Disturbed Weather in North-NorthWestern GOM (Is Invest 90L)

[cycloneye]

Merged your thread to this one .

[GCANE]

Starting to look good.
LL vorts improving.
Continued convection for this time of day with good lightning activity.

[SoupBone]

Ok, I see some clear rotation to the NE of the tip of the Yucatan. Is that low level? Where is the "center" supposed to be?

[TheProfessor]

12z EPS seems to have an uptick in tropical depression formation just south of Louisiana. Either way looks like a heavy rain event for the northern Gulf.

[Agua]

Ok, I see some clear rotation to the NE of the tip of the Yucatan. Is that low level? Where is the "center" supposed to be?

I noticed that as well, but I think the circulation everyone is looking at is in the SW corner of the BoC. [edit - now that I'm looking at it again an hour or so later, that looks like mid level circ]

[TheProfessor]

Ok, I see some clear rotation to the NE of the tip of the Yucatan. Is that low level? Where is the "center" supposed to be?

I noticed that as well, but I think the circulation everyone is looking at is in the SW corner of the BoC. [edit - now that I'm looking at it again an hour or so later, that looks like mid level circ]

Yeah, the southern BoC is where the greatest vorticity is currently at.

[Aric Dunn]

Ok, I see some clear rotation to the NE of the tip of the Yucatan. Is that low level? Where is the "center" supposed to be?

I noticed that as well, but I think the circulation everyone is looking at is in the SW corner of the BoC. [edit - now that I'm looking at it again an hour or so later, that looks like mid level circ]

I am looking right between the two area. nothing but a shart wave axis right now. but given the surge coming in from the east and the tilt to the axis this area will slowly gain higher vorticity.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

How do I post posts?

[BigB0882]

I am looking right between the two area. nothing but a shart wave axis right now. but given the surge coming in from the east and the tilt to the axis this area will slowly gain higher vorticity.

You said shart. Lol. I’m going to be that immature for a minute.

I know SE LA doesn’t need the rain but we are building a new house and they put in landscape and haven’t been able to turn on the electricity to run the irrigation system so I’m thankful for every day of rain.

[Nimbus]

Upper level low circulation is easy to spot in the water vapor imagery.
Convection moving off the coast of the Yucatan out into the Bay of Campeche.
Once the upper level circulation lifts out it will be interesting to see what and where any low level development takes place.

[Monsoonjr99]

This reminds me of 91L from this June. Also seems CAG-ish (odd for August) being somewhat related to the system that spawned Ivo. Since BoC magic clearly didn't work on 91L and now this disturbance has Ivo to contend with, I'm not so keen on development here. Rotation on satellite looks more mid-upper level and models haven't shown much support. Also the kicker is that the NHC has no mention of this on the TWO.

Of course, the tropics have a history of surprises, so perhaps I shouldn't completely write this off.

[Nederlander]

Low shear, warm ssts... what am I missing?

[TexWx]

Low shear, warm ssts... what am I missing?

Right?

[TheProfessor]

I think the biggest thing keeping the Euro from developing this storm further is the fact that there is land interaction on most runs. If it could find itself over water longer than modeled, then perhaps it could become something.

[TheProfessor]

0z Euro drops 5-10" of rain on New Orleans and South Shore. The Euro has been pretty consistent with dropping a lot of rain somewhere with this system. If only we could push that into Texas.

[GCANE]

This looked promising yesterday, not this morning however.
All lower-level vorts have diminished.
Only thing left is an ULL.

[southerngale]

0z Euro drops 5-10" of rain on New Orleans and South Shore. The Euro has been pretty consistent with dropping a lot of rain somewhere with this system. If only we could push that into Texas.

Why? We get so much rain, it's impossible to mow. Every single day off, or evening available to mow, it's too wet. A week, or even several days with no rain would be amazing. And of course, the rain chances for the next several days are fairly high. It will rain, undoubtedly.

[southerngale]

I just looked at the Drought Monitor. It seems quite a bit of Texas is abnormally dry, or worse, while other areas, like mine, have gotten too much rain, or enough. I wish I could share it.

[NDG]

This area still needs to be monitored as it heads north, about 15-20% of Euro ensembles still develop this into a weak system, but the threat for heavy rains still remains for southern LA.

[Portastorm]

I just looked at the Drought Monitor. It seems quite a bit of Texas is abnormally dry, or worse, while other areas, like mine, have gotten too much rain, or enough. I wish I could share it.

I think you’re the only area of the state getting much rain. Here in south central Texas we’re burning up under a relentless Death Ridge of High Pressure. No rain here for over a month. We’d warmly welcome any tropical disturbance coming our way.