
Shanghai gets another TC.
The monster has a twin while barreling towards the Marianas. 00Z weaker at peak, 972mb, compared to 12Z's 956mb.
Shanghai gets another TC.
The monster has a twin while barreling towards the Marianas. 00Z weaker at peak, 972mb, compared to 12Z's 956mb.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
This is probrably it.
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located some
650 miles south-southwest of Oahu is associated with a trough
of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to become
more conducive for development over the second half of the week as
it moves west to west-northwest at 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
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NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
UKMET
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 15.7N 179.3E
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.08.2019 16.0N 177.8E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2019 16.4N 174.8E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.08.2019 16.7N 171.8E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 15.7N 179.3E
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.08.2019 16.0N 177.8E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2019 16.4N 174.8E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.08.2019 16.7N 171.8E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
What a change ...
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Major shift north
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Euro continues on the dateline tracker but GFS said nah, it wants something developing near the Marianas instead
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
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Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
In the wake of Tropical Storm Krosa in the West Pacific basin, models depict both a broad and persistent area of low pressure centered in the Philippine Sea which could result in another tropical low developing in the region towards the end of Week-1. Both GEFS and ECMWF models do not show much strengthening of the disturbance once it forms, as it is forecast to track towards the west over eastern China. During Week-2, conditions are expected to become less favorable in the Pacific for tropical cyclogenesis. The GEFS model depicts a stronger tropical low developing over Philippine Sea during the earlier portion of Week-2; however, confidence for the development of this system remains low.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
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NWS for the Western Pacific
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Hayabusa wrote:Euro continues on the dateline tracker but GFS said nah, it wants something developing near the Marianas instead
GFS on a roll with the Marianas system...Varying runs on intensity.
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NWS for the Western Pacific
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NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
EURO bum on the Marianas system.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
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NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
GFS rampant on it. Similiar to EURO, it has a disturbance around the 25th. Could it be from 90C?
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
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NWS for the Western Pacific
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