Continuing GOM Watch

[Aric Dunn]

[NDG]

Still slightly higher than 24 hrs ago.
Those strong winds are the thunderstorms downdrafts not from pressure gradient.

[Aric Dunn]

has dropped 1 mb in the last 30 min..

[NDG]

Now that's a pressure drop.

[Aric Dunn]

nearly down 2 mb in the last hour to 1014. the 2 surrounding reliable buoys on either side of 42039 are 1016 mb and are not falling...

[Aric Dunn]

Down 3 mb in the last hour and a half. A 3 mb lower than the background pressurs and the center is not going to pass over the buoy.

[NDG]

Down 3 mb in the last hour and a half. A 3 mb lower than the background pressurs and the center is not going to pass over the buoy.

That's 2 mb, not 3

2:50 PM 1013.55 mb
1:20 PM 1015.24 mb

[northjaxpro]

Aric, it is safe to say we have falling barometric pressure currently. Lol
I think you have established that pretty much the past few posts

.
BTW

IT calculates to about a 2 mb drop in pressure...

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, it is safe to say we have falling barometric pressure currently. Lol
I think you have established that pretty much the past few posts..

Lol hey sometimes you have too :p

[Dean4Storms]

It’s got more organization than that thing that was in the Bahamas.

[NDG]

If it wasn't for the NW shear this definitely would had been a TD before coming ashore tomorrow morning.

[northjaxpro]

It is slowly drifting northeast toward the coast currently. And I mean crawling.

I am beginning to see a bit more convection trying to fire near.the naked vort swirl, which ecplains the recent barometric pressure falls pointed out by Aric.

I will say that it seems that the system is trying its best to moisten the environment a bit around it. It is imptoved since earlier today when.it was stripped naked by.northerly shear and dry air hitting at it from the north.

Let' s see if the convective flare-ups try to continue to flare over the swirl as we head into the early evening.

[Aric Dunn]

It is slowly drifting northeast toward the coast currently. And I mean crawling.

I am beginning to see a bit more convection trying to fire near.the naked vort swirl, which ecplains the recent barometric pressure falls pointed out by Aric.

I will say that it seems that the system is trying its best to moisten the envitonment a bit around it. It is imptoved since earlier today when.it was stripped naked by.northerly shear and dry air hitting at it from the north.

Let' s see if the convective flare-ups try to continue to flare over the swirl as we head into the early evening.

It is super close.. convection just needs to organize a little more. Even with shear pulsed convection is enough.

There has actually been 2 small eastward reformations with the last two recent pulses.

[tropicwatch]

Radar picking up rotation of storms in the vicinity of 42039.

[Aric Dunn]

Deep convection building/re building and wrapping around. Its getting closer... already know its closed.

[tropicwatch]

There is a notable and distinct difference between the movement of showers associated with the frontal boundary and the circulation south of Panama City. The cutoff appears to be Tallahassee south into the gulf basically.

[Aric Dunn]

[northjaxpro]

The dry air seems to have been walled off for now as there has been a definite moistening of the area around the LLC since about mid-morning (the past 6-8 hours) based on radar and satellite imagery.

Convection appears to be pulsating to the south and east of the swirl early this evening.

NW shear still evident over the system,, but if it can keep firing convection through the evening, then I think an invest tag should be designated on it at the very least.

[Aric Dunn]

Western of the well defined llc is now exposed. It has definitely tightened up. low level curvature is a sure sign.

[Aric Dunn]

Well at least they put out a marine warning for it lol