SE CONUS Coast Watch - Now 97L

[Aric Dunn]

You can clearly see the circ on vis. With inflow into that convection south of Pensacola. Its still weak but if convection keeps doing that and expands a little then its time to watch more. Surface obs show its closed just broad.

The seabreezes later will likely disrupt the weak infoiw from the N and Ne. Unless deep convection builds and pressure falls a little.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

This buoy is close to the center of the surface low.

[GCANE]

CIMSS is showing increasing 850mb vort

[GCANE]

This tower looks interesting.
Tons of lightning.
Over the surface low.
Minimal Shear.
Two inflow channels from the NNE and NW.

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing anything there. Looking at the satellite loop, I see a good bit of ENE wind shear, too.

[Aric Dunn]

The weak circ was to fragile. The seabreezes have opened it back up. Just have to keep watching.

[GCANE]

The weak circ was to fragile. The seabreezes have opened it back up. Just have to keep watching.

Downdrafts / outflows from afternoon popups along the coast could turn these winds around later today.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I've learned over the years not to overly rely on model support alone on possible spin ups near land. They don't usually amount to much more than significant rain events but you can get t.d.'s and even t.s.'s with little to no advanced model warning

Just think of Humberto in 2007 as the best example of how quickly conditions can perculate in the GOM.

A better example is that ts that develpped just west of tampa a few years ago. Was small and none of the nhc people said anything about it.. then Stewart came in on morning shift and bam immediate TS. It was sheared came into Bradenton area. Had a lot of meso vorts around center as it made landfall.

Dont remember the name. Maybe someone can looks it up.

ts emily in 2017 is it i believe

Emily was part of a frontal boundary and was a Piece of energy left behind. I see nothing yet in this area that would be concerning. We will see


She also did not get enough credit. For a 40mph system she certainly did alot of damage down in riverview

[NDG]

This persisten trough/weakness over the SE US the past few weeks is sort of the monsoons in southern Asia for us here in the FL Peninsula, SW moist surface winds with diffluent UL NE winds on top of it. What a wet season we keep having over central FL ever since it started back in May, you guys in southern TX can have our rains any time, would be nice if the Bermuda ridge finally builds in and dries us out for a while.

[caneman]

This persisten trough/weakness over the SE US the past few weeks is sort of the monsoons in southern Asia for us here in the FL Peninsula, SW moist surface winds with diffluent UL NE winds on top of it. What a wet season we keep having over central FL ever since it started back in May, you guys in southern TX can have our rains any time, would be nice if the Bermuda ridge finally builds in and dries us out for a while.


https://i.imgur.com/tvMZ6cR.png

I agree. All if this rain sucks. Weird pattern for Pinellas county. Weird to be getting rain off the gulf in the morning and then on and off throughout the day in summer. Seems El Ninoish. Thought we were out of Nino?

[bamajammer4eva]

Euro increases vorticity after 48 hrs even though it's over land

[NDG]

This persisten trough/weakness over the SE US the past few weeks is sort of the monsoons in southern Asia for us here in the FL Peninsula, SW moist surface winds with diffluent UL NE winds on top of it. What a wet season we keep having over central FL ever since it started back in May, you guys in southern TX can have our rains any time, would be nice if the Bermuda ridge finally builds in and dries us out for a while.


https://i.imgur.com/tvMZ6cR.png

I agree. All if this rain sucks. Weird pattern for Pinellas county. Weird to be getting rain off the gulf in the morning and then on and off throughout the day in summer. Seems El Ninoish. Thought we were out of Nino?

Yes sort of El Ninosh pattern still in place, there is no mid level cap in the atmosphere to keep the storms from popping just about every day, is also not unusual to have during a Neutral ENSO but definitely not a La Nina pattern which is completely the opposite to this most times.
Weakness over the southern US is very concerning as we head into the peak of the season, IMO.

[NotSparta]

This persisten trough/weakness over the SE US the past few weeks is sort of the monsoons in southern Asia for us here in the FL Peninsula, SW moist surface winds with diffluent UL NE winds on top of it. What a wet season we keep having over central FL ever since it started back in May, you guys in southern TX can have our rains any time, would be nice if the Bermuda ridge finally builds in and dries us out for a while.


https://i.imgur.com/tvMZ6cR.png

I agree. All if this rain sucks. Weird pattern for Pinellas county. Weird to be getting rain off the gulf in the morning and then on and off throughout the day in summer. Seems El Ninoish. Thought we were out of Nino?

No, it's more troughing up north. There's a front digging down into the SE states

[caneman]

This persisten trough/weakness over the SE US the past few weeks is sort of the monsoons in southern Asia for us here in the FL Peninsula, SW moist surface winds with diffluent UL NE winds on top of it. What a wet season we keep having over central FL ever since it started back in May, you guys in southern TX can have our rains any time, would be nice if the Bermuda ridge finally builds in and dries us out for a while.




https://i.imgur.com/tvMZ6cR.png

I agree. All if this rain sucks. Weird pattern for Pinellas county. Weird to be getting rain off the gulf in the morning and then on and off throughout the day in summer. Seems El Ninoish. Thought we were out of Nino?

No, it's more troughing up north. There's a front digging down into the SE states

It's been digging for days and what seems weeks now. Its been a consistent type pattern or a combination with El Nino

[Aric Dunn]

There is a old trough that has been sitting in the gulf for many days and another is entering now..

[Aric Dunn]

distinct inflow streamers into that deep convection building offshore on radar.

[tropicwatch]

It could have quite the setup above it if convection builds.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

[GCANE]

The 250mb ridge is strongly anchored from SW TX to SE GA.
Strong vort has been oscillating from 850mb to 500mb.
CAPE is at the top of the scale.
Still watching this for the next couple days.

[northjaxpro]

Tampa radar this morning, along with RGB satellite imagery early this morning to me is suggesting thst some type of mid-level rotation is occuring at approx 28.5 N 84.0 W. Something that caught my eye this morning.

I am checking buoys to see if there is any indication of any surface reflection. I do not think there is yet. However, southerly winds have picked up during the pre-dawn hours here at my home station early this morning. They are blowing at 15 -20 mph with gusts to 25 mph this hour.
Very heavy rain and cells just off the West Central coast of Florida this morning.

Regardless, heavy rainfall is anticipated across North Florida today as a very moist and unstable airmass remains anchored across this region, thanks to the persistent surface trough across North Florida and into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico.