Continuing GOM Watch

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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#81 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:19 pm

USTropics wrote:It's right on the edge of radar range so hard to tell what level it's at, but evident circulation building:
https://i.ibb.co/N20qb9g/Webp-net-gifmaker-1.gif


Thats what surface obs and earlier sat is for..
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#82 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:22 pm

Towers starting to wrap counter clockwise.
Updrafts are going to push out any shear and create an anticyclone.
850mb vort has strengthened considerably.

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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#83 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:22 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
USTropics wrote:It's right on the edge of radar range so hard to tell what level it's at, but evident circulation building:
https://i.ibb.co/N20qb9g/Webp-net-gifmaker-1.gif


Thats what surface obs and earlier sat is for..

There's sat, goes west is down but for some reason TT haven't updated at all. Here's a new image:
Image
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#84 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:27 pm

Let’s see if it can handle the onslaught of northerly shear it should be hit with tomorrow as the Texas death ridge over Northern Mexico strengthens and drifts north overnight. Looks like the GFS shows 40K+.

No surprise there is a decent area of vorticity tonight, the GFS shows this well and also shows it weakening tomorrow as it moves inland and gets hit with the shear.
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#85 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:28 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
USTropics wrote:It's right on the edge of radar range so hard to tell what level it's at, but evident circulation building:
https://i.ibb.co/N20qb9g/Webp-net-gifmaker-1.gif


Thats what surface obs and earlier sat is for..

There's sat, goes west is down but for some reason TT haven't updated at all. Here's a new image:
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/569541263594881045/612469536834322456/COD-GOES-East-subregional-E_Gulf_Coast.13.20190818.020656-overmap-glm_flash-bars.gif?width=1202&height=677[/quote

Nasa site has been perfectly updating all day
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#86 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:30 pm

gatorcane wrote:Let’s see if it can handle the onslaught of northerly shear it should be hit with tomorrow as the Texas death ridge over Northern Mexico strengthens over northern Mexico and drifts north overnight.

No surprise there is a decent area of vorticity tonight, the GFS shows this well and also shows it weakening tomorrow as it moves inland and gets hit with the shear.


Lol. Stop.. none of the models even remotely showed this extent of development let alone just some incraased vorticity..
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#87 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:41 pm

A lot of people are not going to be happy if they wake up to a tropical depression coming ashore without word from the NHC. Especially in Panama City but I'm not so sure it is going to come ashore that quickly.
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#88 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:43 pm

Starting to see radar indicated showers moving south on the west side of the circulation.
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#89 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:45 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:Starting to see radar indicated showers moving south on the west side of the circulation.


What do you mean starting?
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#90 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:49 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
panamatropicwatch wrote:Starting to see radar indicated showers moving south on the west side of the circulation.


What do you mean starting?

Should have said closer to the center of circulation.
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#91 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:50 pm

Radar velocities slowly increasing, up to at least 55 mph
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#92 Postby psyclone » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:53 pm

This is a very interesting, unexpected and rapid development...very impressive organization with nice banding. It very much fits the theme that we're getting to the time of the year that things find a way to go.
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#93 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:53 pm

Buoy 42039 reporting sustained 25kt winds for the past 30 minutes.
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#94 Postby Dylan » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:54 pm

Dry northerly shear is going to send this little critter through the wood chipper tomorrow.
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#95 Postby psyclone » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:55 pm

I agree on the shear but it sure is an interesting, even if likely transient, feature.
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#96 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:56 pm

There is always a few in the bunch lol..
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#97 Postby stormhunter7 » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:58 pm

It's fighting dry air on north side of coc per radar. Nice band on west side wrapping in. Definitely an invest, 65 miles SW of me!
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#98 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:01 pm

Not impossible we see a brief TC develop out of this. Reminds me of TS Emily in 2017 that formed quite literally out of nowhere in the GOMEX overnight.
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#99 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:04 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Not impossible we see a brief TC develop out of this. Reminds me of TS Emily in 2017 that formed quite literally out of nowhere in the GOMEX overnight.

Looking at radar velocities this could be a minimal tropical storm but if this moves inland there may be ground truth to at least a depression
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Re: N GOM Watch Part 2

#100 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:05 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Not impossible we see a brief TC develop out of this. Reminds me of TS Emily in 2017 that formed quite literally out of nowhere in the GOMEX overnight.



Same general set up too. Wouldn't surprise me.
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