Is not only the North Atlantic that is slow / Global Northern Hemisphere is below normal

[Hammy]

1977 was very quiet across all basins. The Southern Hemisphere was about average in number of storms forming.

1976-1977 was El Nino and had came off of an El Nino. Then El Nino came back for 1977-1978. They were weak El Nino's in both cases.

That would explain the North Atlantic, but not the East and West Pacific. Monsoon was possibly weak that time in the West Pacific.

A theory of my own still holds that the second-year weak El Nino tends to suppress tropical cyclone development in the Pacific rather than enhance it.

From the beginning this season has had a very 2002 feel to it (another weak Nino if I recall) and checking Wikipedia it looks like the E Pacific had a fairly lengthy quiet period during late July and most of August--this in addition to the Atlantic having a fairly late start to the activity bursting, with very little being of tropical origin.

Interestingly we had a nearly identical setup to Bertha and Cristobal with the latest batch of frontal-induced low pressures, except occurring a bit too far north and west, too close to land.

[galaxy401]

Atlantic seems to have a dry air problem while the Pacific has a shear problem. I'm sure it's the result of a lot of different weather setups that are all happening.

Here in Arizona, it literally has been a rain-free monsoon. We had no rain for around two weeks now. Maybe it's all connected.

[Ptarmigan]

1977 was very quiet across all basins. The Southern Hemisphere was about average in number of storms forming.

1976-1977 was El Nino and had came off of an El Nino. Then El Nino came back for 1977-1978. They were weak El Nino's in both cases.

That would explain the North Atlantic, but not the East and West Pacific. Monsoon was possibly weak that time in the West Pacific.

A theory of my own still holds that the second-year weak El Nino tends to suppress tropical cyclone development in the Pacific rather than enhance it.

Interesting. I wonder why that happens.

[dexterlabio]

Interesting. I wonder why that happens.

I know the sample size is very small for double-swing weak El Nino events but this year is shaping up just like 1969 and 1977.

The only thing we are aware of that suppresses tropical activity in WPAC and EPAC is a La Nina/cold ENSO event, which is certainly not present this year. Thus I couldn't help but think that my little theory has some basis. I believe the only hope lies in the Atlantic if it can help the entire NHem catch up with the inactivity.

[euro6208]

Interestingly 1977 in the WPAC is one of 3 seasons...since the satellite era began in 1960...along with 1974 and 2017 to not feature a single Category 5.

2019 already with 1...another could be upgraded postseason.

[al78]

This seems to be representitive of northern hemisphere tropical cyclones this year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVyQrQ1aIr4