SE CONUS Coast Watch - Now 97L

[GCANE]

A persistent 850mb vort has setup in the N GOM with an anti-cyclone over TX and associated ridging to its east.
GFS is showing the LL vort to persist from TX to FL into the weekend.
With afternoon popup thunderstorms along the coast, something could start to spin over water.
CAPE is very high here.

[Nimbus]

Infrared signature shows a persistent overnight thunderstorm south of NOLA.
Should be able to see if there is any inflow later this morning.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

Convection firing off, fed by 4000 CAPE air

[northjaxpro]

Another thing to point out is that the steering flow across the GOM looks to be rather weak as the energy looks to meander around the North and Northeast GOM for much of the next several days by the GFS. Whatever develops could hang around for days over the Northern GOM.

[GCANE]

UPDATE:
CAPE now up to 4500.
Shear Gradient may spark off some good convection today.
Stay tuned.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah mentioned this yesterday. Worth watching. Definitely slow turning happening. Needs some sustained deep convection. Maybe this mornings diurnal blow will will help.

Straight south of Pensacola looks like a small vort.

[NDG]

Still very little or no support from models for development, the trough/vorticity looks elongated, the GFS and Euro are showing it to move further inland over north FL/southern GA by the end of the week into the weekend, dry mid level continental air will be very close by. to keep this at bay, IMO.
Just lots of rains for FL, southern GA into coastal Carolinas through the weekend.

[northjaxpro]

The Gulf of Mexico could get very active over the next 10 days if you believe the 240 hour 06Z GFS run this morning.

The Northern Gulf vort we are discussing here in this thread looks to meander for several days across the region. This could bring heavy rain potential for the LA/ North Central /NE Gulf Gulf region the next few days, especially if an organized Low Pressure area develops the next few days.

Also, 06Z GFS brings up a vigorous tropical wave northwest out of the NW Caribbean across the Yucatan Channel and develops it as a potential TD/ TS as it reaches into the Southern Gulf by Aug 21. It then moves it north and comes ashore MS/AL coast by Aug 24. This is just one run.

Lots to watch with the model runs down here in the next few days.

[plasticup]

Convection still quite weak this morning.

[Aric Dunn]

All the models show a low developing and moving ne inland or right along the eastern sea board. If the track is slightly east or the lowngets trapped then a sheared system is not oit of the question. Currently the shear along the north gulf coast is 10kts or less. Then increases as you head south.

Watch that weak circ/ area of convergence south of Pensacola. You can see it in morning 1km visible.

[caneman]

I've learned over the years not to overly rely on model support alone on possible spin ups near land. They don't usually amount to much more than significant rain events but you can get t.d.'s and even t.s.'s with little to no advanced model warning

[northjaxpro]

I've learned over the years not to overly rely on model support alone on possible spin ups near land. They don't usually amount to much more than significant rain events but you can get t.d.'s and even t.s.'s with little to no advanced model warning

Just think of Humberto in 2007 as the best example of how quickly conditions can perculate in the GOM. Humberto became hurricane in 24 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

I've learned over the years not to overly rely on model support alone on possible spin ups near land. They don't usually amount to much more than significant rain events but you can get t.d.'s and even t.s.'s with little to no advanced model warning

Just think of Humberto in 2007 as the best example of how quickly conditions can perculate in the GOM.

A better example is that ts that develpped just west of tampa a few years ago. Was small and none of the nhc people said anything about it.. then Stewart came in on morning shift and bam immediate TS. It was sheared came into Bradenton area. Had a lot of meso vorts around center as it made landfall.

Dont remember the name. Maybe someone can looks it up.

ts emily in 2017 is it i believe

[northjaxpro]

That was T.S. Gabrielle, If my memory serves me correct, in the same year, 2007. I believe the remnants of Gabrielle moved west /northwest or the same trough that spawned Gabrielle eventually spawned Humberto just a few days later I believe once it traversed into a much better conducive environment for development.over the NW Gulf at the time.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: That was T.S. Gabrielle, If my memory serves me correct, in the same year, 2007. I believe the remnants of Gabrielle moved west /northwest or the same trough that spawned Gabrielle eventually spawned Humberto just a few days later I believe once it traversed into a much better conducive environment for development.over the NW Gulf at the time.

It was TS emily in 2017..

[NDG]

If anything comes out of this is that it will leave a weakness behind for whatever forms or does not from the tropical wave coming across the Atlantic into the western Caribbean to move up into this general area, IMO.

[GCANE]

CAPE now 5500.
6000 is the most I have ever seen.

[caneman]

:uarrow: That was T.S. Gabrielle, If my memory serves me correct, in the same year, 2007. I believe the remnants of Gabrielle moved west /northwest or the same trough that spawned Gabrielle eventually spawned Humberto just a few days later I believe once it traversed into a much better conducive environment for development.over the NW Gulf at the time.

It was TS emily in 2017..

https://3c1703fe8d.site.internapcdn.net/newman/gfx/news/2017/36-nasaseestrop.jpg

There have been many. Wasnt Debby kind of the same way? I remember one off the east coast of Florida several years back spun p I believe just east of Jacksonsville or a bit further South near land

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: That was T.S. Gabrielle, If my memory serves me correct, in the same year, 2007. I believe the remnants of Gabrielle moved west /northwest or the same trough that spawned Gabrielle eventually spawned Humberto just a few days later I believe once it traversed into a much better conducive environment for development.over the NW Gulf at the time.

It was TS emily in 2017..

https://3c1703fe8d.site.internapcdn.net/newman/gfx/news/2017/36-nasaseestrop.jpg

There have been many. Wasnt Debby kind of the same way? I remember one off the east coast of Florida several years back spun p I believe just east of Jacksonsville or a bit further South near land

Yeah there have been many quick spin ups. I think Emily is best analog.. very similar set up right now.