ATL: ERIN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Making the thread as already NHC has the TCPOD of recon for this area of interest so post away.

Thread at Talking Tropics forum for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120426

[LarryWx]

Model runs in general suggest to me that the E NC to eastern New England to Maritimes corridor may be at the highest risk of a landfall if it becomes a TC and if there ends up being a landfall. However, it will be near FL and the SE for a few days before those areas further NE could be affected. So, FL/SE coast still needs to monitor in case it develops quickly since it will likely be close-by for a few days.

[OuterBanker]

JB states his concern.
Link is you tube, not his pay site.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... 3IvoGygzoQ

[stauglocal]

Could be a good wave maker for the east coast. We definitely need it, Florida has had the flattest summer in years.

[Hurricaneman]

Model runs in general suggest to me that the E NC to eastern New England to Maritimes corridor may be at the highest risk of a landfall if it becomes a TC and if there ends up being a landfall. However, it will be near FL and the SE for a few days before those areas further NE could be affected. So, FL/SE coast still needs to monitor in case it develops quickly since it will likely be close-by for a few days.

I feel this could track like many notable eastern seaboard hurricanes like

Belle 1976
Carol 1954
Bob 1991
1869 Saxby gale

So those in North Carolina, and New York, and southern New England and Nova Scotia should keep tabs on this system

Also Florida should keep an eye out in case of quicker development than anticipated

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1164201621586362369

[OuterBanker]

Could be a good wave maker for the east coast. We definitely need it, Florida has had the flattest summer in years.

Lol, yes I know what you're saying.

The East Coast Surfing Championship is occurring now in Virginia Beach.

One foot surf

[Kazmit]

Could be a good wave maker for the east coast. We definitely need it, Florida has had the flattest summer in years.

Same here in Bermuda. I haven’t had a good session since the winter.

[Kazmit]

Could this and Chantal be signs of the Atlantic awakening from its slumber?

[boca]

To me it looks like the vorticity is moving NE in the Southern Bahamas.

[GCANE]

Small UL Trough has developed to the west of the MCS, creating UL Outflow generally to the NE.
Convection beginning to fire in the UL Trough which should knock it out and enhance outflow in all directions.

[alienstorm]

Seems to be better develop at 700MB vs. 850MB

It will take at least 24 - 48 hrs to get going.

[SFLcane]

To me it looks like the vorticity is moving NE in the Southern Bahamas.

Yep a few scattered showers currently in the forecast as this disturbance moves away. Could have a good shot at developing as the warm waters this year are displaced northward. Hopefully just some rougher surf for the SE.

[AtlanticWind]

To me it looks like the vorticity is moving NE in the Southern Bahamas.

Yep a few scattered showers currently in the forecast as this disturbance moves away. Could have a good shot at developing as the warm waters this year are displaced northward. Hopefully just some rougher surf for the SE.

This system is forecast to move toward South and central florida , but hopefully will not develop

[Aric Dunn]

Has a good shot of developing in the next 48 to 72 hours as it meanders around. It will ultimately depend on a number of factors.

[Aric Dunn]

Flow is turning north to south ... se of andros.

[gatorcane]

This system has the “look” it is going to develop. I would raise development chances. The Atlantic is indeed waking up.

[psyclone]

Tough to imagine much if anything happening here as we have already been assured there will be no storms for August and perhaps the remainder of the season...tongue in cheek alert...Things are indeed slowly waking from a long slumber. pretty much right on schedule or perhaps a tad late

[SFLcane]

This system has the “look” it is going to develop. I would raise development chances. The Atlantic is indeed waking up.

Don't let IR satellite images fool you this thing is very disorganized and most models if not all do not develop until north of Florida and on its way out to sea.

[alienstorm]

Looking at visible satellite pictures looks like the potential LLC is forming south of Exuma