ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

the convection may be limited but the convective pattern is very telling.

currently, its expanding slowly over the center. looks like it might maintain.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Satellite Imagery:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=al992019
http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satelli ... &lon=-53.5 From: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=12 From: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/
https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?center ... obalir-avn
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=g ... 24-0-100-1
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 535&y=8134
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir From: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/
https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/floaters/
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_h ... km&PROD=ir From: https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

[Hammy]

Probably a depression now, but also probably has a limited window if it's going to get upgraded as I'm seeing some easterly shear starting to move in.

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99L)

B. 24/0000Z

C. 10.3N

D. 45.0W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[AutoPenalti]

Don’t see much from this system, in my opinion the Euro might get this right. We are just in an unfavorable background state. It won’t get any better from here on out as easterly shear is about to hit it and dry air will be moving in tandem with 99L.

[MetroMike]

Don’t see much from this system, in my opinion the Euro might get this right. We are just in an unfavorable background state. It won’t get any better from here on out as easterly shear is about to hit it and dry air will be moving in tandem with 99L.

If the system can keep a circulation maybe it would fend off any dry air intrusions.

[AutoPenalti]

Don’t see much from this system, in my opinion the Euro might get this right. We are just in an unfavorable background state. It won’t get any better from here on out as easterly shear is about to hit it and dry air will be moving in tandem with 99L.

If the system can keep a circulation maybe it would fend off any dry air intrusions.

A very small system is easily susceptible to changes within the environment surrounding it. That being said, I find that it will only take just 10kts of easterly shear and a bit of dry air entrainment to tear this apart before it does any damage to anyone in the islands.

[cycloneye]

Location: 10.1°N 45.2°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1012 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1014 mb
Radius of Circulation: 90 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 30 NM

[NDG]

I don't see any upgrade for at least the next 12 hours as it has only improved just a little compared to earlier pass.

[Aric Dunn]

If convection keeps up like this overnight they will likely upgrade in the morning.

[Highteeld]

Decent curve band, but cloud tops not too impressive at this time

[Nancy Smar]

WTNT22 KNGU 240000
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/FLEWEACEN NORFOLK VA/231900Z AUG 19//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 231900)//
RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1N 45.0W
TO 11.2N 51.8W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. EARLIER ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE AREA OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST
OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 TO 17 KT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 250000Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 79.9W //

[Aric Dunn]

Continues to improve. no longer attached to the ITCZ. for the NHC just a little more convection ( which looks like it might be starting) and it should be upgraded in the morning or evening tomorrow. likely straight to TS by that time.

[northjaxpro]

Convection firing now. Thst curved bsnd reay looks impressi e spiraling nto the center. . Simply, should the convection fully fills the center and sustains this will be TS Dorian tomorrow..

[AxaltaRacing24]

Convevtion firing now. Thst curved bsnd reay looks impressi e dpirslling into the center. . Simply, should the convection fully fills the center and sustsins this will be TS Dorian tomorrow..

Yeah imo this is well on its way to a ts or td very soon if this trend continues.

[Aric Dunn]

ohhh. latest image show a small hot tower starting on the se side... I like to called them leaders.. but i bet we see a burst very shortly..

[Hurricaneman]

The system will need to be watched in the Lesser Antilles and may be a hurricane by then but what’s interesting is the GFS degenerates this due to an ULL and the trade surge and an analog that keeps popping into my head is Harvey with what the GFS is showing but as we all know every system is different and this may get caught up in the islands and dissipate

[Aric Dunn]

The system will need to be watched in the Lesser Antilles and may be a hurricane by then but what’s interesting is the GFS degenerates this due to an ULL and the trade surge and an analog that keeps popping into my head is Harvey with what the GFS is showing but as we all know every system is different and this may get caught up in the islands and dissipate

yeah, however the models are notoriously bad with small TC's that are hurricanes in the eastern carrib. if this becomes a strong TS it wont have any issues in the carrib from the flow.

the ULL and shear that is a different story.

[Ubuntwo]

The system will need to be watched in the Lesser Antilles and may be a hurricane by then but what’s interesting is the GFS degenerates this due to an ULL and the trade surge and an analog that keeps popping into my head is Harvey with what the GFS is showing but as we all know every system is different and this may get caught up in the islands and dissipate

yeah, however the models are notoriously bad with small TC's that are hurricanes in the eastern carrib. if this becomes a strong TS it wont have any issues in the carrib from the flow.

the ULL and shear that is a different story.

The GFS also regenerates this into a 973mb hurricane in the western carib.

[Hurricaneman]

Here are 6 possible scenarios that could happen most likely IMO to least likely

1. Hits the Lesser Antilles and dissipates over the greater Antilles and kind of tries to regenerate in the GOM but is only an area of moisture for Texas and Louisiana 30%

2. Goes south of the islands and weakens in the eastern Caribbean and comes together in the western Caribbean and becomes a hurricane for Texas. 20%

3. Goes south of the Greater Antilles, doesn’t weaken much and explodes in the western Caribbean and makes a major landfall between Houston and New Orleans 20%

4. Goes north of the greater Antilles and explodes in the Bahamas and makes landfall as a major hurricane in south Florida 15%

5. Stays south of the greater Antilles strengthens in the western Caribbean, turns north into the Yucatán Channel and makes landfall as a major hurricane between Pensacola and Ft Myers 10%

6. See tropical Storm Erin 2015 where it never really gets its act together 5%

This could change and I could be wrong

Also looking at the models any of the top 3 have a good shot at happening