ATL: CHANTAL - Remnants

[tolakram]

AL, 97, 2019081618, , BEST, 0, 306N, 821W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS012, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012,
AL, 97, 2019081700, , BEST, 0, 312N, 817W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS012, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012,
AL, 97, 2019081706, , BEST, 0, 318N, 812W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS012, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012,
AL, 97, 2019081712, , BEST, 0, 323N, 806W, 25, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS012, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012,
AL, 97, 2019081718, , BEST, 0, 328N, 800W, 25, 1013, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012, SPAWNINVEST, al742019 to al972019,

old thread: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120415

[NDG]

This definitely now has a closed surface circulation, still small but no longer just a MCV.

[tolakram]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A surface trough is producing a band of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northeast Gulf of Mexico northeastward across the
coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The shower
activity is currently most concentrated near a small area of low
pressure located along the trough near the South Carolina coast.
Tropical development of this system, if any, is likely to be slow as
the disturbance moves northeastward along the eastern coast of the
United States with increasing forward speed during the few days.
Regardless of development, the disturbance is forecast to produce
heavy rainfall along with a threat of flash flooding in that region.
Please see products from your local National Weather Service office
or the Weather Prediction Center's Excessive Rainfall Outlook for
more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Avila

[northjaxpro]

Well, 1014 mb.pressure, not very.Low , but we finally have a surface LLC.

I am thinking we will squeeze out a TD from this . We may get Chantal in the next 24-36 hours.

We will see if we will squeeze out a named cyclone finally before the month of August ends

[Hammy]

Ironic they lower the chances and declare an invest two hours later.

[Hurricaneman]

Ironic they lower the chances and declare an invest two hours later.

I’m thinking they thought it was a MCV feature and it would dissipate but it happened to be a LLC and this might be a case where they realized they were wrong and are correcting it accordingly

[Hammy]

Ironic they lower the chances and declare an invest two hours later.

I’m thinking they thought it was a MCV feature and it would dissipate but it happened to be a LLC and this might be a case where they realized they were wrong and are correcting it accordingly

8pm discussion will certainly be interesting.

[CrazyC83]

This reminds me of Debby and Ernesto from last year. High latitude off a non-tropical MCV.

[northjaxpro]

Checking Charleston NWS Radar composites this hour and visible satellite imagery, it looks like the small LLC of Invest 97L is hugging the SC coast, located midway between Charleston and Georgetown, moving northeast.

[Hammy]

Would be nice if this and the GoM system would both develop so my August post in the poll would be right.

[hipshot]

Would be nice if this and the GoM system would both develop so my August post in the poll would be right.

What GOM system are you talking about?

[Hammy]

Would be nice if this and the GoM system would both develop so my August post in the poll would be right.

What GOM system are you talking about?

N Gulf off Florida.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure system located along the South Carolina coast
about midway between Myrtle Beach and Charleston is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Tropical development of
this system is expected to be slow to occur tonight and Sunday due
to proximity to land as the disturbance moves northeastward along or
near the coast of the Carolinas. By early Monday, however, the low
is expected to move over the warmer Atlantic waters, where some
further organization could occur. The low is forecast to produce
heavy rainfall along with a threat of flash flooding in eastern
portions of South and North Carolina through Sunday. Please see
products from your local National Weather Service office or the
Weather Prediction Center's Excessive Rainfall Outlook for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[northjaxpro]

Latest update on the barometric pressure now down to 1012 mb. Pressure slowly falling.as it slowly moves northeast hugging and moving along the SC coast.

Invest 97L 's best opportunity to become a TD or possibly Chantal will likely be by Sunday night or early on Monday. That is when the system should be off the NC Coast and traverse over the warm Gulf Stream current in that vicinity.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2019081800, , BEST, 0, 333N, 795W, 25, 1013, LO

[hipshot]

Would be nice if this and the GoM system would both develop so my August post in the poll would be right.

What GOM system are you talking about?

N Gulf off Florida.

That's not 95L right?

[Hammy]

What GOM system are you talking about?

N Gulf off Florida.

That's not 95L right?

Hasn't been designated as anything yet.

[hipshot]

N Gulf off Florida.

That's not 95L right?

Hasn't been designated as anything yet.

OK, our NOAA weather service in Fort Worth mentioned something about a potential disturbance in the GOM but I didn't see anything on this website
so I thought I would ask.

[GCANE]

That's not 95L right?

Hasn't been designated as anything yet.

OK, our NOAA weather service in Fort Worth mentioned something about a potential disturbance in the GOM but I didn't see anything on this website
so I thought I would ask.

Its on this thread
viewtopic.php?f=31&p=2755094#p2755094

[Ubuntwo]

This thing has pretty strong vorticity. When it emerges off the OBX, it should be in a ribbon of low shear with ~28 degree SSTs. By far the biggest inhibiting factor seems to be dry air, with GFS forecasted RH around 50% for the western side of the system.