Monsoonjr99 wrote:Seems a bit eerie how this wave looks to take a similar track to Harvey around the same exact dates.
The wave location may be similar, but the rest of the synoptic setup couldn't be more different
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plasticup
Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean
The wave location may be similar, but the rest of the synoptic setup couldn't be more different
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean
So 06Z GFS still says nada to this wave developing. You can tell it relies on that EPAC system though, which is why I'm still watching it. If the EPAC system ends up further west and faster, this one still has time to do something.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean
Euro says nope as well.
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stormlover2013
Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean
SoupBone wrote:Euro says nope as well.
I bet euro ensembles will show more support just watch
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean
stormlover2013 wrote:SoupBone wrote:Euro says nope as well.
I bet euro ensembles will show more support just watch
I'm starting to think two things happen:
1. The death ridge stays over Texas, and we get no rain out of whatever this system ends up doing.
2. It heads off toward the Louisiana/MS/AL coasts because of the trough.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean
SoupBone wrote:Euro says nope as well.
Still no big development but still shows a weak vortex to move towards upper TX/LA coast.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean
NDG wrote:SoupBone wrote:Euro says nope as well.
Still no big development but still shows a weak vortex to move towards upper TX/LA coast.
Well I hope this one doesn't end up biting us, because if conditions become more favorable, there isn't much time to do anything about it, and no one is really paying attention to it.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean
Another look at the latest 12z Euro, it will be too bad if TX gets much rains out if it where it is needed.
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TheProfessor
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean
The grounds are very saturated here in southeast La. Even a weak wave like what the European shows could be bad news for us.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean
TheProfessor wrote:The grounds are very saturated here in southeast La. Even a weak wave like what the European shows could be bad news for us.
And most of SE Texas is bone dry.
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stormlover2013
Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean
less euro ensembles on this run, so looks just like rain
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean
stormlover2013 wrote:less euro ensembles on this run, so looks just like rain
Wouldn't be a bad thing for Texas, but please not on the weekend!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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stormlover2013
Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean
Yep, less Euro ensemble support for development but keeps heaviest rains towards the LA Coast.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean
NDG wrote:Yep, less Euro ensemble support for development but keeps heaviest rains towards the LA Coast.
https://i.imgur.com/hIWVhC8.gif
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean
Wave axis is starting to blow up heading in the western carrib. Lets see what happens..
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean
Aric Dunn wrote:Wave axis is starting to blow up heading in the western carrib. Lets see what happens..
That is the shear from the Honduras low providing lift over the wave.
Don't see any rotation yet.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean
Nimbus wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Wave axis is starting to blow up heading in the western carrib. Lets see what happens..
That is the shear from the Honduras low providing lift over the wave.
Don't see any rotation yet.
Nope no rotation. Just the wave axis lighting up from the divergent flow around the upper low.
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
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stormlover2013
Re: Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean
Euro ensembles rise!!! Could get a trop storm out of this or depression
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean
Indeed more Euro ensembles now show possible weak development out of this disturbance.
0z Operational run.
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