SE CONUS Coast Watch - Now 97L

[wxman57]

I'm still not seeing any sign of a surface circulation, just straight SW winds across northern Florida. Don't see any tropical threat in the Gulf or off the SE U.S. coast. Wind shear 30-50 kts. More rain for Florida, but that's it. We may well make it through August with no named storms. That would suit me just fine.

[NDG]

Nothing more than a very wet surface trough with an elongated mid level vortex this evening.

[Aric Dunn]

As Psyclone mentioned a short time ago, we are in DMIN currently , so we will se later on tjis evening what will trsnspirevwith this system.

However, one glaring thing I do note this evening is the contenental dry air just.north and west of this tough axis.up across Georgia and the Western Florida Panhandle. Temps reached ear q00 degrees in oortiond of the Florida Pandle and across much.of North and Central Today.

I have feeling that dry air may.put the whammy on thid sydtem developing any further. We will see if DMAX later tonightbwill refire convection on the system as it moves off the NE FL/SE GA coast late tonight into early tomorrow morning.

Current barometric pressure measured currently here at my home station is at 29.96 inches or at 1014.2 mb.

SW wind 11 mph, with a gust to 15-20 mph at times this past hour.

The circ is nearly over jax. Should be offshore by morning assuming it continues its current motion.

[wxman57]

The circ is nearly over jax. Should be offshore by morning assuming it continues its current motion.

I still see no circulation across northern Florida. I have no idea what you're looking at. Any rotation you think that you are seeing is not at the surface.

[northjaxpro]

There was a prominent vort/ swirl today across North Florida 57.Most of it I believe stayed in the mid levels. Convection waned off this afternoon and we did not get a true surface reflection to quite work its way entirely to the surface.

It still merits monitoring 57. You know this as a pro met and analyst like I am. I am not going to get drawn into this back and forth dialogue about this on this thread. I respect you and hopefully the feeling is mutual towards me.

Development or not, this system is causing lots of problems with flooding down state and we will have more rain to deal with across our area for a few more days.



.

[NDG]

The circ is nearly over jax. Should be offshore by morning assuming it continues its current motion.

I still see no circulation across northern Florida. I have no idea what you're looking at. Any rotation you think that you are seeing is not at the surface.

Aric is looking at this weak vortex just west of JAX which is clearly not at the surface.

[caneman]

Nothing more than a very wet surface trough with an elongated mid level vortex this evening.


https://i.imgur.com/DI9Ldu9.gif

Little more than that. We are getting hammered right now with what seems close to t.s. force winds in Tampa Bay. I would have posted a video if I knew how but if you didn't know any better, you would think we were getting hit by a t.d. or t.s. even the wife who doesnt track this stuff asked if we were getting hit by a tropical storm.

[Nimbus]

There was a prominent vort/ swirl today across North Florida 57.Most of it I believe stayed in the mid levels. Convection waned off this afternoon and we did not get a true surface reflection to quite work its way entirely to the surface.

It still merits monitoring 57. You know this as a pro met and analyst like I am. I am not going to get drawn into this back and forth dialogue about this on this thread. I respect you and hopefully the feeling is mutual towards me.

Development or not, this system is causing lots of problems with flooding down state and we will have more rain to deal with across our area for a few more days.



.

I've seen several transient vorts including one over Tampa bay. Surface pressures are pretty high and the surface winds are out of the SW. Haven't seen anything below 29.82 which was just diurnal low pressure during an evening thunderstorm.

[caneman]

There was a prominent vort/ swirl today across North Florida 57.Most of it I believe stayed in the mid levels. Convection waned off this afternoon and we did not get a true surface reflection to quite work its way entirely to the surface.

It still merits monitoring 57. You know this as a pro met and analyst like I am. I am not going to get drawn into this back and forth dialogue about this on this thread. I respect you and hopefully the feeling is mutual towards me.

Development or not, this system is causing lots of problems with flooding down state and we will have more rain to deal with across our area for a few more days.



.

I've seen several transient vorts including one over Tampa bay. Surface pressures are pretty high and the surface winds are out of the SW. Haven't seen anything below 29.82 which was just diurnal low pressure during an evening thunderstorm.

It's odd though right now with the winds you would think we are getting hit by a tropical storm.

[Nancy Smar]

A surface trough of low pressure is producing a large but
disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms over the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico and across northeastern Florida. Any tropical
development of this system is expected to be slow to occur over the
next few days while it moves northeastward at 5 to 10 mph near the
coasts of Georgia, South and North Carolina. Regardless of
development, the disturbance is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall along with a threat of flash flooding in that region.
Please see information from your local National Weather Service
office or the Weather Prediction Center's Excessive Rainfall Outlook
for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[caneman]

Just saw a weather update for Pinellas Severe storm watch moving at 30 mph and 60 mph wind gusts!!

[caneman]

Just saw a weather update for Pinellas Severe storm watch moving at 30 mph and 60 mph wind gusts!!

[northjaxpro]

Rght NDG. It is the same vort I have followed since early this morning. It really sparked convection earlier as it moved ashore this morning, but convection waned and it did not quite attain a surface reflection yet. We will see what happens overnight and watch if EURO was close in its run last night which progged this to develop off GA/SC for tomorrow.

[northjaxpro]

Well, NHC gave our litte booger in.my backyard currently a mention in its TWO this evening. Well for them in Coral Gables to do this, is an interesting development indeed .

[wxman57]

I think the NHC is too high on development potential. The environment across the NE Gulf is not favorable for development. Wind shear only increases through the weekend. More rain for Florida, though. The disturbance east of the Caribbean has a better shot at developing, but not within the next 5 days.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019081612/gfs_shear_watl_5.png

[wxman57]

The circ is nearly over jax. Should be offshore by morning assuming it continues its current motion.

I still see no circulation across northern Florida. I have no idea what you're looking at. Any rotation you think that you are seeing is not at the surface.

Aric is looking at this weak vortex just west of JAX which is clearly not at the surface.

https://i.imgur.com/8wIScR7.gif

That was my main point - there was nothing at the surface.

[Aric Dunn]

And there was/is a surface reflection. Late afternoon local seabreezes obscured it. But surface obs did not lie.

blah blah blah. Oh wait its dead jim right? Zero chance was it ? ..
lol

[robbielyn]

Nothing more than a very wet surface trough with an elongated mid level vorticity this evening.


https://i.imgur.com/DI9Ldu9.gif

Little more than that. We are getting hammered right now with what seems close to t.s. force winds in Tampa Bay. I would have posted a video if I knew how but if you didn't know any better, you would think we were getting hit by a t.d. or t.s. even the wife who doesnt track this stuff asked if we were getting hit by a tropical storm.

Yeah here too in hernando county but it was not from a thunderstorm, no lightening or thunder. just squally weather 25mph with light rain. but the winds picked up for a while. twitter some one posted called it a meso low and bay news 9 reported yeah two or three of them in last couple of days.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Very low clouds going CCW in lutz florida..

We sure this isnt tropical??

I know...its not. But i guess it doesnt matter since water is everywhere

[northjaxpro]

The vort moving.over Northeast Florida is at about the 700 mb level. It is rotating now over Clay , Bradford and Putnam County in NE Florida currently and will move over Jax metro over the next few hours.
Convection is gradually beginning to build up again on Radar south of the mid-level circulation; especially down across Ocala and convection starting again near along the Nature Coast. This will pivot north- northeast overnight, and spread across the NE Florida region.

DMAX is coming soon and we will see what will take place overnight and especially the next 12--24 hours as the mid-level circulatuon moves off shore of the GA coast tomorrow morning.