ATL: ERIN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Wonder when it will be officially designated.

[cycloneye]

Wonder when it will be officially designated.

NHC has the TCPOD for this area to be investigated so is a matter of time that the proper invest with the images and best tracks be up.

[SFLcane]

Next per Mr. derek..

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1164243326725496832

[cycloneye]

We will return to the Talking Tropics thread for this area until is oficial the invest designation as I admit to jump too fast after seeing the TCPOD.Until further notice, this one ,the models and recon threads will be locked.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1164609418421518337

[cycloneye]

[Aric Dunn]

Convection building over the circ now over andros. Westerly inflow and overall definition of the circ is increasing.

[jconsor]

Even a tropical storm that stays offshore could generate coastal flooding along the NE US coast given the strong high to the north.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1164610507246133250

[GCANE]

Definitely looks like it'll pop right over Andros
Should move SW as it hits the water.
Just cant't see this taking a sharp right and skim the east FL coast.

[cycloneye]

Here is the best track from test to first 98L one.

AL, 98, 2019082106, , BEST, 0, 249N, 783W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2019082118, , BEST, 0, 228N, 760W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2019082200, , BEST, 0, 234N, 767W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2019082206, , BEST, 0, 239N, 773W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2019082212, , BEST, 0, 244N, 778W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2019082218, , BEST, 0, 249N, 783W, 15, 9999, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 10000, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014, SPAWNINVEST, al762019 to al982019,

[TheStormExpert]

https://i.imgur.com/VKMou4x.jpg

It has the “look” of a developing future TC. No wonder the 12z Euro jumped back on board.

[NDG]

The COC has not moved at all since this morning, the surface LLC is becoming more defined this afternoon though still weak but growing in size.

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely looks like it'll pop right over Andros
Should move SW as it hits the water.
Just cant't see this taking a sharp right and skim the east FL coast.

Im not home. But if someone wants to compare the current analyzed placement of the uppper low over south georiga and where the euro has it. That is important as to track. Because as of right now the winds are west to east across the region. To get this to become lopsided with convection all to ne will take that upper low to drop south.. its current postion will not be enough to cause the necessary flow to counter the low to mid level steering and elongate this out.

And right nOw from sat loops that upper low is moving ne not south.

[GCANE]

Afternoon popups firing off over the Glads up to Lake O.
Debris will all drift into the dry slot at 98L's west.
Could see some development tonight from this.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Definitely has 'the look' of something that wants to develop. Not based on anything other than years of watching storms. Euro is back on board I think we will get a named system out of this. Potential rain maker for my neck of the woods (Eastern NC)

[gatorcane]

https://i.imgur.com/VKMou4x.jpg

It has the “look” of a developing future TC. No wonder the 12z Euro jumped back on board.

And look how we go from one run without much to the next with something significant. This system had the look yesterday. Dev chances should be increasing.

[Kingarabian]

UKMET has been showing this developing as it goes OTS for the past 2 runs.

[Nimbus]

Convection starting to fill in but I still don't have any surface pressure readings.
Is high pressure starting to build in over this area?

[GCANE]

Definitely looks like it'll pop right over Andros
Should move SW as it hits the water.
Just cant't see this taking a sharp right and skim the east FL coast.

Im not home. But if someone wants to compare the current analyzed placement of the uppper low over south georiga and where the euro has it. That is important as to track. Because as of right now the winds are west to east across the region. To get this to become lopsided with convection all to ne will take that upper low to drop south.. its current postion will not be enough to cause the necessary flow to counter the low to mid level steering and elongate this out.

And right nOw from sat loops that upper low is moving ne not south.

Don't have enough money to pay for the see-all Euro. However, can track the ULL over GA this way. Here's its current position.

[Aric Dunn]

The circ is finally passes andros. Looks like it is starting to move wsw st the moment.