ATL: ERIN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

This has the look of a future hurricane and fo those in Florida expect squally weather but North Carolina May have a low end hurricane on their hands and the New York/New England area need to stay vigilant as any small change in the steering could send it in that direction

[northjaxpro]

This is setting up to be a potential major event all up and along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard for the next several days a into next week. Interesting times ahead.

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely looks like it'll pop right over Andros
Should move SW as it hits the water.
Just cant't see this taking a sharp right and skim the east FL coast.

Im not home. But if someone wants to compare the current analyzed placement of the uppper low over south georiga and where the euro has it. That is important as to track. Because as of right now the winds are west to east across the region. To get this to become lopsided with convection all to ne will take that upper low to drop south.. its current postion will not be enough to cause the necessary flow to counter the low to mid level steering and elongate this out.

And right nOw from sat loops that upper low is moving ne not south.

Don't have enough money to pay for the see-all Euro. However, can track the ULL over GA this way. Here's its current position.

https://i.imgur.com/DSHrnYn.png

So euro has it over NE florida in 12 hours. That is what thrusts this NE all of a sudden.

Looks at waver vapor its moving NE. So unles it starts moving se this will continue west.

[GCANE]

Spinning up over Andros

[jlauderdal]

Wonder when it will be officially designated.

When is stacy stewart on shift?

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[northjaxpro]

Yep. Pretty evident there the developing LLC.

[Aric Dunn]

Wonder when it will be officially designated.

When is stacy stewart on shift?

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Hopefully by morning shift lol

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yep Andros circ is the winner. Continuing the convection is key and those storms off SW FL will help the western edge of the moisture envelope.

[Hurricaneman]

If thing keep organizing then if the convection persists then I wouldn’t be surprised if we have a depression sometime tomorrow but the thing that will limit strengthening the next day or so will be some fringe shear from the ULL but that shouldn’t be an issue past 24hrs

[alienstorm]

Right over Andros Island

[alienstorm]

 https://twitter.com/i/status/1164623354722213888

[Weatherboy1]

Clearly has the look of one of those "displaced convection to the NE" lows. Agree with "just off Andros" center location. Unless/until shear eases up, don't think this amounts to much. But worth watching here in South FL ...

[Aric Dunn]

i say 50 in the next 48s from the nhc at 8... should be higher.. and shear is dropping by the hour..

low level structure and wind firld is quickly organizing despite the shear and dry air.. its now moving into the gulfstream as well.

personally, 70 percent in the next 48hours is reasonable


oddly enough we actually have some slight easterly shear taking over when it supposed to be southwesterly.

[TheStormExpert]

Definitely been breezy here in NE Palm Beach County today thanks to 98L. It's actually felt quite pleasant in a way.

[tiger_deF]

[ronjon]

Still badly sheared by west to east 200 mb flow. Low level circulation appears to be outracing the convection being sheared off to the east.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[Aric Dunn]

Still badly sheared by west to east 200 mb flow. Low level circulation appears to be outracing the convection being sheared off to the east.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

westerly shear is at the 300mb layer and there is actually easterly shear just above that. lol though the westerly shear is not bad and weakening presently. .. its mostly the pocket of dry air that is causing the lack of convection.

[TheStormExpert]

The wider view.

[ronjon]

Broad low level circulation - currently devoid of any convection appears to be located at the western tip of Andros Island.

[MGC]

Looks like 98L is slowly becoming better organized this afternoon. I'd speculate that odds of development are increasing. Would not be surprised if 98L eventually becomes a TC.....MGC