2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Hurricaneman]

Not sure the implications but the Euro's been increasingly keen on surging the low-level westerlies at low latitudes over west Africa over the last several runs.

Basically means delayed development until farther west where it counts

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GEFS has a modest increase in genesis probability for very late month centered near the Bahamas to the west of an Atlantic high fwiw. These members are moving north at that point around the high into or near the SE US. All of this is very much in the just fwiw category. The main reason this is being mentioned is that the GEFS runs have been absent of significant activity. It still is a low threat at the worst right now.

After seeing the Tropical Tidbits GEFS maps, I can see more clearly why the members develop. They form north of the Bahamas ~8/28 to the SW of a big sfc high slowly moving offshore the NE US. In the homegrown category, this actually is a not uncommon occurrence climowise near the heart of the season and may need to be watched as the SSTs are boiling there.

1. 216 hour map: about half the members have a sfc low:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eus_37.png

2. 48 hours later(264 hours) shows a WSW average movement toward FL and some strengthening of those members:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eus_45.png

I'd put this in the low risk category for the US since it is pretty far out in time (last few days of August), but there could end up being something to this assuming the big NE US high verifies and persists for several days with only slow movement offshore.

[Hammy]

Euro continues showing that nothing is going to develop as long as the waves keep taking a WNW-NW track as they exit. It looks like we're in for a series of what would've otherwise been the series active burst all being shot over desert and into cooler waters.

[LarryWx]

The 18Z GEFS is similar to the 12Z GEFS with many active members off the SE coast very late this month fwiw. Will this look persist on later runs or is this going to end up being little or nothing? I think that homegrown/subtropics as opposed to MDR will be the place to find an August TC genesis if there is going to be one.

[SFLcane]

The 18Z GEFS is similar to the 12Z GEFS with many active members off the SE coast very late this month fwiw. Will this look persist on later runs or is this going to end up being little or nothing? I think that homegrown/subtropics as opposed to MDR will be the place to find an August TC genesis if there is going to be one.

Possibly for the remainder of the season plenty of development in the sub-tropics not affecting anyone.

[Hurricaneman]

The one thing the 12zEuro showed at the end of its run is a wave at 50w 14N and also a possible developing system off of Africa which would make sense since it has the sinking air dissipating and more closer to average humidity in the atmosphere so these may need to be watched as it won’t be entirely hostile especially the one it shows at 50w

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

A 'tropical cyclone' over Africa?

ECM:





ICON:

[GCANE]

IMHO, the wave rolling off Africa this Friday maybe the one to watch.
Setup looks good for a stroll across the MDR.

[GCANE]

GFS showing a spinup out of the ITCZ 11N 40W on Thu and trekking into the Carib Mon.

[shiny-pebble]

A 'tropical cyclone' over Africa?

ECM:





ICON:

Models usually show this when conditions become more favorable/waves become stronger right?

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[AutoPenalti]

Could also be land-induced, meaning once it touches water convection will wane and eventually disappear, doesn’t help that it’s too far north.

[LarryWx]

Although the 12Z GEFS is still another one with a very quiet MDR, it does have a fairly strong signal for a TC forming off the SE coast and then going up/near the coast from NC to the Canadian Maritimes in very early Sep. fwiw.

[Hammy]

The atmosphere is broken

[SoupBone]

The atmosphere is broken

https://cdn.gifmaker.net/9ae9e130-3501-4295-b182-331f53838953/default.gif

Look how far north that wave exits Africa! WTH

[Hurricaneman]

The atmosphere is broken

https://cdn.gifmaker.net/9ae9e130-3501-4295-b182-331f53838953/default.gif

Look how far north that wave exits Africa! WTH

The one at 240 is more like it, comes off south of the CV islands. Might have to watch that one if it continues to show up

[cycloneye]

At the end.

[toad strangler]

The atmosphere is broken

https://cdn.gifmaker.net/9ae9e130-3501-4295-b182-331f53838953/default.gif

Look how far north that wave exits Africa! WTH

That should put an end to SAL raining over the Sahara like that

[LarryWx]

I posted something similar in the W Caribbean wave thread. The 12Z Euro has what looks like weak TC genesis at hour 48 in the FL Straits. That weak surface low then moves very slowly north over S FL pen and then gets to just offshore the SE US below the big NE US surface high at hour 120 before then moving very slowly NE just offshore the US east coast while getting a bit stronger over the subsequent few days. Could be something sneaky to watch.

[Storm Battered]

The atmosphere is broken

https://cdn.gifmaker.net/9ae9e130-3501-4295-b182-331f53838953/default.gif

Look how far north that wave exits Africa! WTH

That's a Canary Island storm instead of a Cape Verde storm.

[SoupBone]

The atmosphere is broken

https://cdn.gifmaker.net/9ae9e130-3501-4295-b182-331f53838953/default.gif

Look how far north that wave exits Africa! WTH

That should put an end to SAL raining over the Sahara like that

I thought those northern systems actually kicked SAL into high gear?