Area in the Bahamas: Is Invest 98L

[boca]

Actually I believe that’s the Caribbean system, this system is near the Florida east coast

no you can follow it. the carrib wave is already in western gulf by then.


nothing come from it.

I see it now, I do believe that this is as far west this can go with that setup, expecting it to not quite make it that far west

How far west do you think this will go?

[Hurricaneman]

no you can follow it. the carrib wave is already in western gulf by then.


nothing come from it.

I see it now, I do believe that this is as far west this can go with that setup, expecting it to not quite make it that far west

How far west do you think this will go?

It seems to split in 2 pieces the one in the central GOM and an area east of Florida so looking at things my thought is just off the Florida east coast kind of drifting around before a trough in about 8 days picks it up and brushes by the Carolinas on its way to Nova Scotia but as always this could and probably will change

[floridasun78]

miami weather office do talk about tropical wave coming by friday https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

[Nimbus]

There was a vortex visible just east of Andros island at sunset, but I haven't checked the buoys for surface pressure.

[northjaxpro]

There was a vortex visible just east of Andros island at sunset, but I haven't checked the buoys for surface pressure.

Pressures are in the 1015 -1016 range currently, but with the redevelopment of deep convection in the area near and north of the coast of Cuba, into the Central Bahamas late today into this evening, I am expecting pressures to gradually fall off .

I agree the NHC should tag this as an invest shortly as there is sufficient model support now.

[Aric Dunn]

18z Euro. 51 hours.

then slow development over 90hrs. but spends time over florida. has the vorticity increasing a lot in the next 24 hours.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET with weak development in SE GOM:

[northjaxpro]

OK. So now the UKMET is now on board with the EURO and GFS for development. The Big 3 all have it now.

Should see this declared an invest by tomorrow.

[gatorcane]

Convection is sheared but seems to be persisting. I agree maybe an invest should be declared. This system kindaof fell of the radar but bears watching:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[psyclone]

Proximity, the calendar and a lack of much else has me intrigued with this. convection has been rather tenacious.

[floridasun78]

it may takes days to get invest nhc not in hurry to put invest in area their need few days models runs

[toad strangler]

it may takes days to get invest nhc not in hurry to put invest in area their need few days models runs

The NHC doesn’t hug models like that my friend.

[floridasun78]

here pic of bahamas radar coming down good southern bahamas http://smartmet.bahamasweather.org.bs/radarcomposite/

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS seems to show a wave split where the southern part goes into the GOM while the northern part meanders east of Florida, this may be a very complicated system and could be a problem for someone along the east coast from Florida to Nova Scotia so this needs to be watched

[USTropics]

The vorticity from this area can be tracked moving over Fl and then up the east coast on the 00z ECMWF operational, strengthening into a hurricane as it moves north (similar genesis as Chantal):

[USTropics]

00z UKMET on board with development:

[GCANE]

A small 850mb vort is starting to show up on the north shore of Cuba

[GCANE]

700mb vort is well defined

[GCANE]

Shear clears out in about 36 hrs.

[Aric Dunn]

Model support keeps increasing