ATL: ERIN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Chances look to be increasing that this'll be Dorian, might even make it all the way to hurricane status.

[Aric Dunn]

it is definitely moving south of due west the last couple hours.

[boca]

Is it possible that’s it’s an eddy moving south of due west or the actual system.

[Aric Dunn]

Is it possible that’s it’s an eddy moving south of due west or the actual system.

Well typically if its an eddy then it rotating around something which just does not appear to be anything there. or its being pulled to an area of higher convergence which means a larger burst of convection is coming shortly..

or it the actual steering.. I guess we will just have to wait and see.

[Aric Dunn]

The current motion could literally just be the localized pressure drop over cuba from the deep convection. Meaning in a couple hours it should start heading back off to the west.

[boca]

It looks like on satellite that it’s making a turn and lifting north rather than heading west.

[Aric Dunn]

I just really like how the 18z gfs takes this into the gulf, across florida into atlantic just offshore then loops back into gulf and heads into texas as a hurricane lol.

[mitchell]

I just really like how the 18z gfs takes this into the gulf, across florida into atlantic just offshore then loops back into gulf and heads into texas as a hurricane lol.

It does? I thought the 18Z GFS I just looked at sort of stalled it out weakened it off Hatteras and dissipated. What am I missing? Can you link to the run that shows hurricane into texas?

[cycloneye]

Satellite and surface observations show that a broad area of
low pressure has formed just northwest of Andros Island in the
central Bahamas. This system continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend eastward over
the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
over the weekend or early next week while the system moves near the
coast of east-central Florida and then offshore of the southeast
United States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are possible over portions of the central and northwest Bahamas, and
the east-central and southeast Florida peninsula during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[HurricaneIrma]

Possible problem for me here in Wilmington NC?

[Aric Dunn]

I just really like how the 18z gfs takes this into the gulf, across florida into atlantic just offshore then loops back into gulf and heads into texas as a hurricane lol.

It does? I thought the 18Z GFS I just looked at sort of stalled it out weakened it off Hatteras and dissipated. What am I missing? Can you link to the run that shows hurricane into texas?

Watch closely at the 850mb vorticity. Track the energy...very sorry 12z...clear.. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=-24

The 18z still bring the energy back around just does not develop it.

[Kingarabian]

I just really like how the 18z gfs takes this into the gulf, across florida into atlantic just offshore then loops back into gulf and heads into texas as a hurricane lol.

Today's 18z GFS run?

[mitchell]

I just really like how the 18z gfs takes this into the gulf, across florida into atlantic just offshore then loops back into gulf and heads into texas as a hurricane lol.

It does? I thought the 18Z GFS I just looked at sort of stalled it out weakened it off Hatteras and dissipated. What am I missing? Can you link to the run that shows hurricane into texas?

Watch closely at the 850mb vorticity. Track the energy...very clear.. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=-24

Thats the 12 z. I'm not seeing it on 18Z

[storm4u]

I just really like how the 18z gfs takes this into the gulf, across florida into atlantic just offshore then loops back into gulf and heads into texas as a hurricane lol.

It does? I thought the 18Z GFS I just looked at sort of stalled it out weakened it off Hatteras and dissipated. What am I missing? Can you link to the run that shows hurricane into texas?

Watch closely at the 850mb vorticity. Track the energy...very sorry 12z...clear.. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=-24

The 18z still bring the energy back around just does not develop it.

12z? 18z doesn't have a hurricane into Texas

[Aric Dunn]

Radar showing a little more shallow convection filling in.

[boca]

I think we will have a dry weekend in South Florida since we will be on the dry side of the system we can use it.

[Aric Dunn]

The circ is still moving south of due west.


And at this rate. There will be two seperate systems considering how much mid level energy is so far away from this. Lol

[ronjon]

The circ is still moving south of due west.


And at this rate. There will be two seperate systems considering how much mid level energy is so far away from this. Lol

Looks like the GFS solution with the energy splitting...mid level center up the east coast and LLC up into the SE GOM.

[NDG]

According to the latest 18z Euro the LLC west of Andros will continue moving west towards S FL and will eventually die off while a new one reforms further north late tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

Location: 25.1°N 78.8°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1015 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1017 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM