2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[DioBrando]

5. August 15th: Models show nothing in the near-future. Many are becoming skeptical about the season amounting to anything significant.

This seems to be about the time when even the experts start cancelling the season. Then they completely change their tune within a week or two.

this. this this this. just waiting for klotzy's new 2-week forecast to call for something different.

[DioBrando]

It's almost as if Avila jinxed the Atlantic in his tweet, as the bell has indeed rung on August 20. Looks like season cancel season is over.

Through July I had held on to my preseason numbers of 16-9-4, as ENSO was indeed cooling as I expected and I knew activity normally doesn't pick up that much in the early season. But as August dragged on without much activity and the updated models didn't show squat, even I (a bit bullish lol) started lowering my numbers (also considering the past couple active seasons after this point on the calendar). A few days ago I had even brought it down to a near-average 12-6-3 in my post in the September numbers thread, mainly considering past seasons' numbers after that date but still expecting an uptick in activity mainly later in the season. Now with the lid seeming to come off now rather than sometime in September, I think I may have jumped the gun a bit especially with H and M numbers. Since 2019 is now at 3-1-0, 2018 had 10 NSs after this date (2017 had 9), and perhaps favorable conditions in October could still make this year a bit backloaded like 2001 (more late activity than the past two years?), I'd go with 14 NSs in 2019 (11 after this date). ENSO is cool and WAM remains strong, but the MDR isn't as warm as say 2017 (still warmer than 2018), so I'd go between the past two years after this date for Hs and Ms. 2017 had 8 Hs and 2018 had 6 after August 23, so I'd go with 7 more after Barry. All majors of both the past two years happened after today (Harvey about to blow up) following the expected climo, so I'd split the difference and say 4 majors in 2019 (makes sense given SSTs).

14-8-4 sounds about right for this year as somewhat above average, though perhaps slightly higher if 2019 pulls a 2001. Maybe the ratio could be strong this year.

especially seeing that while the shear is petering out and dry air finally going away thanks to rising cells SLOWLY coming over to the atlantic, the waters are plenty toasty according to those recent sst maps. the atlantic had time to fuel up rather than many weak storms trying to use up the energy. lots of treats to share for each storm.

[captainbarbossa19]

5. August 15th: Models show nothing in the near-future. Many are becoming skeptical about the season amounting to anything significant.

This seems to be about the time when even the experts start cancelling the season. Then they completely change their tune within a week or two.

this. this this this. just waiting for klotzy's new 2-week forecast to call for something different.

I wonder why many experts start making calls about the season so early? It seems like they would decide to wait until there is more certainty. They seem to always issue their forecast right before something happens. Hahaha!

[captainbarbossa19]

However, I will say that no one has been proven right or wrong about the season as a whole yet (unless someone said that Chantal would never make it).

[DioBrando]

This seems to be about the time when even the experts start cancelling the season. Then they completely change their tune within a week or two.

this. this this this. just waiting for klotzy's new 2-week forecast to call for something different.

I wonder why many experts start making calls about the season so early? It seems like they would decide to wait until there is more certainty. They seem to always issue their forecast right before something happens. Hahaha!

i've no idea hehe

[MetroMike]

this. this this this. just waiting for klotzy's new 2-week forecast to call for something different.

I wonder why many experts start making calls about the season so early? It seems like they would decide to wait until there is more certainty. They seem to always issue their forecast right before something happens. Hahaha!

i've no idea hehe

By next week at this time we could have nada out there again.

[captainbarbossa19]

I wonder why many experts start making calls about the season so early? It seems like they would decide to wait until there is more certainty. They seem to always issue their forecast right before something happens. Hahaha!

i've no idea hehe

By next week at this time we could have nada out there again.

I concur. Anything is possible at this point.

[Hammy]

The big monsoonal gyre that's been generating so much dust has moved out over the Atlantic and while it looks like it'll pull the first wave north with it (the big X) the two behind it might be the first two MDR systems of September if the background state is favorable.

[DioBrando]

https://i.imgur.com/xPZPNIy.png The big monsoonal gyre that's been generating so much dust has moved out over the Atlantic and while it looks like it'll pull the first wave north with it (the big X) the two behind it might be the first two MDR systems of September if the background state is favorable.

Potential Fernand and Gabby?

[Hammy]

https://i.imgur.com/xPZPNIy.png The big monsoonal gyre that's been generating so much dust has moved out over the Atlantic and while it looks like it'll pull the first wave north with it (the big X) the two behind it might be the first two MDR systems of September if the background state is favorable.

Potential Fernand and Gabby?

Looks it. The switch appears to have flipped though it'll probably be another week before we know for sure.

[DioBrando]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1165098122328100864





Not again!

[AnnularCane]

This is Michael Ventrice of "won't be able to buy a hurricane in September" fame. He may wind up being right about this but you never really know.

[1900hurricane]

The 0º-60ºE is still an extremely favorable area for upward velocity potential in the NAtl, especially for Cape Verde hurricanes. Check out where the VPA was in 1999 and 2010 at the tail end of August.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Models are backing off on development going into September and the Atlantic may stay quite dead. We shall see.

[DioBrando]

Models are backing off on development going into September and the Atlantic may stay quite dead. We shall see.

I checked the models today and they seem to support favorable conditions.

[DioBrando]

The 0º-60ºE is still an extremely favorable area for upward velocity potential in the NAtl, especially for Cape Verde hurricanes. Check out where the VPA was in 1999 and 2010 at the tail end of August.

https://i.imgur.com/KCbnhgo.gif

https://i.imgur.com/mcoQS45.gif

This could mean we get little C4 fish about?

[Hammy]

CFS does not appear to have any larger systems or major hurricanes in seven of the last ten runs, and the most recent two look very dead through most of the season, with maybe 5-6 weaker systems. It's looking fairly likely that whatever happens with TD5 and 98L, whether they manage to strengthen or (in TD5's case) find more favorable conditions down the road, or if they simply don't organize much more beyond where they are, is going to preview how the rest of the season's going to go, because it appears the current conditions are going to last the remainder of the season, as we're approaching the time of the year where the real meat is thrown at us.

[CyclonicFury]

CFS does not appear to have any larger systems or major hurricanes in seven of the last ten runs, and the most recent two look very dead through most of the season, with maybe 5-6 weaker systems. It's looking fairly likely that whatever happens with TD5 and 98L, whether they manage to strengthen or (in TD5's case) find more favorable conditions down the road, or if they simply don't organize much more beyond where they are, is going to preview how the rest of the season's going to go, because it appears the current conditions are going to last the remainder of the season, as we're approaching the time of the year where the real meat is thrown at us.

I wouldn't put a lot of trust into the CFS - wasn't it consistently showing an absolutely dead August? Long-range models have been pretty bad this season.

[NotSparta]

Models are backing off on development going into September and the Atlantic may stay quite dead. We shall see.

lol here we go again

[CyclonicFury]

So a few weak model runs and the season cancellers come back?