ATL: ERIN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Actually Aric, your depiction of the LLC is spot.on.The NHC and WPC Surface Analysis 00Z had the 1013 mb feature inland Dade County, traversing into the Everglades. It seems as if it wants to trek along Alligator Alley. It looks as if the LLC is drifting across the extreme Southern Tip of the peninsula.

[Blown Away]

It seems every storm near Florida has that NHC track/cone hugging the coast line. Crazy how often it happens.

[northjaxpro]

18Z GFS and 12Z Canadian earlier today each have LLC moving to Naples by 12Z tomorrow morning. Also, each move 98L LLC north/northeast during Saturdaya ross South Florida and into East - Central Florida and then diffuses the LLC as a new LLC develops off the coast of Cape Canaveral by 06Z Sunday mornng

[Hammy]

18Z GFS and 12Z Canadian earlier today each have LLC moving to Naples by 12Z tomorrow morning. Also, each move 98L LLC north/northeast during Saturdaya ross South Florida and into East - Central Florida and then diffuses the LLC as a new LLC develops off the coast of Cape Canaveral by 06Z Sunday mornng

This looks fairly similar to what the NAM is showing, and even easier to see with more frequent frames.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah Hammy you are right. I saw the NAM as well and even that model seemed to have a handle on this in the short term and normally I don' t take the NAM too seriously with tropical synoptics. But, hey credit to the model indeed when it is due!

[Evil Jeremy]

This has been a pleasantly weird, harmless anomaly to track the past couple days.

[northjaxpro]

The new 00z GFS shows LLC of 98L drifting to near Lake Okeechobee by 18Z tomorrow and then reaching the coast near Melbourne late afternoon tomorrow. GFS keeps the LLC very broad and elongated on tonight's 00Z run off the coast of Esst'Central and Northeast Florida and drifts the LLC off to the northeast on Sunday.

I am thinking if they upgrade it to TD it will probably be tomorrow night at the earliest. I think during the day Sunday will be most likely. We will see how it goes.

[Aric Dunn]

The new 00z GFS shows LLC of 98L drifting to near Lake Okeechobee by 18Z tomorrow and then reaching the coast near Melbourne late afternoo.n tomorfow. GFS keeps the LLC very broad and elongated on tonight's 00Z run off the coast of Northeast Florida and drifts ir off to the northeast on Sunday.

I am thinking if they upgrade it to TD it will probably be tomorrow night at the earliest. I think during the day Sunday will be most likely. We will see how it goes.

yeah not till off the coast again.

unless it sits over lake okeechobee and turns into a Cat5 lol

[Aric Dunn]

thumb ridge still holding strong.

[northjaxpro]

98L really has not moved much att all today, especially since around 15Z Fridsy. It has just been a very slow drift west/ northwest. The narrow upper ttough axis through the Florida Peninsula has held very tough. It has kept that mid level dry air over the region and has inhibited 98L's development in the short term as convection is not being able to sustain for any.lengthy durstions.

[Aric Dunn]

98L really has not moved much att all todsy, especially since around 15Z Fridsy. It has just been a very slow drift west/ northeest. The narrow upper ttough through the Florida Peninsula has hels very tough. It has kept that mid level dry air over the region and has inhibited 98L's development in the short term as convection is not being able to sustain for any.lengthy durstions.

Yeppers.. if it sits too long then it will get trapped..

[northjaxpro]

Also, the thumb ridge may keep 98L much closer to the coast and may not get.picked up to get far out to sea as we get into next week. 00z GFS tun tonight realky keeps 98L meandering around off the NC/SC coasts for the earky part of next week.

Ridging may indeed be stronger next week to potentially trap this entity closer to the SE US Atlantic Coast . I am monitoring that in the next few days and watching to see if EURO and UKMET will do runs similar t o what tonight's 06Z GFS is showing in medium range (next 5-7 days)

[Aric Dunn]

THe 00z HWRF and HNOM both take this current llc west of naples a goo bit then jump to east coast.

but looking closer. they split the system. the llc currently does not die.. just meanders.

[Hurricaneman]

Those saying this may sit off the east coast near the Bahamas may have a point if this gets trapped its got the highest heat content other than the Caribbean to work with, may still have to watch it in the Carolinas all the way down to Florida if it gets trapped and sent west to WSW by the ridge

[Hurricaneman]

Just noticed that the 0zGFS does trap it as part of it splits off and sends it to Texas, that would be crazy but not out of the realm of possibility if it doesn’t move much

[BobHarlem]

It looks to be just south of Lake O right now after looking at this long radar loop http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?458 It'll probably start curving up toward Melbourne later today.

[GCANE]

UL Trough has dug down into Cuba.
Not much going to happen until this clears out.

[GCANE]

Looks like surface low is somewhere close to Lake O

[northjaxpro]

: Yes, NHC /WPC 06Z surface analysis has 98L's LLC just south or near Lake Okeechobee. 1012 mb is the Pressure.

Looks like the LLC will be moving directly over Lake O this morming.

[northjaxpro]

Also, the NHC introduced the subtropical development possibility of this system in their disvussion in the 2 a.m. TWO earlier this morning once this moves off shore into the Atlantic.

UL trough really sharpened the past 24 hours, south all the way down to Cuba. This has kept a good amount of mid-level dry air to continue down through the Flotida Peninsula and hindering 98L organization.

Once into the Atlantic, I can see the center staying very broad and elongated, with the convection being removed off and away from the center. Yeah, this indeed could get a subttropical designation