ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Dry sinking airmass will probably prevent this system from developing the euro just poofs it as it nears the islands.

[TheStormExpert]

Dry sinking airmass will probably prevent this system from developing the euro just poofs it as it nears the islands.

The Euro had its strongest run yet, and not to mention it struggles with these small Tropical Atlantic systems.

[NikhilTri]

Dry sinking airmass will probably prevent this system from developing the euro just poofs it as it nears the islands.

The euro happens to have completely screwed this one up so far. Not sure we should be trusting it for this particular system.

[zhukm29]

Dry sinking airmass will probably prevent this system from developing the euro just poofs it as it nears the islands.

The euro happens to have completely screwed this one up so far. Not sure we should be trusting it for this particular system.

Models shouldn't be treated as "always right" or "always wrong." Modeling tropical cyclones is a difficult process because of how complex it is, and the EURO still remains a good model even if it isn't correct 100% of the time. Every model has its successes and failures. Just because the EURO missed cyclogenesis here doesn't mean it will be complete garbage on the system from here on out.

Also note that the accuracy of the model also depends on the data it is fed in. There are many factors at play here. That being said, the GFS does have a better track record so far, so let's see if it can continue that accuracy from here on out.

[NikhilTri]

Dry sinking airmass will probably prevent this system from developing the euro just poofs it as it nears the islands.

The euro happens to have completely screwed this one up so far. Not sure we should be trusting it for this particular system.

Models shouldn't be treated as "always right" or "always wrong." Modeling tropical cyclones is a difficult process because of how complex it is, and the EURO still remains a good model even if it isn't correct 100% of the time. Every model has its successes and failures. Just because the EURO missed cyclogenesis here doesn't mean it will be complete garbage on the system from here on out.

Also note that the accuracy of the model also depends on the data it is fed in. There are many factors at play here. That being said, the GFS does have a better track record so far, so let's see if it can continue that accuracy from here on out.

Yup my point was I'd side more with the GFS with this one just because the euro seems to be playing catch up (and also because of real-time trends). The euro is still a better model overall, I was just talking about this specific situation

[Visioen]

:uarrow: Yes indeed. GFS long range forecasting past 7 days has been so much.improved, not just only with the tropics, but with winter-time synoptics as well.

The GFS has definitely improved this year when compared to former years. The other day it was right on the money in showing Barbados and the Windward Islands would get rain, over a week in advance. Someone's been doing some tweaking!

GFS in former years was legacy GFS, this is FV3-GFS, so that would explain things

[Hammy]

Convection goes poof, though could be a sign it's separating from the ITCZ.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection goes poof, though could be a sign it's separating from the ITCZ.

I see a bunch of overshooting tops developing within that convective band. will see if that expands. otherwise it still looks good.

[SFLcane]

Convection goes poof, though could be a sign it's separating from the ITCZ.

Definitely needs a good overnight convective cycle to avoid falling apart. most of the ecmwf ensemble members still don't develop it.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1165011826423357442

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Convection goes poof, though could be a sign it's separating from the ITCZ.

This is why I wasn't sold on this developing before 98L. Separation from the ITCZ has caused many great looking disturbances to fall apart quickly, especially during diurnal cycles.

[captainbarbossa19]

Convection goes poof, though could be a sign it's separating from the ITCZ.

This is why I wasn't sold on this developing before 98L. Separation from the ITCZ has caused many great looking disturbances to fall apart quickly, especially during diurnal cycles.

Hopefully this is not going to be a system that fails to develop at first, but then moves into a more favorable area and rapidly develops a little too close to land.

[Hurricaneman]

The track of this all depends on when the ridge builds back in, could be a Caribbean cruiser if the ridge fills in faster than modeled but if the ridge takes more time to fill in this could be a big threat to the Bahamas and Florida and possibly somewhere in the GOM so anyone from all the Caribbean islands to all the Gulf states to Belize need to keep tabs on this

[Monsoonjr99]

99L is 99L-ing

[Aric Dunn]

couple big hot towers back to back in the convective band. still looking quite good.

[Hurricaneman]

The path of this also depends on how fast 98L moves away before 99L gets there as if 98L is slightly slower it would Allow 99L to go north of the islands and vise Versa is possible too

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1165042208615075846

[NotSparta]

The convection is in bad shape currently, but there isn't much saying it's dry or stable air. It seems more that it's separating from the ITCZ

[cycloneye]

Satellite imagery suggests that the circulation associated with an
area of low pressure located about 1100 miles east-southeast of
the Windward Islands has become better defined, but the thunderstorm
activity is limited at this time. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend or early next week while it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Kazmit]

They still increased the chances for development... my guess is that the decrease in convection is only temporary.