ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Kingarabian]

12z CMC has a track similar to the Euro but stronger.

[gatorcane]

Both the Euro and GFS show a building and expanding Bermuda High ridge after a week so 99l may not have recurve out to sea route if it heads north of the islands:

[AutoPenalti]

Siding with the Euro on this one, MDR is still too hostile and shear is waiting for it in the Caribbean.

That's a bold strategy, given that run practically caved to the GFS wrt development

That dry air mass is still in place. It hasn’t gone anywhere.

[CrazyC83]

If this is going to be significant, it probably needs to go north of the islands. The eastern Caribbean looks like a graveyard, but the subtropical Atlantic looks ready to go.

[cycloneye]

Anyone have the ensembles from GFS and Euro?

[TheStormExpert]

Anyone have the ensembles from GFS and Euro?

Here are the 12z GFS and Euro Ensembles.

[SFLcane]

Anyone have the ensembles from GFS and Euro?

[Highteeld]

[Kingarabian]

Anyone have the ensembles from GFS and Euro?

Through 10 days: 12z EPS has about 4 members (1004mb or lower) developing this with tracks similar to the operation Euro.

[SFLcane]

Few hurricanes there in the bahamas..

[Hurricaneman]

In 7 days the 18zGFS is showing a strong tropical storm near Puerto Rico, similar track to the Euro, may be bad news for Hispaniola with this track, if this goes 50 to 100 miles north of that Florida could have some trouble, it all depends on when the weakness fills in

[LarryWx]

Anyone have the ensembles from GFS and Euro?

https://i.imgur.com/F4mFW1f.png

Fwiw, that 979 mb EPS member at day 10 hits Ft. Pierce, FL, 2 days later (9/4) as a formidable H. One other member hits as a 992ish storm the same day. Otherwise, there are no major hits through the 15 day run.

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS with a TS into the Lesser Antilles and a hurricane slams and gets shredded by Hispaniola. Need to watch future runs to see if it’s just the “Happy Hour” GFS doing its thing or a real deal since shear doesn’t seem to be an issue this run.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

In 7 days the 18zGFS is showing a strong tropical storm near Puerto Rico, similar track to the Euro, may be bad news for Hispaniola with this track, if this goes 50 to 100 miles north of that Florida could have some trouble, it all depends on when the weakness fills in

Full-res shows a Cat 1 hurricane.

[LarryWx]

18Z GEFS: 4 of ~21 members hit the CONUS as a TS+: 2 on 9/5 (S FL/LA/TX border), SE LA 9/6, LA/TX border 9/8

[Cpv17]

Decent chance this makes it into the Gulf if it can survive. Should be fun to track.

[Cpv17]

18Z GEFS: 4 of ~21 members hit the CONUS as a TS+: 2 on 9/5 (S FL/LA/TX border), SE LA 9/6, LA/TX border 9/8

Yet the op slams it into Mexico as a cat 1 or 2.

[Hurricaneman]

At the end of the 18zGFS run has a final landfalling hurricane near Veracruz from this, This is probably going to change many times before we know the final outcome

[NDG]

This is how bad the Euro missed 99L.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This is how bad the Euro missed 99L.

https://i.imgur.com/Sk7EGdj.gif

What's funny is that the ECMWF is a higher resolution model than the GFS, yet somehow cannot pick this system up.