2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1161965882370940930

[TheStormExpert]

Or we'll get 1914 2.0

I think we’re already slightly ahead of that year.

Either way I’m dying to track some storms and hurricanes that harmlessly affect nobody. Honestly in my opinion I don’t think this season will have much of that to offer.

Maybe the NHC will find that Andrea wasn't really a storm, and Barry was never a hurricane, and there's no more activity for the rest of the season

I’d be ok with that considering neither were likely true.

[SFLcane]

Everything is suggesting a favorable large-scale pretty soon so we shall see.

[cycloneye]

Everything is suggesting a favorable large-scale pretty soon so we shall see.

I just posted on the ENSO Thread another factor that could be favorable per Ventrice.

[SFLcane]

Here we go...

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1161978343442354176

[SFLcane]

That 500mb though in Sept... Dangerous

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1161966476624093184

[SFLcane]

Shear looks horrible but It's just a brief period due to the suppressed phase of the KW. It'll let up again soon

[NotSparta]

Shear looks horrible but It's just a brief period due to the suppressed phase of the KW. It'll let up again soon

Yeah, w/ the way CCKWs are aligned, it's no surprise there's westerly shear

[SFLcane]

They are coming..

 https://twitter.com/stormchaserjs/status/1161958931775799296

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/stormchaserjs/status/1162097217945186305

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/stormchaserjs/status/1162097478822481920

[SFLcane]

Look at those ssts in the bahamas and around SFL just wow if anything gets into the SW Atl.

[StruThiO]

Maybe the switch is finally flipping

[LarryWx]

https://twitter.com/stormchaserjs/status/1162097478822481920

I should point out that most, if not all, of those TCs off the US east coast at hour 360 are actually from the wave we're following for possible GOM tropical dev. as a majority of the members that have genesis in the GOM later move NE to offshore the east coast, when some of them slow down and start meandering all of the way through the end of the run

[Kingarabian]

They are coming..

https://twitter.com/stormchaserjs/status/1161958931775799296

WPAC and EPAC had a lot of rising motion this season yet not much TC activity to show for it.

[BYG Jacob]

They are coming..

https://twitter.com/stormchaserjs/status/1161958931775799296

WPAC and EPAC had a lot of rising motion this season yet not much TC activity to show for it.

At the very least it will make the background state in the Atlantic less hostile.

[wxman57]

I see that Derek Ortt posted results of a study on seasonal activity back to 1959. He was looking at the number of named storms up to August 15th vs. how many named storms formed in the whole season. Climatology suggests that NOAA's numbers are way too high. We could well see fewer than 10 named storms this year. Note that this is just climatology, and it doesn't take into consideration current naming procedures which are much more liberal than in the past. Of course, that would have meant that we'd only have had 1 named storm up to today way back in time.

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1162104940799692800

[LarryWx]

I see that Derek Ortt posted results of a study on seasonal activity back to 1959. He was looking at the number of named storms up to August 15th vs. how many named storms formed in the whole season. Climatology suggests that NOAA's numbers are way too high. We could well see fewer than 10 named storms this year. Note that this is just climatology, and it doesn't take into consideration current naming procedures which are much more liberal than in the past. Of course, that would have meant that we'd only have had 1 named storm up to today way back in time.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1162104940799692800

The bottom graph suggests that the best guess for number of storms post August 15 is 7-8 meaning we have a very long way to go. Best guess for season total as of now is near 10.

Edit: More telling will be where we stand as of 8/31. IF we have no more this month, then we really fall behind. All years since 2001 have had at least one TC genesis 8/21-31. Despite the chance for the GOM storm late next week, it still looks rather quiet vs climo imo.

[NotSparta]

They are coming..

https://twitter.com/stormchaserjs/status/1161958931775799296

WPAC and EPAC had a lot of rising motion this season yet not much TC activity to show for it.

Didn't a lot of the storms get sheared?

[TheStormExpert]

Look at those ssts in the bahamas and around SFL just wow if anything gets into the SW Atl.

https://i.imgur.com/iQAOuIM.png

The warmest waters (90°F) in the North Atlantic basin now reside west of Andros Island in the Central Bahamas. Not good for FL if something was coming from the SE towards the state.