Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands

[cycloneye]

Another strong wave is about to emerge Africa with a decent plume of convection and a spin. The old rule will be applied and that is what happens when it hits the water.This one has less Saharan air Layer in the nearby so that is good.Models are not too bullish but we will see what occurs down the road as the peak of the season is almost here.

[AutoPenalti]

Was this the wave that was depicted by the Euro that it would shoot up North?

[HurricaneEnzo]

At the very least it should knock out the last little bit of that SAL for other waves to take advantage of. Just shows how quickly things can change I believe just last week the level of SAL resembled mid-July.

[cycloneye]

Wave is introduced on the 12z surface analysis still inside West Africa but almost on the coast.

[Siker]

Was this the wave that was depicted by the Euro that it would shoot up North?

This is a different wave. Euro has shown it staying disheveled and far north (but westward) before gradually organizing near the end of its runs. May be something to watch when it gets north of the islands in 10 days.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS seems to develop this near Bermuda

[SoupBone]

At the very least it should knock out the last little bit of that SAL for other waves to take advantage of. Just shows how quickly things can change I believe just last week the level of SAL resembled mid-July.

Look at the SAL 5 day loop, he's far from dying. It looks like another push of him south, maybe not as potent as last week, but still formidable.

[cycloneye]

Is not still clear if what GFS has developing near Bermuda and moves WSW as a strong Hurricane is this wave but we will find out very soon as members like USTropics and others can find out.

[Siker]

Yes, it’s from this wave. You can track the mid level vorticity at 700mb as it exits Africa, heads NW to near Bermuda, and merges with a piece of energy from the trough that’s ahead of 98L. Neat and unlikely scenario.

[cycloneye]

Yes, it’s from this wave. You can track the mid level vorticity at 700mb as it exits Africa, heads NW to near Bermuda, and merges with a piece of energy from the trough that’s ahead of 98L. Neat and unlikely scenario.

Wow,very interesting if it happens.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD.

A tropical wave near the West coast of Africa is along 15W S of
18N, moving W at around 15 kt. Wave model guidance depicts the
formation of this wave in the area. Abundant moisture is noted
in the latest TPW with a broad area of convection associated along
the vicinity of the wave. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from 06N-10N between 12W-21W including inland
areas of Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau and Senegal.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro has this wave moving not too fast and it ends just east of Leewards.

[cycloneye]

IMO,the best wave to emerge Africa in 2019 so far.

[cycloneye]

I will say this about the models and that is they have been pathetic in 2019 being with different scenarios each model and because this wave so far has not been picked strongly by the models and because of the 2019 debacle among them,this wave has to be watched given it's almost late August and climo is a big factor.

[AtlanticWind]

IMO,the best wave to emerge Africa in 2019 so far.

https://i.imgur.com/M9hC5vb.gif

Agree, I also think this has the best devolpment chances
we have this year for a CV wave.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS is living up to its nickname of give Florida something with this system with a cat 3 hurricane landfall in Daytona in 15 days but as we all know it could and probably will change

[jaxfladude]

The 12zGFS is living up to its nickname of give Florida something with this system with a cat 3 hurricane landfall in Daytona in 15 days but as we all know it could and probably will change

One of these times it will verify in the old adage-'A broken clock is right twice a day' hopefully not in my or anyones lifetime in regards to a major cane direct hit . If by chance/when it does verify(now or future) it's a weak/joke of a used name system...

Sent from my android using Tapatalk

[abajan]

At the very least it should knock out the last little bit of that SAL for other waves to take advantage of. Just shows how quickly things can change I believe just last week the level of SAL resembled mid-July.

Yep. Same thing with shear. Wasn't it just a week or so ago when 40 to 50 knots of shear was screaming across the Lesser Antilles? Now there's hardly any to speak of.

[abajan]

IMO,the best wave to emerge Africa in 2019 so far.

https://i.imgur.com/M9hC5vb.gif

Even if it doesn't develop, it may be portentous of the remainder of the season. We shall see.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave near the West coast of Africa is along 17W S of
19N, moving W at around 15 kt. Abundant moisture is noted in the
latest TPW with a broad area of convection associated along the
vicinity of the wave. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from 07N-17N between 13W-23W. Areas from
Liberia northward into southern Mauritania are also experiencing
numerous moderate to strong convection