ATL: ERIN - Models

[cycloneye]

Model runs only here.

[jconsor]

UKMET has this developing just off the central FL coast on Sun night, and then intensifies quickly into a hurricane just south of Cape Hatteras by Tue.

(The pressure suggests a hurricane; the winds shown in UKMET bulletins are often too low for the pressure).

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 29.4N 79.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.08.2019 108 29.4N 79.5W 1007 29
1200UTC 26.08.2019 120 31.3N 78.9W 1003 35
0000UTC 27.08.2019 132 33.1N 77.4W 996 44
1200UTC 27.08.2019 144 35.0N 75.5W 984 56

[cycloneye]

12z FV3-GFS develops much more NE than past runs and GFS legacy develops east of Carolinas.

[SFLcane]

12z FV3-GFS develops much more NE than past runs and GFS legacy develops east of Carolinas.

Indeed rough surf for everyone..

[cycloneye]

12z FV3-GFS develops much more NE than past runs and GFS legacy develops east of Carolinas.

Indeed rough surf for everyone..

Yeah. Legacy bombs it.

[jconsor]

The system that the FV3 GFS develops east of New England is related to an upper low, not to 98L. It does not significantly develop 98L.

12z FV3-GFS develops much more NE than past runs and GFS legacy develops east of Carolinas.

[SFLcane]

The system that the FV3 GFS develops east of New England is related to an upper low, not to 98L. It does not significantly develop 98L.

12z FV3-GFS develops much more NE than past runs and GFS legacy develops east of Carolinas.

Indeed..GFS dropped development on its 12z run.

[ava_ati]

The system that the FV3 GFS develops east of New England is related to an upper low, not to 98L. It does not significantly develop 98L.

12z FV3-GFS develops much more NE than past runs and GFS legacy develops east of Carolinas.

Indeed..GFS dropped development on its 12z run.

ECMWF not doing much with it either, both take most of the vort over FL then getting caught up in the jet, if it can pull itself together off the coast of FL it might have a better shot

[LarryWx]

The bad news is that the 12Z EPS is quite active with numerous TCs including a higher number of Hs. The good news is that practically all of the members keep it safely offshore the US as it heads NE.

[Kingarabian]

CMC surprisingly still doesn't show this lol.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zEuro is indicating that this could be a threat to Nova Scotia but this pro met jconsor said in his tweet happens the New York/New England area may have to watch this area in case this is slower moving up the coast as the ridge could build some and tilt the trough so be vigilant along the entire east Coast

[TheStormExpert]

Euro Ensemble support has surely gone up at 12z.

[SFLcane]

Bams bringing this into SFL..

[cycloneye]

Euro Ensemble support has surely gone up at 12z.

https://i.imgur.com/Jimtwsm.png

That is a very big increase.

[tiger_deF]

18z GFS doesn't even initialize 98L as a low and keeps it pretty much undeveloped as just a scattered pocket of moisture.

[Hurricaneman]

18z GFS doesn't even initialize 98L as a low and keeps it pretty much undeveloped as just a scattered pocket of moisture.

So basically your saying this GFS run is trash, as far as track it’s plausible but it isn’t initializing the mid and low levels right

[HURRICANELONNY]

Models still don`t have a great
handle on this system, with the ECMWF keeping the feature just to
our east as it slides northward up the coast. The GFS has a much
different and very interesting solution, where it appears the
mid- level and low-level circulations get separated as the mid-
level circulation gets pulled northward while the low-level
circulation continues westward across the southern Peninsula. The
GFS favors a weaker overall disturbance, but this solution would
actually translate into more rainfall for South Florida as the
trough would initiate several rounds of widespread showers and
thunderstorms.
I think the euro will win out.

[tiger_deF]

18z GFS doesn't even initialize 98L as a low and keeps it pretty much undeveloped as just a scattered pocket of moisture.

So basically your saying this GFS run is trash, as far as track it’s plausible but it isn’t initializing the mid and low levels right

Pretty much, I'm not that bullish on development bit I definitely think there's at least a localized low pressure area the main ensemble member missed

[ronjon]

Both 18z HWRF and HMON take a weak low through the straits and into the eastern GOM that eventually move into the FL big bend.

[storm4u]

18z Euro?