ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Cpv17]

This is how bad the Euro missed 99L.

https://i.imgur.com/Sk7EGdj.gif

Wow

[cycloneye]

HWRF doing it's usual thing.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

HWRF doing it's usual thing.

https://i.imgur.com/beVf9qd.png

Not likely but not impossible this could be like Danny in 2015.

[gatorcane]

The only reason the 18Z GFS weakened this was due to going over Hispaniola. Had this gone just 100 miles more north, I think it would have shown something much more significant heading W to WNW into the Bahamas. It shows the Bermuda High ridge building westward into the SE US (192 hours shown) and an upper low moving west in tandem with 99l so it can’t shear it (168 hours). Below you can see the upper low over Eastern Cuba and 99l over Puerto Rico:

[sma10]

The only reason the 18Z GFS weakened this was due to going over Hispaniola. Had this gone just 100 miles more north, I think it would have shown something much more significant heading W to WNW into the Bahamas. It shows the Bermuda High ridge building westward into the SE US (192 hours shown) and an upper low moving west in tandem with 99l so it can’t shear it (168 hours). Below you can see the upper low over Eastern Cuba and 99l over Puerto Rico:

https://i.postimg.cc/Bnc54sPw/gfs-shear-watl-29.png

https://i.postimg.cc/446x83DM/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-33.png

7 days out. I always say "if you're in the bullseye 7 days out it's the safest place to be" because the model is never going to be that pinpoint accurate. This tells me 99L is likely to NOT go over Hispaniola

[NDG]

This is how bad the Euro missed 99L.

https://i.imgur.com/Sk7EGdj.gif

What's funny is that the ECMWF is a higher resolution model than the GFS, yet somehow cannot pick this system up.

For some reason it has been doing horrible with low latitude waves, I have noticed it all season long with the waves that were stronger than what it showed when they approached the southern windward islands.

[Highteeld]

[cycloneye]

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/nLiR6mL.png

That’s quite some agreement for 144 hours out.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

https://i.imgur.com/nLiR6mL.png

Guaranteed death by windshear/land interaction if that path unfolds.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z GFS much weaker through 120 hours, however it continues to show the possibility this system may have a much better chance of development past Jamaica (if it goes that far south).

[Highteeld]

The end of the GFS sure was interesting

[MetroMike]

The end of the GFS sure was interesting

https://i.imgur.com/Ld72CgC.png

Seems unlikely given the time of year for that track.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The end of the GFS sure was interesting

https://i.imgur.com/Ld72CgC.png

Seems unlikely given the time of year for that track.

Not really, see Harvey (slightly north) and Dean (further south).

[Ubuntwo]

The end of the GFS sure was interesting

https://i.imgur.com/Ld72CgC.png

Seems unlikely given the time of year for that track.

It’s very unlikely, but not like it has no climo backing. Harvey had a very similar track around the same time of year.

[Hurricaneman]

And the 1900 hurricane and Gilbert so paths like the GFS are showing have happened before

[MetroMike]

The end of the GFS sure was interesting

https://i.imgur.com/Ld72CgC.png

Seems unlikely given the time of year for that track.

It’s very unlikely, but not like it has no climo backing. Harvey had a very similar track around the same time of year.

Yes I had that in mind but not a normal occurrence for Texas around September.

[Hammy]

And the 1900 hurricane and Gilbert so paths like the GFS are showing have happened before

Beulah in 1967 as well, almost a full month from now.

[Hammy]

Euro now clearly shows a small tropical storm, vs 24 hours ago.

[Wx_Warrior]

And poof its gone on EURO 0z