Disturbed Weather in North-NorthWestern GOM (Is Invest 90L)

[Nederlander]

I just looked at the Drought Monitor. It seems quite a bit of Texas is abnormally dry, or worse, while other areas, like mine, have gotten too much rain, or enough. I wish I could share it.

It’s all spotty too though. I’m just south of you in Nederland and we have missed out on some of the recent afternoon showers. I work in Beaumont, however, and it seems to get a good shot every day. At my house it’s pretty dry. Still ok though compared to our neighbors out to the west. They could really use some good tropical moisture.

[Steve]

Has some fairly decent upper support, but there isn't much there. We should see some continued turning as it approaches the coast as probably a surge of tropical moisture with a broad (possibly low level) circulation.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

[Steve]

12km NAM shows the heaviest rains (10"+) are in the Golden Triangle through 84 hours (through 7pm Sunday)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2212&fh=84

[SoupBone]

12km NAM shows the heaviest rains (10"+) are in the Golden Triangle through 84 hours (through 7pm Sunday)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2212&fh=84

What does South East Asia have to do with this system?

[TexWx]

Has some fairly decent upper support, but there isn't much there. We should see some continued turning as it approaches the coast as probably a surge of tropical moisture with a broad (possibly low level) circulation.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

Looks like some much needed moisture headed towards Texas.

[Steve]

12km NAM shows the heaviest rains (10"+) are in the Golden Triangle through 84 hours (through 7pm Sunday)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2212&fh=84

What does South East Asia have to do with this system?

LOL. Not that Golden Triangle

[SoupBone]

12km NAM shows the heaviest rains (10"+) are in the Golden Triangle through 84 hours (through 7pm Sunday)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2212&fh=84

What does South East Asia have to do with this system?

LOL. Not that Golden Triangle

It would definitely dump a good bit of rain over Beaumont. Looks like Houston would be on the fringe of it, with some decent rain.

[TexWx]

Has some fairly decent upper support, but there isn't much there. We should see some continued turning as it approaches the coast as probably a surge of tropical moisture with a broad (possibly low level) circulation.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

Looks like some much needed moisture headed towards Texas.

I keep looking at that satellite. What are the pressures looking like out there? It just looks like it wants to spin up.

[Frank P]

GOM feature sure looks a little better this afternoon with a subtle circulation in works, could be in the mid levels and trying to work down to the surface... definitely has grown in overall size as well...

[SoupBone]

I don't know Frank, it still looks like a blob of crap out there. But it definitely looks like Texas will see some rain since it's spread out so far across the GoM.

[jasons2k]

I haven't had rain for three weeks. I just want a little rain. I hope it doesn't all go east of here.

[Nimbus]

The shear is producing lots of showers I didn't see any circulation just T storms moving north with the shear. No sharp dips in surface pressure at this buoy off Brownsville but the winds are picking up.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EDT

[tropicwatch]

Not much wind shear in the upper levels or midlevel. Conditions look pretty good out there.
Upper Level Wind Shear
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

Mid Level Windshear
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=midshr&zoom=&time=

[SoupBone]

Anyone see anything interesting with this? It's starting to run out of time if it's going to do anything.

[jasons2k]

Anyone see anything interesting with this? It's starting to run out of time if it's going to do anything.

Just an open wave. All the low-level cumulus clouds are marching NW from the Yucatan all the way into Texas. Something would have to change dramatically and I just don't see it.

[lrak]

Looked at the satellite without the loop and freaked out...lol That's a big EYE

[Steve]

Anyone see anything interesting with this? It's starting to run out of time if it's going to do anything.

Not much. Nam 18z backed off a bit and shows the showers collapsing before refiring a couple times. We had a nice band move through and then we have another on the way if it doesn’t die off with sunset. Think it will be on again off again rain this weekend which may continue to take some heat out of the N Gulf waters hopefully.
https://www.weather.gov/lix/

[wxman57]

It caught my eye, too, so I plotted a surface map with satellite. Nothing at the surface. Should be moving inland tomorrow. Hoping SOME of the rain makes it as far west as Houston.

[captainbarbossa19]

It caught my eye, too, so I plotted a surface map with satellite. Nothing at the surface. Should be moving inland tomorrow. Hoping SOME of the rain makes it as far west as Houston.

http://wxman57.com/images/GoM.JPG

I wish I could share some rain with you! It has been raining at my location almost every day since this past Thursday. The ground is very wet now and I cannot even mow grass. About three weeks ago, it was bone dry. Hopefully a lot of it will miss me and hit your location.

[lrak]

Everyone always talks about the mid level working down to the surface....never seen it happen. But the latest IR satellite shows some red cloud tops around the old mid level circulation. Are those just outflow boundaries? Or a low pressure area? The activity should be decreasing by now yet it's bubbling up.