SE CONUS Coast Watch - Now 97L

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at surface obs. Looks like there is a circ sitting inland just ne of cedar key. That should move to the ne.. the 00z euro and even the gfs ans legacy maybe onto something.

[GCANE]

Rapid Scan, RAMMB-Slider
Sector: Mesoscale 1

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 478&y=1272

[caneman]

When will this feature move off of us in the Tampa Bay area? I can't believe how many days it has rained for and how much. Reminds me of T.s. Debby. Over it.

gonna be awhile yet

We could also still see some development. We are starting to get some serouis flooding in New Port Richey/Clearwater area

They closed a couple lanes on Seminole Blvd. Due to flooding. Largo-Seminole getting hammered. Heck the whole west coast. It seems worst is right over Tampa Bay area

[NDG]

The lack of tropical activity is making you guys see mirages
Disregard last night’s Euro it loved spinning up stuff with frontal/trough areas.

[wxman57]

There is absolutely no surface circulation in the NE Gulf, and there is no chance of development there. It's just showers and thunderstorms in moderate wind shear. You will not need any plywood in Florida from this mess. Send some of that rain over here.

[Aric Dunn]

I think it blocking time..


Anyway. looks like there is a surface reflection inland just about where the models show the vorticity increasing and then lifting NE.

everywhere along this boundary still has potential..

[psyclone]

I wish we could. We're well above normal in terms of rain during what is already the wettest month of the year here. This pattern is expected to break starting tomorrow so at least there's an end in sight and it has yielded comfortable rain cooled temps so that's a plus. But this sets the stage for future problems if we get tropical impacts later on. Florida drains slowly so it won't take much to cause more hydro issues and trees are more vulnerable to toppling with the saturated ground. Here's to hoping for some sun soon..

[Aric Dunn]

NW winds are picking up and curvature in the low level clouds.. CIrc is somewhere inland near the coast. this should move off to the ENE to NE so some development is possible if it moves offshore in the atlantic in a day or two.. similar to the various models.

looks like north of horseshoe beach.

[HurricaneBelle]

 https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/1162382337696571399

[Aric Dunn]

Closed broad CIrc. definitely needs to be watched as it moves offshore into the atlantic in the next couple days. assuming it stays off shore.

also the tail end of the boundary still over the gulf needs to as well.

[northjaxpro]

No circulation uh? Yes, there is your evidence right there, along with Postel's analysis. something I also was tracking earlier today for those who doubted this.... EURO I think may be right about this as this may really spin up off the coast of GA/SC in about 24 hours or so..

[Aric Dunn]

The 00z GFS Legacy is very similar to the EURO 00z

[LarryWx]

Fortunately, even IF this were to spin up offshore the SE, it will be moving NE away from the SE...i.e., not risk of it getting trapped by a high to its north.

[northjaxpro]

The Nature Coast region is absolutely getting deluged with substantial rainfall on the southern side of the broad circulation which is just inland in Levy County, and Gilchrist County and Dixie County.

[northjaxpro]

This broad circulation area will move directly over the Jax area tonight as it emerges off the NE FL/SE GA/ SC coast area. I think development looks decent once it traverses into the Atlantic. Nice pick up by the EURO from late yesterday/last evening.

[GCANE]

Usually convection starts to wash out this time of day.
Doesn't look like it will today.
I think we may still need to watch the north GOM into mid next week.
GFS is hinting at something spinning up south of the MS Delta.

[Aric Dunn]

Usually convection starts to wash out this time of day.
Doesn't look like it will today.
I think we may still need to watch the north GOM into mid next week.
GFS is hinting at something spinning up south of the MS Delta.

Yeah, also the local sea breezes have not been able to form this time indicating the circulation is expanding, even over land pressures should slowly fall.

[GCANE]

[northjaxpro]

The circulation center is moving northeast at a decent clip. The broad center is already moving over Lake City (Columbia County), indicated on Jax NWS Radar and should be entering the western portions of Duval/ Jax metro by late this afternoon/early evening.

Heavy rainfall potential for Northeast Florida later tonight as the broad center moves off the coast of NE Florida and Southeast GA.

[Aric Dunn]

circ still looks fairly close to the gulf coast. overall it is becoming more circular slowly.

It is establishing itself and as it moves ene to ne as we all have mentioned. could see some development.