SE CONUS Coast Watch - Now 97L

[northjaxpro]

Checked buoys over Northeast GOM and as I expected, no surface reflection yet. Pressures across the NE GOM I found mainly in the 1012-1014 mb range.

EDIT

Note: Interesting to see that 06Z GFS run initialized a 1012 mb Low just off the coast of Panama City. I am checking to see if that is indeed the case.

[Frank P]

convection increasing in the general area this morning...

[ronjon]

Checked buoys over Northeast GOM and as I expected, no surface reflection yet. Pressures across the NE GOM I found mainly in the 1012-1014 mb range.

Indeed northjax...winds picking up along the west coast here in Hernando county. Southerly direction 10-20 mph. Ive picked up 9.37 inches of rain since Monday. Hints of broad rotation on radar in NE GOM but appears to be midlevel.

[northjaxpro]

Checked buoys over Northeast GOM and as I expected, no surface reflection yet. Pressures across the NE GOM I found mainly in the 1012-1014 mb range.

Indeed northjax...winds picking up along the west coast here in Hernando county. Southerly direction 10-20 mph. Ive picked up 9.37 inches of rain since Monday. Hints of broad rotation on radar in NE GOM but appears to be midlevel.

Yeah, I checked the buoys in the area, which I spoke about in the previous post. There is mid-level rotation for sure.

It would not take much more of a convective burst to get a surface reflection to work itself down I will tell you all that . I would watch this area very closely today.

[Aric Dunn]

Weak circulation just offshore. Convection building quickly. Just need to keep building to tighten the circ. It should stay pretty much stationary or drift around for awhile still.

But overall curvature has increased. Lets see what happens once the seabreezes kick in again..

I would watch the big bend area or just sw of port st joe

[northjaxpro]

Tallahassee NWS Radar indeed corresponds to satellite imagery in showing a broad, weak circulation just off shore to the south/southeast of Apalachicola /Saint Marks, FL. It looks as if we have two vortices within a broader circulation.

Very interesting seeing this on radar this morning.

Convection continues to increase around it this morning.

[Aric Dunn]

Radar is starting to show a lot of cell beginning to bend back to the nw in the big bend region. ... curving around possibly... if convection does not collapse could slowly see something if it stays offshore.

[NDG]

Overall still very broad trough of low pressure with a couple of mid level vorticities, yet another rainy day, mold everywhere here in central FL

[wxman57]

Nothing at the surface. Pressures not very low. Looks like wind shear will be increasing over the next day or so. Development chances still very minimal.

[northjaxpro]

The main energy (vorticies) are focused mainly over Apalachee Bay/off the Big Bend of Florida coast this morning. I propose mods to change title of thread to Disturbed Weather over Northeast GOM.

[ronjon]

5 hour radar loop from SFWMD - convection really building over the NE GOM this am.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

[StormLogic]

its dead jim

[Aric Dunn]

5 hour radar loop from SFWMD - convection really building over the NE GOM this am.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

Yeah and you can see the broad circ slowly taking shape.

If convection continues... then there is a real chance something will tighten up at the surface.

[StormLogic]

basically -removed- at this point, its dead

[ronjon]

06z GFS wants to form vorticity just north of Cedar Key early tomorrow am and then shoot it N-NE.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2019081506&fh=18

[SEASON_CANCELED]

5 hour radar loop from SFWMD - convection really building over the NE GOM this am.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

Yeah and you can see the broad circ slowly taking shape.

If convection continues... then there is a real chance something will tighten up at the surface.

There is a definate circulation about 75-60 milesish west of Cross City/Cedar Key

Very visible from tampa radar.

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 81506&fh=6

NAM 3km just moves sort of a frontal type spin across NE FL. I think the real deal (or the almost real deal) might be next week in Texas with something coming up from the South or SSE. JMA progged to hit Phase 2 MJO which has been a good indicator of development last year and this one.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... jman.shtml

[Aric Dunn]

Area where the individual cells on the west side are drifting south and cells on east are moving north. Best area to watch for the moment. Convection as usual has to keep firing.

[Aric Dunn]

Also another possibility is the area south of LA some broad rotation there as well.

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely a broad weak circ. Has formed but will it have time to do anything more is the question.