Disturbed Weather in North-NorthWestern GOM (Is Invest 90L)
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stormlover2013
Re: Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean
I still think we could have a weak trop storm around upper tx and SW La coast friday
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Hurricaneman
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatán Penninsula
This seems to be taking shape right on the Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico border
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatán Penninsula
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatán Penninsula
Well that is still the upper low moving with the wave.
But the cinvection on the nw side of the yucatan should benefit from the vorticity imparted by the low and enhabced convection.
All this is a little ahead of the models. The 18z euro shifted east with the track so will see what that changes.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatán Penninsula
There is low level broad turning on the Nw side of yucatan. Will be interesting to see what happens. Its faster and farther north than models..
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatán Penninsula
central LA.stormlover2013 wrote:How Far East ?
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stormlover2013
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TheProfessor
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatán Penninsula
stormlover2013 wrote:Interesting, so no rain for Texas ??
18z Euro had about half an inch of rain or more for extreme southeast Texas through hour 90. Houston is right on the edge of that.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatán Penninsula
stormlover2013 wrote:Interesting, so no rain for Texas ??
Not a lot if that verifies.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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TheProfessor
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatán Penninsula
0z Euro is a bit west with the vorticity as well as with the rain.
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An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatán Penninsula
MCS now in the channel.
Been firing all morning in light shear.
Don't see any vort structure to this yet, but keeping an eye on it.
Been firing all morning in light shear.
Don't see any vort structure to this yet, but keeping an eye on it.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatán Penninsula
Cut off low to the S.W. is aiding upper level flow. There's probably some level of weak vorticity within but I agree that there's no indication of turning that I can see yet either. Let's see if the bursting persists. The disturbance is certainly in this year's general sweet spot for potential development and could be a candidate for a tiny quick spin-up. On the other hand, this could just as easily be transitory as well - Over all, i'd guess pretty low odds for development for the moment.
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Andy D
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatán Penninsula
Very low shear right now in the GoM, and this thing still looks like just a broad wave of moisture.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatán Penninsula
Area off the Nw tip of the Yucatan is the area to watch.
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche
The 12z surface analysis has it now in the Bay of Campeche.
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HurricaneEnzo
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Re: Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche
Agree with most people on the low development odds but I will never count out some BOC magic with low shear and warm waters. Regardless likely to be a rainmaker for some along the Gulf Coast.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatán Penninsula
Aric Dunn wrote:Area off the Nw tip of the Yucatan is the area to watch.
I see where you're talking about, and isn't that quite a bit north and east of where it should be?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche
The southern lobe of the wave axis is also showing some curvature and inflow.
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
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