ATL: CHANTAL - Remnants

[northjaxpro]

This is the best looking cyclone (Satellite Presentation that is) I have seen in the North Atlantic basin to this juncture this season.

[tolakram]

I think August has it's TS, but maybe post season.

Live visible
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=13010.4619140625&y=3130.337890625



Both the Euro and the GFS have this moving east and then southeast so it may be around for a little while.

[CrazyC83]

We'll see how long it survives, but I'm guessing the probabilities will rise dramatically at 2 pm. If it is still like this, I think we will have TS Chantal at 5 pm; if not, it's a post-season upgrade. Definitely looks like a tropical storm to me.

[galaxy401]

Wait....that looks like a healthy TS....I was never following this system because of the "10%" chance but....that thing looks like a TS.

[Monsoonjr99]

Reminds me of this all over again.

[CrazyC83]

1. A low pressure system is located almost 400 miles southeast of
Halifax, Nova Scotia. While the associated thunderstorm activity
shows signs of organization, recent satellite wind data indicates
the system does not currently have a well-defined circulation.
Significant development of this low is unlikely as it moves eastward
at 15 to 20 mph across the open north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Haven't seen the wind data.

[CyclonicFury]

Looks better than TD 3 ever did.

I find it interesting that the circulation appeared well-defined in last night's ASCAT pass, but is no longer well-defined. Perhaps a center relocation may be occurring as Philippe Papin notes?
 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1163857420835147776

[wxman57]

Looks like it peaked in organization earlier this morning. Fading now. No upgrade.

[CyclonicFury]

Convection has actually persisted into the afternoon diurnal minimum. If ASCAT finds a well-defined circulation this is a TC.

[Sciencerocks]

This is probably a tropical storm. Just in my opinion...I wouldn't totally trust the ascat with a quick moving system to show a closed LLC even when it probably has one.

[Sciencerocks]

Now this is a nice LLC!

[cycloneye]

Chantal?

A small low pressure system is located more than 400 miles
southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Associated thunderstorm activity
continues to shows signs of organization, and recent satellite data
indicate that the circulation has become a little better defined.
Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, any
further development of this low could result in the formation of a
tropical cyclone while it moves eastward at 15 to 20 mph across the
open north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Hammy]

Just pull the trigger already, this has been a tropical storm for at least the last 24 hours.

[northjaxpro]

Just pull the trigger already, this has been a tropical storm for at least the last 24 hours.

Amen Hammy!!

[CyclonicFury]

Looks like a TC to me. So much for an August with no Atlantic TCs...

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 04, 2019082100, , BEST, 0, 401N, 574W, 35, 1010, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 40, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012, TRANSITIONED, alA72019 to al042019,

[DioBrando]

Best track seems to have TS Chantal
AL, 04, 2019082100, , BEST, 0, 401N, 574W, 35, 1010, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 40, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012, TRANSITIONED, alA72019 to al042019,
al042019 = Chantal

LOOK EVERYONE
THE AUGUST DROUGHT IS ALMOST UP... BUT WILL IT BE NAMED?

[Nancy Smar]

1. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the small low pressure
area located more than 450 miles southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia,
has acquired a well-defined circulation and is producing tropical-
storm-force winds. As a result, advisories on Tropical Storm
Chantal will be initiated at 11 PM AST (0300 UTC). This system is
moving eastward at 15 to 20 mph across the open north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[DioBrando]

THE DREAMS OF HAVING A NAME FREE-AUGUST HAVE BEEN CRUSHED!
PLEASE WELCOME ONTO THE STAGE, CHANTAL!

"I walk this empty street
On the boulevard of broken dreams"

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like 2014 will keep the record for the latest 3rd named storm.