ATL: ERIN - Models

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the GFS finally jumped onboard

[wxman57]

I plotted some of the better tropical models. Removed Canadian, NOGAPS, and any climo-based model.

[gatorcane]

Whoa JMA which is normally conservative:

[Aric Dunn]

12z EPS.. looks like a little kid with a pencil lol

[DioBrando]

wat




uk met office

[Hammy]

GFS seems like it's having a difficult time initializing because it's been consistent in developing this more slowly than what's actually happening.

Edit: Model support collapsing entirely with the 00z runs. Either bad data or the fact that it went west means development is less likely.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Feeling like its running out of time as land interaction will happen soon.

Still a big rain event.

[gatorcane]

CMC still with no development, stingy model as far as showing genesis this year in general. Not used to the Euro showing development while the CMC shows zilch. The Canadians seemed to have made some appropriate adjustments to the model.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z ECMWF coming in significantly weaker.

[Kingarabian]

CMC still with no development, stingy model as far as showing genesis this year in general. Not used to the Euro showing development while the CMC shows zilch. The Canadians seemed to have made some appropriate adjustments to the model.

I've noticed this since about the middle of last season but thought it was some sort of gimmick.

It's almost coming to the point where if the CMC doesn't show anything then to move along. Lol.

[Hammy]

Mesoscale models appear to have given up on developing anything out of this--shear is far too strong as we can't get these nonstop troughs to stop moving through (though at least it's keeping the temperatures down)