Disturbed Weather in North-NorthWestern GOM (Is Invest 90L)

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GEFS has the least support for this of any of the last 2 days or so, even less than the 6Z, which itself was less active than the prior few runs. It still looks like it has one member out of 20+ with a TX H. Almost all geneses end up going into TX or LA.

This run is saying that if there is no GOM genesis from this, there is a good shot at no TCs during the entire month fwiw. At least that's what the run is saying.

[NDG]

Yeap, I was about to post that ensembles support for development is even less than its earlier 06z run.

The weird thing is that the 12z GFS still shows the wave to really blossom over the southern GOM as it tracks NW to NNW but I think because it now shows the UL anticyclone to stay south over the southern GOM it now shows a more hostile environment when the wave axis reaches the western GOM. IMO.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: Yeap, I was about to post that ensembles support for development is even less than its earlier 06z run.

The weird thing is that the 12z GFS still shows the wave to really blossom over the southern GOM as it tracks NW to NNW but I think because it now shows the UL anticyclone to stay south over the southern GOM it now shows a more hostile environment when the wave axis reaches the western GOM. IMO.

Also,outflow from a Hurricane the the model develops in EPac is a factor.

[SoupBone]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1162405910364545024

I pointed this out! Usually, I'm the "shear" guy, and as I know it can change, it's been a persistent feature for several weeks now. I know things can change, but for a flip to switch and turn off the shear, I just wasn't buying it. Still.....it is nearing peak season so who knows?

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1162405910364545024

I pointed this out! Usually, I'm the "shear" guy, and as I know it can change, it's been a persistent feature for several weeks now. I know things can change, but for a flip to switch and turn off the shear, I just wasn't buying it. Still.....it is nearing peak season so who knows?

Actually the models are persistent that UL westerly winds across the Caribbean Sea will lift north as the TUTT moves north of Hispaniola and PR. Is the strong low level diverging jet across the central Caribbean that will keep the wave from developing while in the Caribbean. I am sure lingering dry dusty air will also have a part in it.

[TheProfessor]

The trend has been for a stronger EPAC system that doesn't quickly weaken while also being further east. This would help limit development for any Gulf system if it's accurate.

[SoupBone]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1162405910364545024

I pointed this out! Usually, I'm the "shear" guy, and as I know it can change, it's been a persistent feature for several weeks now. I know things can change, but for a flip to switch and turn off the shear, I just wasn't buying it. Still.....it is nearing peak season so who knows?

Actually the models are persistent that UL westerly winds across the Caribbean Sea will lift north as the TUTT moves north of Hispaniola and PR. Is the strong low level diverging jet across the central Caribbean that will keep the wave from developing while in the Caribbean. I am sure lingering dry dusty air will also have a part in it.

https://i.imgur.com/V4JZaBW.gif

SAL isn't quite as potent as it was a few weeks ago, but it is definitely still there. Also, aside from SAL, Mexico through the upper Texas Coast has had little measurable rain and it is bone dry in the atmosphere. I'm sure it wouldn't take much to moisten up the environment, but it's been brutally dry since June.

[Nederlander]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1162405910364545024

I pointed this out! Usually, I'm the "shear" guy, and as I know it can change, it's been a persistent feature for several weeks now. I know things can change, but for a flip to switch and turn off the shear, I just wasn't buying it. Still.....it is nearing peak season so who knows?

Well now that ENSO is neutral, the corresponding shift in the Walker Circulation should lead to less sinking air over the tropical atl. and thus less shear. I am not familiar with how long this process takes though.

[TheProfessor]

This paints a good picture on how the Ensembles have changed the last 2 runs. They've been coming more on board with an EPAC system, thus limiting the potential of a Gulf one. The 2 interesting things will be. How strong does the EPAC system get and for how long. And, does the tropical wave actually make it into the Gulf. Obviously if it doesn't everything is moot. But if for a bit we assume that the wave will make it into the Gulf as a weak sheared system, then all eyes should be on the development of the EPAC storm.

[cycloneye]

Reached 60W.

[cycloneye]

CPC has a shaded area in GOM for the period 21-27.

[SoupBone]

CPC has a shaded area in GOM for the period 21-27.

https://i.imgur.com/zpyVlCn.png

Hmmm, so they don't think the models have a good grasp of the system.

[Cpv17]

CPC has a shaded area in GOM for the period 21-27.

https://i.imgur.com/zpyVlCn.png

Hmmm, so they don't think the models have a good grasp of the system.

That’s correct. It could be one of those situations where the models pick up on it in the lr, drop it in the middle, only to pick back up on it again in the short.

[cycloneye]

Wave axis has entered the Eastern Caribbean.

[Aric Dunn]

well on a side note.. the current situation in the SW Carib is interesting,... very vigorous MID level circ with deep convection firing with it.. radar is also very interesting.. the convective pattern is well.. yeah..

it will be inland in 24 hours.. but yeah.. lol

http://meteorologia.aerocivil.gov.co/ra ... 00.5%20deg


http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 700&MAPP=1

zoom in

[floridasun78]

well on a side note.. the current situation in the SW Carib is interesting,... very vigorous MID level circ with deep convection firing with it.. radar is also very interesting.. the convective pattern is well.. yeah..

it will be inland in 24 hours.. but yeah.. lol

http://meteorologia.aerocivil.gov.co/ra ... 00.5%20deg


http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 700&MAPP=1

zoom in

i been looking that area north of Panama my self but look may run into central America soon that why nhc not putting it on map not moving nw into nw Caribbean

[NDG]

The last 5 or 6 GFS runs has been fairly persistent that a piece of energy lagging behind this TW will eventually move towards the Greater Antilles into the FL Straights with a possibility of development as it reaches this area into the SE GOM, this is an area completely different from the possible system in the western GOM next week. Now I am not even sure if the moisture going into the western GOM is from this wave, could be from another TW.
Edit: may I add that this area has very little if any ensemble support for development.

[SoupBone]

The last 5 or 6 GFS runs has been fairly persistent that a piece of energy lagging behind this TW will eventually move towards the Greater Antilles into the FL Straights with a possibility of development as it reaches this area into the SE GOM, this is an area completely different from the possible system in the western GOM next week. Now I am not even sure if the moisture going into the western GOM is from this wave, could be from another TW.
Edit: may I add that this area has very little if any ensemble support for development.

https://i.imgur.com/UKt2oRY.gif

https://i.imgur.com/G7Vccyt.gif

I think that's the concern, the energy will still survive, then who knows when it reaches the GoM?

[Cpv17]

The last 5 or 6 GFS runs has been fairly persistent that a piece of energy lagging behind this TW will eventually move towards the Greater Antilles into the FL Straights with a possibility of development as it reaches this area into the SE GOM, this is an area completely different from the possible system in the western GOM next week. Now I am not even sure if the moisture going into the western GOM is from this wave, could be from another TW.
Edit: may I add that this area has very little if any ensemble support for development.

https://i.imgur.com/UKt2oRY.gif

https://i.imgur.com/G7Vccyt.gif

I think that's the concern, the energy will still survive, then who knows when it reaches the GoM?

I just want some rain already. 90 to 100 degrees every day since mid June with only 1.5” of rain is not a good combination. It could rain 5” here and the ground would soak it up like nothing. Definitely don’t want a hurricane though lol but I’m not very confident about this tropical wave giving us any rain any longer. It doesn’t look like it’ll survive the shredder of death (Caribbean) and the EPAC system will hurt its chances too.

[NDG]

The last 5 or 6 GFS runs has been fairly persistent that a piece of energy lagging behind this TW will eventually move towards the Greater Antilles into the FL Straights with a possibility of development as it reaches this area into the SE GOM, this is an area completely different from the possible system in the western GOM next week. Now I am not even sure if the moisture going into the western GOM is from this wave, could be from another TW.
Edit: may I add that this area has very little if any ensemble support for development.

https://i.imgur.com/UKt2oRY.gif

https://i.imgur.com/G7Vccyt.gif

I think that's the concern, the energy will still survive, then who knows when it reaches the GoM?

I just want some rain already. 90 to 100 degrees every day since mid June with only 1.5” of rain is not a good combination. It could rain 5” here and the ground would soak it up like nothing. Definitely don’t want a hurricane though lol but I’m not very confident about this tropical wave giving us any rain any longer. It doesn’t look like it’ll survive the shredder of death (Caribbean) and the EPAC system will hurt its chances too.

Outflow from EPAC system is forecasted to stay well west of whatever gets to the GOM next week as easterly shear will be affecting the EPAC system disrupting its outflow on its eastern quadrant.